2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[Ntxw]

Yeah I see a lot of MCS potential. People along the dry line in NW TX, SW Oklahoma and along the Red River needs to keep an eye. Storms ahead of the squall line and ones that initiate have a lot of instability to work with. Lots of wind and hail damage potential.

[EF-5bigj]

Where I live is about to get a drenching it seem's im not seeing any hail cores though just rain lots and lots of rain.

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk remains in effect.


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL KS...MUCH OF OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SRN NEB TO NRN TX...EWD TO NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
CONVECTION REMAIN. LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR ACROSS KS IS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES NOW APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG NRN PLUME OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME ONE OR
MORE MCS-TYPE STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NWRN KS WITH
SUBSEQUENT SEWD MOVEMENT INTO OK EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE TORNADO PROBS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK DUE TO THE EXPECTED MCS STORM MODE.

ADDITIONALLY...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CU FIELD IS DEEPENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SECONDARY N-S ZONE OF TSTMS COULD EVOLVE
ACROSS THIS REGION OF TX JUST WEST OF INFLUENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORTS VERY
LARGE HAIL AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXTENDED THE THREAT FOR SIG HAIL
TO INCLUDE DRYLINE STORMS.

DOWNSTREAM...A MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING STORMS. MUCH DRIER AND
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIST ACROSS NERN MS/NRN AL AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 05/30/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

...SRN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK...
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL AND MORNING CONVECTION OVER OK INTO
TX...WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND
SATELLITE DATA OVER TX. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARIES...SELY SURFACE
WINDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE NWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE EXTENDING
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF SRN NEB. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS OF WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA ENHANCED BY
STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF THE EML. AS CLOUDS
DIMINISH EAST OF A N/S SURFACE TROUGH FROM EXTREME ERN CO SWD INTO
WEST TX...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REACHING
2500-3500 J/KG...WHILE GRADUALLY REDUCING THE CAP STRENGTH. THIS
PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL PREDICTIONS OF
CONVECTION...GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AND WRN
OK...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN TX. WIND PROFILES
EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SSELY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WESTERLY IN THE MID LEVELS...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES.
THE ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCS/S BY THIS
EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/SEWD...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS/S.

...SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NRN KS...
ELEVATED STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS /SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 977 FOR MORE
DETAILS./

...ERN AR INTO SWRN TN/WRN MS NERN LA...
A BAND OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD INTO ERN AR AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SRN MO INTO WRN AR. LOW LEVEL
HEATING IN THE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

...ERN NC...
THE WIND PROFILE FROM KMHX SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...AND SEVERAL TRANSIENT
ROTATIONAL COUPLETS HAVE BEEN INDICATED WHERE CG LIGHTING HAS
INCREASED. POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR AN ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 5% TORNADO AREA
/SLGT RISK/ HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for Friday June 1rst.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
EASTERN STATES...

...MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES...
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL SEE THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE PARENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TREND
TOWARD A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ON FRIDAY...WITH A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING BELT OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES.

ACCORDINGLY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A DIURNALLY
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SUCH THAT A BROAD AREA OF
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SEEMS LIKELY FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN PA...ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA. THAT SAID...LOCALLY
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS/GA/NORTH FL ALBEIT WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR REGIME.

OVERALL...DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AT THAT/ AND SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THAT SAID...SOME SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT...COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS VA/DELMARVA REGION INTO SOUTHERN
PA/NJ PROVIDED 1/ SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND 2/ SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AMID RELATIVELY NEBULOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ISOLATED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR/EAST OF A HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW/TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS
INCLUDES A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO/EASTERN NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AS FAR SOUTHWEST KS. MOISTURE CONTENT/BUOYANCY WILL BE
MODEST...BUT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/PERHAPS
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT LEAST
ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.



A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME AFTER DARK MAY
ALLOW FOR SUSTENANCE OF A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS...OR MORE SO A SEPARATE
AREA OF LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

...DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH...ISOLATED/RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A FAST-MOVING/CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED /GENERALLY 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ GIVEN
SHORT-TERM TRAJECTORIES. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK CAPE
IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

...NORTHERN CA/NV TO ORE/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION/PW VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE ON A VERY LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT
APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 05/31/2012

[cycloneye]

Here is an articule that talks about this 2012 season after starting very active it has for the most part been more quiet in terms of big outbreaks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47635191/ns ... e-science/

[wx247]

Two areas of severe weather focus today, both slight risk in nature.

[angelwing]

Ack, I'm in the yellow

[Ntxw]

I'm willing to bet March was the peak. Jet stream configuration has not been favorable for outbreaks and doesn't look so for at least another week. No real large digging trough with powerful jet winds. Maybe locally some tornadoes and severe weather but a lot of these storms will cut off in the SW under ridges and mostly be rain makers according to latest euro. Almost June like rather than May. Teleconnections and analog years do not favor an over productive month. We sha'll see! After what happened last year I will gladly welcome the tranquility, especially in areas hit hardest.

This was a good call early in the month. And to back up Cycloneye's post here is the preliminary SPC report count (note it is reports and not actual verification but general outcome is expected). Most important number on this list for May is that 0 fatalies were from tornadoes, quite a blessing. March indeed was the peak with that one large outbreak early month. Overall it's been about an average year for tornadoes and below the 3 year average.

