2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[Chacor]

ABNT20 KNHC 010504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE LEHZ- LEE
BERYL BER- RIL MICHAEL MY- KUHL
CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY DEEN-
DEBBY DEH- BEE OSCAR AHS- KUR
ERNESTO ER NES- TOH PATTY PAT- EE
FLORENCE FLOOR- ENCE RAFAEL RAH FAH ELL-
GORDON GOR- DUHN SANDY SAN- DEE
HELENE HEH LEEN- TONY TOH- NEE
ISAAC EYE- ZIK VALERIE VAH- LUR EE
JOYCE JOYSS WILLIAM WILL- YUM
KIRK KURK

THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH
TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1
AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS
HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED
IS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KatDaddy]

Welcome to the official start of the 2012 Hurricane Season! Are you prepared? It only takes one.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It certainly doesn't feel like the first day of Hurricane Season, no doubt because we've already had two tropical storms develop in the North Atlantic Basin already.

[wx247]

Hello all. I know that the season has already been underway for a while now, but I wanted to drop by and say hi. Make sure that if you live in an area that can see impacts from tropical systems that you use the fair weather time to prepare in case a storm ever come knocking at your door. Welcome to any newbies this season. This place has great analysis.

[thetruesms]

Whoops, forgot to get my numbers in for the poll. Oh well

[bamajammer4eva]

Look who's on the list this year

[mf_dolphin]

Whoops, forgot to get my numbers in for the poll. Oh well

If you get your numbers in today I think we can make one exception

[thetruesms]

Whoops, forgot to get my numbers in for the poll. Oh well

If you get your numbers in today I think we can make one exception

Hmm, I wonder if you've heard that from a reliable source

I'm almost embarrassed to throw it out there, it's practically a non-forecast since it's so close to 1981-2010 climo - 13/6/3. And if those numbers happen to find their way somewhere, well that might be cool.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yay...Hurricane Season 2012.

TWC (April 24, 2012) -- 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.

TSR (May 23, 2012) -- 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.

NOAA (May 24, 2012) -- 9 to 15 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, 1 to 3 majors.

UKMO (May 24, 2012) -- 10 named storms (70% chance of 9 to 13 named storms), ACE index of 90 (70% chance of 28 to 152).

FSU COAPS (May 30, 2012) -- 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, ACE index of 122.

CSU (June 1, 2012) -- 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.

[mf_dolphin]

Hmm, I wonder if you've heard that from a reliable source

I'm almost embarrassed to throw it out there, it's practically a non-forecast since it's so close to 1981-2010 climo - 13/6/3. And if those numbers happen to find their way somewhere, well that might be cool.

Semi-reliable source at least You're number 124 with a bullet

[cycloneye]

Hmm, I wonder if you've heard that from a reliable source

I'm almost embarrassed to throw it out there, it's practically a non-forecast since it's so close to 1981-2010 climo - 13/6/3. And if those numbers happen to find their way somewhere, well that might be cool.

Semi-reliable source at least You're number 124 with a bullet

The boss gave you a pardon.

[brunota2003]

Really? 70% chance that the ACE will be between 28 and 152? I wanna throw a prediction out there too...I predict that there is between a 5 and 100% chance that there will be a Full Moon in September!

[Cyclenall]

Hmm, I wonder if you've heard that from a reliable source

I'm almost embarrassed to throw it out there, it's practically a non-forecast since it's so close to 1981-2010 climo - 13/6/3. And if those numbers happen to find their way somewhere, well that might be cool.

Semi-reliable source at least You're number 124 with a bullet

The boss gave you a pardon.

Watch, this is going to set a prescient (sp?). Now everyone who missed the poll will want a "pardon" .

[cycloneye]

TSR released today their June forecast and the numbers are 14/6/3.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... un2012.pdf

[bg1]

UKMO (May 24, 2012) -- 10 named storms (70% chance of 9 to 13 named storms), ACE index of 90 (70% chance of 28 to 152).

So, they're forecasting a chance that the ACE/storm may be about 3? I'm not sure the quality of storms will be that poor even with a weak El Nino. 2009 had 9 storms and almost twice the lowest value of ACE they forecast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm giving the Atlantic a 70% chance of birthing a tropical system in the NW Caribbean between June 15 and June 20. It would be named "Chris" if nothing else develops before then (unlikely).

[cycloneye]

Here is the update of the pressures by ECMWF of June for ASO and it has less higher pressures than past months updates.

April Update for August/September/October



May Update for August/September/October



June Update for August/September/October

[cycloneye]

So far the North Atlantic Hurricane Season is way above the average in terms of the numbers so far. By mid to late August is the timeframe when the 4th named storm forms in a normal season. I guess what occurs during the rest of the season depends if El nino comes and how strong it may be.

[cycloneye]

TSR made the July update and has 14/6/3.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ul2012.pdf

[cycloneye]

The July update of the MSLP is interesting as for ASO the pressures are normal in the MDR instead of higher pressures that was forecast in past months.Higher pressures are north of 20N and in parts of GOM.

May forecast for ASO



June forecast for ASO



July forecast for ASO