Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

if you look at the higher resolution of the e u r o u c a n clearly see weak x system in the carrib.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[Aric Dunn]

Also i really dont see what you all are saying that the models are not still pointing at something? the last few runs of the GFS have essential said the same thing. east pac system develops off costa rica heads NNW across mexico left over energy from outflow interacts with a trough/ weak wave in the Carribean causing a lot of convection then upper winds relax and depending on the timing and placement of all this will determine if something develops. all the models are showing very similar things. the euro seems to think most of the energy will remain over to near land a thus we dont have well defined system like we did a couple days ago but the idea is still the same.

[Frank2]

GFS has dropped the NW Caribbean low seen yesterday...

[wxman57]

None of the models is verifying very well beyond 3-4 days. Will have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean and Gulf by next weekend to see if any thunderstorm areas develop. For now, there's no disturbance and only model hints at possible development between the 15th and 22nd.

[Ivanhater]

Sometimes we get lost in the models and forget to look at the whole picture. Regardless of the models going back and forth, there are signs pointing to possible development in the Caribbean and Gulf...

From the HPC this morning

ACROSS THE TROPICS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BECOME LOW ENOUGH BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO INDUCE A BROAD SURFACE LOW/AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD. RIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGS THE PROMISE OF
RENEWED TROPICAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MEXICO ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THREE PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THE
FIRST OF THESE AREAS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

[Aric Dunn]

Sometimes we get lost in the models and forget to look at the whole picture. Regardless of the models going back and forth, there are signs pointing to possible development in the Caribbean and Gulf...

From the HPC this morning

ACROSS THE TROPICS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BECOME LOW ENOUGH BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO INDUCE A BROAD SURFACE LOW/AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD. RIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGS THE PROMISE OF
RENEWED TROPICAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MEXICO ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THREE PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THE
FIRST OF THESE AREAS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

yeah the models themselves have been hinting at the upper pattern becoming more condusive in the coming couple weeks.



Also I know its the NAM and its quite terrible but as we have seen over the years it does well at giving us some idea on timing and synoptics. The 12z run is very similar to the rest of the models the last couple days. show the east pac system that is starting to come together south of panama now moving north just as the models have been hinting. point being the steering it seems is for this system in the east pac to potentially move into the BOC ( or at least whats left of it) but the energy that would get cut off in the western carrib from the mountains of central America will likely be enhanced by the outflow of this system aiding convection. it remains to be seen. but now that there is something to at least verify in the east pac. it is reasonable to assume the models have not been too far off. but of course until that system develops we wont know much more.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ivanhater]

I will say after the historic flood in Pensacola this weekend with over 23 inches falling in the city, we do not need any rain from a tropical system so hopefully even if it just an area of disturbed weather it does not head north toward the Gulf coast.

[Aric Dunn]

So far the 12z GFS is similar to the 00z and 6z. just the east pac system is farther north and little more defined.

[Aric Dunn]

at 102 hours has a much more pronounced carribean presence. same at 111 hours. and the pacific system has moved into the BOC. so the GFS is back to earlier solutions.

[Aric Dunn]

5 days from now ( saturday)

[Aric Dunn]

135hrs

has system in BOC and new system in the NW carribean.



and intensifying in carrib at 144 hrs. or sunday.

[Ivanhater]

I believe the GFS is showing a monsoon type set up where something will slowly spin up in the Western Caribbean with the lowering pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

I believe the GFS is showing a monsoon type set up where something will slowly spin up in the Western Caribbean with the lowering pressure.

yeah the monsoon trough has been forecast to lift north and part of it be in the SW/W carribean and the rest in the Epac

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps is doing a very similar thing to the GFS as well. just favoring the SW carrib vs the east pac.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


GFS 162 hours. moving very slow NW carrib a little stronger. ( GFS intensity not to accurate of course )

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps has a TS in the NW carrib at 108 hours. while the GFS at that time has barely a closed wind field noted.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical



Although both models start the first 48 hours with a low in the SW carrib the nogaps holds that system together while the GFS develops the east pac systems and kills the SW carrib. looking at satellite Im favoring the GFS since initialized it has most of the energy in the east pac which is where things are coming together.

[floridasun78]

so we going to system by sat? if models are right let see weather office in fl and gulf states pick it up soon

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps at 120 has a hurricane passing through the Yucatan channel. while the GFS at that time has a weak TS.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]I will say after the historic flood in Pensacola this weekend with over 23 inches falling in the city, we do not need any rain from a tropical system so hopefully even if it just an area of disturbed weather it does not head north toward the Gulf coast.[/quote]



No doubt Pensacola doesn't need any more rain but here in Panama City we received less than two inches so we could use more rain....ponds and lakes are still very, very low. Don't want a TC per se but a good two or three day steady rain (not tropical downpours) would be welcome.

[Aric Dunn]

well GFS is just keeping the system in the NW carrib out to 204 hours. not likely it will sit there for 3 days. but the GFSis back to a substantial system in the NW carrib. starting this weekend and into next week.

[floridasun78]

we seen strong hurr in nw carribbean before in june before Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar) http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php