Global model runs discussion

[crownweather]

Could this system be a Florida threat? How are the intensity models doing on the system that is supposed to develop?
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Way too early to discuss specifics. Positioning of upper level ridges and troughs will be crucial in storm track and intensity. GFS and FIM model points to a FL panhandle landfall while Euro and Canadian model currently point to a SW Louisiana/upper TX coast threat.

[HeeBGBz]

It's been heavy raining here in Biloxi the last two days. Yesterday the skies were dark over the entire gulf view. Not like the usual pop up some over here some over there skies. I don't know if that will contribute to anything building into next week.

[AJC3]

the 18z does have development?

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

Again, the pressure and storm depiction from the GFS can not be viewed as a storms true intensity. It just can not be done. I've never understood why people insist on using GFS model output as storm intensity. If whatever intensity the GFS was showing was the actual intensity of every storm the last 10 years then we've never had anything above a high end category 1 hurricane.

Huh?

All I see here is two long-time, well-respected posters - one of whom is a met who actually forecasts tropical cyclones for a living - discussing what deterministic model output is showing. Nowhere did I see either person state that the forecast output should be used quantitatively.

Taking posters to task, especially one of the more knowledgeable mets around here, and doing so on your 4th post on the forum = not a good precedent to set for yourself.

[Ivanhater]

Model run through. With so much model support, this is very interesting.

06z GFS



00Z Canandian



00z Euro



00z FIM

[Ivanhater]

Also, the 06z GFS Ensemble mean is showing a strong signal for something in the Gulf in this range.

[Aric Dunn]

Also, the 06z GFS Ensemble mean is showing a strong signal for something in the Gulf in this range.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical264.gif[/ig]

All in all. given that we have roughly 7 days till we start seeing the first indications of something, and all reliable models ( although timing is a little different with them) are indicating development. its reasonable to think that they are not hinting in the right direction. from past years we have had on occasion all the models showing something then it not happen this far out ... but its quite rare.

[cycloneye]

Also, the 06z GFS Ensemble mean is showing a strong signal for something in the Gulf in this range.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical264.gif[/ig]

All in all. given that we have roughly 7 days till we start seeing the first indications of something, and all reliable models ( although timing is a little different with them) are indicating development. its reasonable to think that they are not hinting in the right direction. from past years we have had on occasion all the models showing something then it not happen this far out ... but its quite rare.

Yes,to see the models latching on something beyond 7 days is remarkable and it shows that they have been thru upgrades and have made progress on a medium range basis.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS is rolling....out 108hr nothing interesting yet....

[ROCK]

120hr NOGAPS contact....low in far sw carib..moving north....

edit: also shows 2 systems in the EPAC..

[ROCK]

plenty of potential in the GOM for June....only going to get warmer as we move along....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[wxman57]

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

Again, the pressure and storm depiction from the GFS can not be viewed as a storms true intensity. It just can not be done. I've never understood why people insist on using GFS model output as storm intensity. If whatever intensity the GFS was showing was the actual intensity of every storm the last 10 years then we've never had anything above a high end category 1 hurricane.

Huh?

All I see here is two long-time, well-respected posters - one of whom is a met who actually forecasts tropical cyclones for a living - discussing what deterministic model output is showing. Nowhere did I see either person state that the forecast output should be used quantitatively.

Taking posters to task, especially one of the more knowledgeable mets around here, and doing so on your 4th post on the forum = not a good precedent to set for yourself.

Apparently, "arp2259" didn't understand that I was simply reporting the fact that the GFS developed a 1005mb low. There was no implication that the GFS-predicted pressure was correct. Of course the GFS cannot predict TC pressures, it's not designed to do so. However, it is possible to compare one run to another to examine relative differences in the forecast (995mb low vs. 1005mb low, for example). Repeated forecasts of a deeper low could be a stronger indication of possible development than forecasts of a weaker low.

Today's 12Z run is once again not very bullish on development late next weekend. Another weak 1005mb low with hardly a closed isobar. It tracks across Cuba/Florida and up the east coast early next week.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Original GFS timing was around the 15th if I am correct. (The earlier runs, when the system was further out)

[SFLcane]

Could end up just being another rain-maker for florida as suggested by todays 12z GFS. Always interesting to look at 200+hr model progs BUT not very useful if you ask me.

[cycloneye]

After the non bullish 12z GFS run,let's see if the 12z ECMWF keeps it or not.

[ROCK]

the NOGAPS 12Z runs it into the Yuc at 180hr.....

[ROCK]

Could end up just being another rain-maker for florida as suggested by todays 12z GFS. Always interesting to look at 200+hr model progs BUT not very useful if you ask me.

so you discount the model consensus in the medium range? I guess we should all just look at the 84hr NAM and call it a day...

[ROCK]

EURO 12Z is running....out 120hr....not much to see yet...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

144hr....seeing a low coming of deep carib from SA..that might be it...IDK...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif


168hr....got a low in the BOC, and another one in deep carib..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[ROCK]

next few frames should be interesting.....192-240hr...thats when we should start to see something..

[ROCK]

192hr broad area of low pressure around the YUC....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


216hr...consolidating on edge of BOC and SGOM

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[wxman57]

Not much on 12Z Euro, just a weak low in the near the NW Yucatan at 216 and 222 hrs so far.