Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

ROCK,but the king still has nada. As long the consensus is absent,we have to wait a while longer.

[ROCK]

ROCK,but the king still has nada. As long the consensus is absent,we have to wait a while longer.

true the EURO not picking up anything in the 240hr range which is long range for that model. Yep we have to wait a week or so.....

[Rgv20]

12GFS Ensembles are also trying to hint at something developing in the long range (324hrs+) in the GOM.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OK, more like this is definitely not backed by sound meteorological data.....

Looking at these models, and reading what I am seeing today, I have my own admission to make. I don't know what this means, if it even does mean anything, but I had a dream the other night that two tropical depressions had just formed, one out in the Atlantic and one in the GOM. The Atlantic one became Chris rather quickly, while the GOM one took a bit more time to become Debby.

That is the extent of what I remember in this dream but I now have this feeling that we indeed may have activity rather soon, especially looking at the models.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OK, more like this is definitely not backed by sound meteorological data.....

Looking at these models, and reading what I am seeing today, I have my own admission to make. I don't know what this means, if it even does mean anything, but I had a dream the other night that two tropical depressions had just formed, one out in the Atlantic and one in the GOM. The Atlantic one became Chris rather quickly, while the GOM one took a bit more time to become Debby.

That is the extent of what I remember in this dream but I now have this feeling that we indeed may have activity rather soon, especially looking at the models.

-Andrew92

Hi Andrew. I have an off Topic question. Are you going to do the weekly analysis as you did last year?

[Andrew92]

I've been in a back-and-forth tennis match this past month after how rough last year was, but I think I am going to do it again this year! I will post the first one tonight. The dream I recently had might even be included in it.

Of course like I said, not sure that this dream means anything, but I seem to recall having a similar one about (at the time) a future hurricane in the GOM named Rita several months before it happened. It was eerie to me watching that storm unfold. I guess we will see though!

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OK, more like this is definitely not backed by sound meteorological data.....

Looking at these models, and reading what I am seeing today, I have my own admission to make. I don't know what this means, if it even does mean anything, but I had a dream the other night that two tropical depressions had just formed, one out in the Atlantic and one in the GOM. The Atlantic one became Chris rather quickly, while the GOM one took a bit more time to become Debby.

That is the extent of what I remember in this dream but I now have this feeling that we indeed may have activity rather soon, especially looking at the models.

-Andrew92

Did you happen to also dream about very hot and prolonged heat waves hitting the Great Lakes region and beyond by any chance? Seriously, after this terrible weekend weather around here (very rainy and cold...I hate cold during my favorite month!), I'm ready for hellfire heat and I will not apologize either . During the approaching heat spell before Memorial Day weekend, I had various dreams of looking at heat/death ridges on model maps like the Canadian and Euro...that's my eagerness in a nutshell.

[Andrew92]

Nope, sorry, no such further dreams about heat waves. Only had that one dream about the two tropical cyclones. What is eerie to me though is that their names happened to be Chris and Debby, the next two names on this year's list! But does it really mean anything? I'll certainly keep it in the back of my mind, but I still listen to the mets and models over some crazy dream I had in my sleep.

-Andrew92

[Rgv20]

0zGFS continues to insist on possible Tropical development in the GOM in the longer range....We shall see if it it stays consistent on the time frame (June 16-18?)

[cycloneye]

It's getting closer and closer to the ECMWF timeframe range.Let's see if Euro bites or not.

[cycloneye]

Guess what folks,12z GFS dropped the long range Western Caribbean/GOM development. Instead it now has a Eastern Pacific one.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z euro not showing much yet.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Aric Dunn]

interesting thought. the EURO I believe yesterday showed what appeared to be a cluster of t'storms move into the northern gulf coast then developed it and moved it across the northern gulf coast east across florida and into the atlantic. well looking over Missouri this afternoon there is a small MCS dropping SSE to south this afternoon. If that were to hold together over night it should be approaching the northern gulf tomorrow afternoon. steering would suggest a motion to the south then the flow splits. could the added energy and vorticity that eventually gets something going over the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS back to a NW carribean development and brings it north into the florida panhandle as a strong system for the gfs. also tries to develop something in the northern gulf prior to that.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS try to have some sort of development on long range,but looses it in GOM. See loop.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

Finnally the ECMWF has something at the 240 hour timeframe on the 12z run,but is in the Eastern Pacific.



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[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

:D

I know that you are an EPAC fan and hungry to track something in that basin. Let's see if both GFS/ECMWF continue to show the EPAC system as the days go by.

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs a little earlier on development in the western carrib. although hard to say exactly since it spins something in the pacific as well.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

third model to suggest this. couple days ago the euro developed a weak system east of the bahamas from the same frontal system affecting florida right now. The front sags south stalls then high builds back in and eventually something starts coming together. yesterday the cmc did that and now today the nogaps is doing it. similar to the process that spawned nate and Ophelia in 2005.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

yesterdays cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


cant find the earlier run of the euro.