Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

Not much on 12Z Euro, just a weak low in the near the NW Yucatan at 216 and 222 hrs so far.

hey we have one more frame to go.....anything can happen!!...

[somethingfunny]

Still waiting for the 240hr frame to load; so far it looks like it's in close agreement with the 00z run, but with the ridge a bit weaker and further east. I don't think anybody's saying we expect a strong system by June 19, just that we expect a system. We need to take these predictions one thing at a time when they're still well over a week away.

[wxman57]

Not much on 12Z Euro, just a weak low in the near the NW Yucatan at 216 and 222 hrs so far.

hey we have one more frame to go.....anything can happen!!...

More frames than that, I have a high-res Euro with 6-hr time frames. Low opens up into a weak wave at 228 hrs and remains a wave a 334 hrs.

[somethingfunny]

More frames than that, I have a high-res Euro with 6-hr time frames. Low opens up into a weak wave at 228 hrs and remains a wave a 334 hrs.

Can you stick that bit about your high-res Euro access right into your signature so we don't make ourselves look like fools anymore?

[Aric Dunn]

Still very similar to the last couple runs.

[ROCK]

Not much on 12Z Euro, just a weak low in the near the NW Yucatan at 216 and 222 hrs so far.

hey we have one more frame to go.....anything can happen!!...

More frames than that, I have a high-res Euro with 6-hr time frames. Low opens up into a weak wave at 228 hrs and remains a wave a 334 hrs.

no fair....


240hr if anybody cares....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

[ROCK]

so what do we take out of this run? still shows something around the Yucatan at 200hr which would be next weekend. Not to concerned about intensity nor should anyone be. We can figure that out later....all of the globals are sniffing some variation of a tropical system. Thats what we take away from this run...plus its only one run...

[floridasun78]

long range are wrong alot time we need wait untill we get 7 days model run

[ROCK]

long range are wrong alot time we need wait untill we get 7 days model run

true as we get closer to the event models latch on better. No denying that but with all globals sniffing at something in the medium range that cant be over looked either...

[vbhoutex]

long range are wrong alot time we need wait untill we get 7 days model run

true as we get closer to the event models latch on better. No denying that but with all globals sniffing at something in the medium range that cant be over looked either...

Not about to predict anything at this point, but it definitely is starting to get my attention.

[ROCK]

since 1527, there have been 10 hurricanes to hit Texas in the month of June. All of these are mostly in the last half of June....Audrey looks to be the most powerful though I am not sure about 145mph winds. Last one was Bonnie in 1986....

[somethingfunny]

since 1527, there have been 10 hurricanes to hit Texas in the month of June. All of these are mostly in the last half of June....Audrey looks to be the most powerful though I am not sure about 145mph winds. Last one was Bonnie in 1986....

Alex came awfully close two years ago, too.

[ROCK]

since 1527, there have been 10 hurricanes to hit Texas in the month of June. All of these are mostly in the last half of June....Audrey looks to be the most powerful though I am not sure about 145mph winds. Last one was Bonnie in 1986....

Alex came awfully close two years ago, too.

yeah my research only went up to 2008....

[jinftl]

Since 1950, 3 hurricanes have hit Texas in June...Alice (1954), Audrey (1957), and Bonnie (1986). Heck, getting a named tropical storm anywhere in the Gulf or Atlantic is a 50/50 shot for the entire month of June according to climatology...but this season (actually, pre-season in May) has been so odd so far, who knows what Mother Nature has in store...after crazy late spring/early summer warmth in March east of the Rockies, the climate this year seems to be running 2 months or so ahead of schedule...

[floridasun78]

we need see what sat pic show by wed in area model show system too and see what Model show by wed too

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't expect the models at this point to be real consistent, but the pattern and the overall solution is pretty much indicating an area of low pressure coming up into the Gulf and once well into June this usually spells trouble.

[jinftl]

If we get a slow moving, weaker-end system (t.d. or tropical storm) like we can see in the Gulf in June next weekend or thereafter, please let it stay well away from Pensacola. Such systems have a history of producing heavy rains as their biggest calling-card. Escambia County already dealing with a declared State of Emergency this afternoon and their EOC is at level 1 full activation and shelters have been opened...8 to 15 inches of rain has fallen since yesterday and another 4 to 8 inches are forecast to fall in the next day or so. Water-logged is an understatement. No rain from a system in the Gulf is welcome!

[Cyclenall]

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

Again, the pressure and storm depiction from the GFS can not be viewed as a storms true intensity. It just can not be done. I've never understood why people insist on using GFS model output as storm intensity. If whatever intensity the GFS was showing was the actual intensity of every storm the last 10 years then we've never had anything above a high end category 1 hurricane.

Huh?

All I see here is two long-time, well-respected posters - one of whom is a met who actually forecasts tropical cyclones for a living - discussing what deterministic model output is showing. Nowhere did I see either person state that the forecast output should be used quantitatively.

Taking posters to task, especially one of the more knowledgeable mets around here, and doing so on your 4th post on the forum = not a good precedent to set for yourself.

In defense of arp2559, his/her first posts were actually excellent and probably one of the best first posters I've seen on S2K. I agree the latter two posts weren't necessary because I know those well-respected members know the point he/she was trying to make. arp2559 set a good precedent IMO, just a misunderstanding probably.

To the model runs, the consensus is very good and Chris should be here soon enough. That one GFS ensembles image yesterday really was interesting. If we see any more of those, that's a red flag.

If we get a slow moving, weaker-end system (t.d. or tropical storm) like we can see in the Gulf in June next weekend or thereafter, please let it stay well away from Pensacola. Such systems have a history of producing heavy rains as their biggest calling-card. Escambia County already dealing with a declared State of Emergency this afternoon and their EOC is at level 1 full activation and shelters have been opened...8 to 15 inches of rain has fallen since yesterday and another 4 to 8 inches are forecast to fall in the next day or so. Water-logged is an understatement. No rain from a system in the Gulf is welcome!

Not long ago the opposite was being said. This area was under significant drought 1 year ago correct? Gives the phrase "Droughts end with Floods" merit.

[SunnyThoughts]

If we get a slow moving, weaker-end system (t.d. or tropical storm) like we can see in the Gulf in June next weekend or thereafter, please let it stay well away from Pensacola. Such systems have a history of producing heavy rains as their biggest calling-card. Escambia County already dealing with a declared State of Emergency this afternoon and their EOC is at level 1 full activation and shelters have been opened...8 to 15 inches of rain has fallen since yesterday and another 4 to 8 inches are forecast to fall in the next day or so. Water-logged is an understatement. No rain from a system in the Gulf is welcome!

No doubt about that. Took me 2 hours to get from warrington to the Pace area. So many roads were flooded this afternoon, cars stranded everywhere. Water up in many houses. What a mess. We needed the rain, just not all at once.!

As for the models sniffing out a little action, will make sure to keep an eye on things as we move towards next weekend and the rest of June.

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS shows a TS (not very strong) moving up towards the Yucatan channel

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical



there is no denying there will be something of tropical nature around that area late next week....too much model consensus...