ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Australian ENSO Update of 6/5/12

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Tropical Pacific remains neutral; ocean warming slowly

Issued on Tuesday 5 June | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific climate indicators remain at neutral values for this time of the year. This includes the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness, and sea surface temperatures. Ocean temperatures below the surface are currently warmer than average in the central and western Pacific on a monthly scale, with the eastern subsurface Pacific closer to normal, but slowly warming.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm further over the coming months. All seven models surveyed indicate conditions are likely to approach, or possibly exceed, El Niño thresholds during the late winter to early spring period. Large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier and warmer than normal in winter/spring as El Niño events develop. No climate models favour a return to La Niña.

[Ntxw]

MJO has officially (finally) left the dead state into an active burst. I'm going to disregard the GFS forecast as it's been performing poorly in this matter. Look for continued warming of ENSO 3.4 this month possibly at the greatest rate thus far and on a side note the WPAC tropical activity looks to pick up in response as well.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center June Update

In this monthly update,CPC has a 50% chance of having El Niño by late Summer.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 June 2012

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.

ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed in May 2012, following the dissipation of La Niña in April. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently near average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and above-average in the far eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were near zero during most of May, while the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies became more strongly positive in May (Fig. 3), as above-average sub-surface temperatures became established across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The low-level trade winds and convection over the central equatorial Pacific were near average during May, although convection remained enhanced over portions of the western Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.

The extensive volume of above-average sub-surface water temperatures indicates that the tropical Pacific SST anomalies will likely warm further in the coming months. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). Thereafter, most of the dynamical models predict El Niño to develop during JAS, while the statistical models tend to favor the continuation of ENSO-neutral. Thus, there remains uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño will prevail during the second half of the year. The evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that ENSO-neutral and El Niño are roughly equally likely during the late northern summer and fall. The CPC/IRI forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by an approximately 50% likelihood for El Niño during the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[NDG]

They say 50% chance of an El Nino during the last quarter of the year, not second half of the year

[Yellow Evan]

We will see +0.5 SST's by next month IMO. Should take a month for the conditions to affect the ATL.

[cycloneye]

Here is Joe Bastardi with a tweet about El Nino:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

"@BigJoeBastardi: "The el nino will last into winter, lead to a cold winter cause its a cold pdo nino off a double nina, then fade next year. There, watch that."

[cycloneye]

I am going to launch this question here like a mini poll to see what the members think based on what the data shows until now. Will the expected El Nino be the traditional (Covers all Nino regions) or a Modoki one? (Covers only the Central Pacific)

[Steve H.]

Okay statistical gurus, that means that there is an even chance of that happening. Why is this alarming? Duh, it also means there is a 50% chance of it NOT happening

[Ntxw]

I am going to launch this question here like a mini poll to see what the members think based on what the data shows until now. Will the expected El Nino be the traditional (Covers all Nino regions) or a Modoki one? (Covers only the Central Pacific)

Majority of Ninos start eastern based, it isn't until the southern hemisphere summer that the western regions truly get entrenched in warm anomalies. Same is for La Nina. Peak of either is during the northern winter. I believe it will be basin to basin warm come Nov-Jan at it's peak.

[cycloneye]

I am going to launch this question here like a mini poll to see what the members think based on what the data shows until now. Will the expected El Nino be the traditional (Covers all Nino regions) or a Modoki one? (Covers only the Central Pacific)

Majority of Ninos start eastern based, it isn't until the southern hemisphere summer that the western regions truly get entrenched in warm anomalies. Same is for La Nina. Peak of either is during the northern winter. I believe it will be basin to basin warm come Nov-Jan at it's peak.

And in your analysis,it would be a weak el nino or stronger than that?

[thetruesms]

Okay statistical gurus, that means that there is an even chance of that happening. Why is this alarming? Duh, it also means there is a 50% chance of it NOT happening

The forecast is between three scenarios (Nino/Neutral/Nina) which are assumed to occur with roughly the same frequency over the long term. All else being equal, there is a 33% chance of having an El Nino at a given time. Putting it at 50% is a forecast of an El Nino being much more likely to occur than that baseline (1.5x more likely, to be precise).

[Hurricaneman]

This looking at the anomolies looks to be a Traditional El Nino

[Ntxw]

And in your analysis,it would be a weak el nino or stronger than that?

I like 68-69 and 76-77 El Nino years as analogs. They were 0.8-1.1 at their peaks respectively so I will go with that. Borderline weak-moderate between 0.8 and 1.0c

[Yellow Evan]

And in your analysis,it would be a weak el nino or stronger than that?

I like 68-69 and 76-77 El Nino years as analogs. They were 0.8-1.1 at their peaks respectively so I will go with that. Borderline weak-moderate between 0.8 and 1.0c

Not 1977! oh no! we'd have a really dead yer w/ nothing too do.

[bg1]

And in your analysis,it would be a weak el nino or stronger than that?

I like 68-69 and 76-77 El Nino years as analogs. They were 0.8-1.1 at their peaks respectively so I will go with that. Borderline weak-moderate between 0.8 and 1.0c

Not 1977! oh no! we'd have a really dead yer w/ nothing too do.

What's strange is that 1969 was active, with 18 storms and 12 hurricanes. Maybe El Nino went away by then?

[Yellow Evan]

And in your analysis,it would be a weak el nino or stronger than that?

I like 68-69 and 76-77 El Nino years as analogs. They were 0.8-1.1 at their peaks respectively so I will go with that. Borderline weak-moderate between 0.8 and 1.0c

What's strange is that 1969 was active, with 18 storms and 12 hurricanes. Maybe El Nino went away by then?

Probably similar to 2010

[Ntxw]

Brett Anderson of Accuwx stated in his blog that the latest forecast by the Euro package now favors moderate nino come fall and winter. MJO continues it's assault on the western basin. Fully expect major changes in ENSO this month. Models are just beginning to understand the strenght of this latest wave.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI has gone down in the last few days. Will it continue this way and reach the -8 threshold of El Nino? Or will it continues to do the stairstepping thing? Peeps,keep visiting frequently this thread as you will know first here than in other sites in the internet if officially El Nino has arrived or not.

[Ptarmigan]

I like 68-69 and 76-77 El Nino years as analogs. They were 0.8-1.1 at their peaks respectively so I will go with that. Borderline weak-moderate between 0.8 and 1.0c

Not 1977! oh no! we'd have a really dead yer w/ nothing too do.

What's strange is that 1969 was active, with 18 storms and 12 hurricanes. Maybe El Nino went away by then?

All of 1969 was an El Nino even during peak season. It was a moderate to weak El Nino. 1968 started from weak La Nina to moderate El Nino. Yet, it does not label it as La Nina.
1968
-0.6 DJF
-0.8 JFM
-0.7 FMA
-0.5 MAM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

1977 was inactive in all the basins, Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific. It was a weak El Nino that time. Don't know why 1977 was inactive all over.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/11/12 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 is a tad more cooler +0.1C than last week's update when it was at +0.2C. I think the -PDO is having an effect on not allowing for much warming like Nino 1+2 and 3 are going thru.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf