Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

and the UKMET showing at least pressure falls in the carrib.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[Sanibel]

Nothing cooking in the basin.

[Nimbus]

The models are looking beyond 180 hours so I guess the current surface low pressure mid gulf that was left behind from the last front will just lift out? Shear is dropping a little but there doesn't seem to be any organization.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS ensembles from this morning.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... pf252.html

[Riptide]

Wouldn't be surprised if something similar to what is depicted on the GFS ensembles occured based on history and below-normal shear profiles in the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z gfs starts development at 136 to 140 hours. but sign begin as early as 120 hours. that would be next weekend for western carric development

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc is showing something starting in the SW carrib.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12Z gfs starts development at 136 to 140 hours. but sign begin as early as 120 hours. that would be next weekend for western carric development

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Is long range here but after that timeframe that you posted,it tracks off the East Coast of U.S.

[arp2559]

The GFS does not have the resolution to show a storms true intensity so when it drops the pressure that low you can bet its a powerful hurricane. More important to focus on the shear environment though than to try and use the GFS for intensity purposes. The GFS is notorious for showing category 5 hurricanes Dean and Felix as a broad area of low pressure. A lot of times the GFS will just show a 998mb system and people like to say, "oh look the GFS is forecasting a strong tropical storm"....however that is not the case at all!!!! One can not take the GFS intensity at face value. And if it shows 992mb at 264 hours it's showing a monster.

[cycloneye]

The GFS does not have the resolution to show a storms true intensity so when it drops the pressure that low you can bet its a powerful hurricane. More important to focus on the shear environment though than to try and use the GFS for intensity purposes. The GFS is notorious for showing category 5 hurricanes Dean and Felix as a broad area of low pressure. A lot of times the GFS will just show a 998mb system and people like to say, "oh look the GFS is forecasting a strong tropical storm"....however that is not the case at all!!!! One can not take the GFS intensity at face value. And if it shows 992mb at 264 hours it's showing a monster.

That is true. I remember in 2007 when GFS had what eventually turned into Dean, it was a 1007 mb low on the majority of runs.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro on the east pac solution moving into the BOC but also looks like ( so far at 192 hrs) there is something in the NW carrib. ///// or it starts festering in the SW carrib and migrates north ovder land and eventually starts to come together.. hard to follow.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Aric Dunn]

ok the Euro is on board now. the east pac and carrib system are different. its looking more and more likely that something is goingto develop. moderate model consensus now.good for long range. if this run were to pan out we would have two systems in the gulf !

[Aric Dunn]

240 hours out.

[Aric Dunn]

better resolution... 12Z euro.. definitely something comes out of the carribean into the gulf while the east pac system moves into the southern BOC. Also the eat pac system begins to develop in as little as 72 hours. so its track maybe key the eventualy development of something in the carrib and itself being a gulf player.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

check out the 00z CMC ensemble out at through 240 hrs. a few of them have similar solutions to the EURO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCE ... rloop.html

GFS
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSE ... rloop.html

[ROCK]

that is some good model consensus starting to come together. All indications are something coming together late next week. I never look at the GFS nor the GFDL for intensity purposes. Unless they have upgraded this year they have been horrid.

[cycloneye]

HWRF/GFDL/GFS will be upgraded on May

Let's see if after these upgrades by these models,they perform much better,and we will see if GFS turns into the #1 global model and takes that spot from ECMWF. HWRF and GFDL are not global models,but both of them are very important when there is a system in the tropics to see how they are on intensity and tracks.

Details about upgrade of HWRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=HWRF

Details about upgrade of GFDL

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 18gfdl.htm

Details about upgrade of GFS

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... hybrid.htm

ROCK,here are the details of the upgrades as I posted them around 2 months ago.

[ROCK]

ah I see....yeah lets see if they can unseat the mighty EURO this year in verification.....(highly doubt it)...

interesting to see if the GFDL bombs out every storm this year as its done in the past. Also see if it destroys every major city in the GOM as its prone to do every year.

[cycloneye]

By the way,18z GFS is void of development in Western Caribbean/GOM. That is why the 00z and 12z are much more important as those have more data. But in EPAC,it has Carlotta after the 15th.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z does have development?