Mid Atlantic Weather 2012

[Stephanie]

Won't be seeing any "Super Moon" tonight. It's been cloudy AGAIN all day! The whole week, with the exception of yesterday, the forecast was that the morning rain/fog would burn off and it would be warm around 70 or so from early in the week on. It's been chilly and damp, period.

I know we need the rain and the pollen has been horrible, but either rain or let the sun shine!

[angelwing]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-022-027-PAZ060-067-
068-070-071-151130-
ATLANTIC NJ-BERKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
KENT MD-MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE`S MD-SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
TALBOT MD-
640 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE...

AT 635 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 19 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NEWARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MOUNT VERNON...HOMEVILLE AROUND 645
AM...ATGLEN...COCHRANVILLE AROUND 700 AM...PARKESBURG...COATESVILLE
AROUND 715 AM...HONEY BROOK AND GLENMOORE AROUND 730 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN WATER PONDING ON ROADS...AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD SLOW THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3881 7632 3893 7623 3894 7624 3884 7638
3904 7632 3900 7618 3914 7629 3932 7619
3943 7600 3972 7623 3979 7605 4014 7589
4036 7622 4055 7614 3995 7459 3918 7494
3918 7515 3948 7558 3878 7514 3844 7527

$$

HAYES

[angelwing]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 011640
DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-020200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA...ERN
WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INCLUDING THE D.C...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA...ERN WV
PANHANDLE...NRN VA...AND PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INCLUDING THE D.C.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WASHINGTON DC
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN
FL.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FOCUSED AND STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL INDUCE A
LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG SHEAR MAY
INDUCE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A FEW
TORNADOES WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA ALONG
A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..DARROW.. 06/01/2012

$$

[angelwing]

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
< Previous MD


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NC...VA...WV...MD...DC...PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011703Z - 011830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A
VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NC NWD ACROSS
VA...SRN PA...WV PNHDL...AND MD/DC AREA. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRST POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF HAIL/WIND OVER PARTS OF NERN NC AND SERN VA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT SHEAR AND FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED
FOR A TIME. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS A FORCED SQUALL
LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCED ASCENT WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS
LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG A
COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM ERN OH SWD ACROSS WV...EXTREME SWRN VA
AND ERN TN. EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MORE
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF BOWING/LEWPING SEGMENTS
CAN BE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY ALSO TAKE FORM WITH TIME
COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. IN ADDITION TO WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...AN ENHANCED
BUT FOCUSED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM
FRONT. ONE TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM SRN PA ACROSS
WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ONGOING STORMS OVER NRN
NC NWD ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER AREA. STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE
DEVELOPING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND PERHAPS THE LARGER SCALE
ASCENT DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GREATER
IN THIS CORRIDOR...DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING ARE LIKELY MORE MARGINAL
TO SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS
WIND/TORNADOES. NONETHELESS...SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH
AND THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 06/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...
RLX...

LAT...LON 38408025 40257988 40477934 40297812 39657645 39017601
37387611 36877609 35757572 35507692 35827806 36427895
36447972 36738043 37068060 37358072 38408025

[WeatherGuesser]

[angelwing]

[CrazyC83]

Rare to see such a high threat there. The only issue is the intensity of the tornadoes - it is marginal for strong tornadoes (but certainly a couple are possible). The worst part is that it is a major populated area.

Not too many S2K members live in that region that I know of, this seems to be a very Southern-concentrated site.

[angelwing]

DC seems to be the main target, I am hoping I am not on the road when this decides to hit!

[CrazyC83]

Tornado watch for the mountains. Main threat is in DC metro though - I'd expect a stronger-worded watch there soon (PDS may be pushing it, but something like 70/40)

[CrazyC83]

Probs 50/30 in the metro area.

Very similar to what I went through last Friday.

[angelwing]

(No clue if this is part of Isaac, but man it's been nasty since Sunday!)

332 WGUS51 KPHI 041736 FFWPHI NJC025-029-042130- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0052.120904T1736Z-120904T2130Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 136 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MONMOUTH COUNTY... NORTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY... * UNTIL 530 PM EDT... * AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF MONMOUTH AND NORTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTIES. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ASBURY PARK...LONG BRANCH AND TOMS RIVER. THE PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN! PLEASE REPORT FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. DRIVING INTO FLOOD WATERS COULD COST YOU YOUR LIFE...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS OF VEHICLE DAMAGE. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLASH FLOOD FATALITIES ARE AUTO RELATED. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

[Stephanie]

Yes, Virginia, there are tornadoes in NJ too:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/0 ... ew-jersey/

It was confirmed as an EF-0. That town is only 1 mile by 1 mile wide.

[angelwing]

Outside my house Christmas eve:) (And it's still snowing)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Outside my house Christmas eve:) (And it's still snowing)

[StormingB81]

Jealous!