[cycloneye]

More video of 2012 tornadoes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... _w8c_LzzPc

[cycloneye]

Days 4-8 outlook

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAINS
QUITE GOOD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS APPEARS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD /SAT. JUNE 9 THROUGH MON. JUNE
11/. IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
REGION MAY CONFINE GREATER STORM COVERAGE TO AREAS N OF THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER ARE SEEN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS.

STILL...WITH A STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED
FLOW FIELD ALOFT -- EJECTING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT. THUS -- WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SEVERE THREAT...WITH AREAS EXTENDING FROM THE ND VICINITY EWD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 5-7.

..GOSS.. 06/05/2012

[Cyclenall]

This is something you don't see every season. In fact, I've never seen this:



That agreement must be pretty tight. If only there was a Day 8 right on top of me...

[WeatherGuesser]

This is something you don't see every season. In fact, I've never seen this:

I have. More than once.


If anybody's keeping track, 3 Fatal in Diehlstadt, MO EF2 a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 7-8...BUT SOME TIMING/EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES EVOLVE BY
DAY 5 /MON. JUNE 11/ WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE ADJACENT N CENTRAL U.S./UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT DAY 5 -- AND ON
INTO DAY 6 AND DAY 7 AS THIS STORM SYSTEM CROSSES ERN NOAM AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AREAL
ISSUANCE FROM DAY 5 ONWARD. INSTEAD...FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON
THE MORE CONSISTENTLY-FORECAST DAY 4 /SUN. JUNE 10/ TIME FRAME.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS FORECAST ACROSS MN -- POSSIBLY
EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI...AND WITH LESSER BUT
APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. WITH A
MODERATELY DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
FASTER UPPER FLOW EXTENDING EWD ATOP THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS -- AND
ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 06/07/2012

[brunota2003]

A couple pictures from up here at/near Fort Drum yesterday:

Picture I took here at Fort Drum yesterday, looking north. That cell is the storm that prompted the southern severe thunderstorm warning, and had radar indicated rotation. The rotation, by that point, had already weakened by the time the storm really came into that clear slot. Taken at 6:10 pm.

This image was taken last night just outside of Fort Drum (near Black River), at 9:03 pm, of a gust front right before it pushed through. Sorry the image is blurry, it was getting pretty dark.

I actually missed out...I got off work and fell asleep for about an hour or so, and didn't realize the top storm was building in Canada...otherwise I could of called a friend of mine and gone out to intercept it as it crossed the border. When it was at it's strongest (about 10 to 15 minutes before that picture was taken), it had a nice hook echo and some rotation on radar...and I would be willing to put money down that there was a rotating wall cloud or funnel cloud present. We went out and tried to chase it down after it went by, but it was moving too fast (25 or 30 knots) and continued to weaken, so we called it off and headed back (second picture is a gust front in association with a line of storms that formed behind the top one that we ran into on the way back). I was kicking myself for not checking the radar, even though there was only like a 40% chance of showers yesterday.

[Nicko999]

Yeah, we had an F1 tornado south of Montreal at the border with New York.

3rd tornado in Quebec this season (second F1)...

F1 tornado touchdown in Huntingdon, Quebec

Environment Canada has confirmed that an F1 strength tornado touched down in Huntingdon, Quebec, on Friday.

Severe damage was reported to a garage, whose roof was completely destroyed. Several trees were broken or uprooted.

The agency estimates the twister, the third confirmed in Quebec this season, boasted wind speeds of between 150 and 180 km/h, and happened around 5:25 p.m. in a rural part of the community.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... topstories

[Cyclenall]

This is something you don't see every season. In fact, I've never seen this:

I have. More than once.

I have only been watching the SPC since April of last year. I heard the Day 7 was only issued once or twice before from someone else.

[brunota2003]

Yeah, we had an F1 tornado south of Montreal at the border with New York.

3rd tornado in Quebec this season (second F1)...

F1 tornado touchdown in Huntingdon, Quebec

Environment Canada has confirmed that an F1 strength tornado touched down in Huntingdon, Quebec, on Friday.

Severe damage was reported to a garage, whose roof was completely destroyed. Several trees were broken or uprooted.

The agency estimates the twister, the third confirmed in Quebec this season, boasted wind speeds of between 150 and 180 km/h, and happened around 5:25 p.m. in a rural part of the community.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... topstories

Pretty sure it was the same cell...it blew up quick and looked nice...even when it passed by here (after it started weakening), it still had nice structure...with an obvious mesocyclone and striations in the midlevels from the rotation.

[RL3AO]

Got over 7 inches of rain yesterday where I am with totals over 10" just west of me. Rain just wouldn't stop.

[cycloneye]

Big hail spashes at White Rock lake in Dallas on June 13.



Video of the big hail event in Dallas on June 13.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... jSD4sS87FM

[blake foust]

With the El Nino coming on i think we will end up below normal for tornado activity across the U.S. It started out strong but has died down tremendously since april. The same thing for the tropical activity. The season started early but will be lucky to see a tropcial disturbance for most of the month of july and possibly August.



Blake
@stratustatus