2012 WPAC season

[Infdidoll]

I love that you guys are already on this! It's that time of year where I'm checking ECM constantly. I don't think anyone would be complaining if a typhoon came through here to give the island a nice wash down. Something to watch, anyway.

We've only got another month left on the rock here, as well, but I don't think my love for severe weather is going anywhere.

[dexterlabio]

if im seeing the euro models right we might expect a tropical cyclone formation in June 1st, at least. tho right now we have an invest near the area said by models to spawn a TC. interesting to watch the tropics!







in terms of how strong it could be i cant tell unless we have an actual storm out of this but knowing the high OHC in the philippine sea, we can't just expect...

[StormingB81]

As long as it stays nice through Saturday....yes this is my last couple of days here in Okinawa....Time to turn my attention to the Atlantic however I will always keep an eye to see what the WPAC spins up...

[dexterlabio]

I've seen the latest forecasts for MJO and the dynamical model forecasts show MJO strengthening this month and majority of the ensemble shows MJO returning in the Western Pacific and Maritime Continent.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

This, along with the onset of the moist southwesterly windflow, higher SST, and continuing favorable conditions, gives me the idea that Mawar is not the only tropical cyclone we'll be having in the coming weeks...I think we're gonna see more this June.


As of now, Mawar is steadily developing in the Philippine Sea. I believe we'll have our first major system out of this.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[euro6208]

I've seen the latest forecasts for MJO and the dynamical model forecasts show MJO strengthening this month and majority of the ensemble shows MJO returning in the Western Pacific and Maritime Continent.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

This, along with the onset of the moist southwesterly windflow, higher SST, and continuing favorable conditions, gives me the idea that Mawar is not the only tropical cyclone we'll be having in the coming weeks...I think we're gonna see more this June.


As of now, Mawar is steadily developing in the Philippine Sea. I believe we'll have our first major system out of this.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

looks like euro is the one with the strongest signal. if that does happen, then we might see el nino soon.

[euro6208]

Updated on Page 1...

scary to see the 26.5 sst so far north and so far east to the dateline..with 30/31 degrees sst in the philippine sea and parts of SCS...the tropical cyclone heat potential and depth 26.c isotherm are very high! ...it looks like the philippines is the place to go for strong typhoons this year...

[dexterlabio]

Updated on Page 1...

scary to see the 26.5 sst so far north and so far east to the dateline..with 30/31 degrees sst in the philippine sea and parts of SCS...the tropical cyclone heat potential and depth 26.c isotherm are very high! ...it looks like the philippines is the place to go for strong typhoons this year...

the high SST's at this time of the year compared to last year are considerably higher. i agree with you on this...let's see how things go within the coming weeks or months..

i can't help but to consider 2009 or maybe 2006 as similar seasons with this year...with possible occurrence of El Nino during the mid-season or late season.

[euro6208]

well that was fun tracking mawar. with the mjo returning to the west pacific although weak, we should expect more systems...

mawar tied with bud (east pacific) for strongest storm so far this year...100 knots...

nice picture of mawar...

[euro6208]

very worrisome for the philippines as week 1 and 2 shows potential for tropical cyclone development.

[euro6208]

euro now showing future storm...guchol... developing west of guam and headed towards the philippines...looks like a strong typhoon in the making...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Euro, that latest ECM run has got my attention for sure, developing storm in the world's hottest TC real estate!

I have one major issue with the next storm though.... GUCHOL, urghhh sounds horrible! (No cultural offense meant to the contributing country )

[euro6208]

Euro, that latest ECM run has got my attention for sure, developing storm in the world's hottest TC real estate!

I have one major issue with the next storm though.... GUCHOL, urghhh sounds horrible! (No cultural offense meant to the contributing country )

lol...Micronesia contributed the name. GUCHOL is a Yapese word for the spice Tumeric

[dexterlabio]

I'm feeling we're gonna see our next TC this week, or if not soon maybe the week after this. The 90W invest however doesn't seem to grow as fast as it was the past day. If euro is right (although it was not shown to be any significant tropical cyclone), we may see development within the coming week.



With the ENSO updates, I learned that El Nino is in the offing right now and the 30day SOI seems to be going down to El Nino threshold. If the pattern I've seen so far in El Nino years, we might just see a 2006/2009-like season this year.

[euro6208]

interesting that euro doesn't develop 90W heck it doesn't develop anything at all in the next 7 days! a weak-moderate mjo is over us and i expect that to change during or most likely after it leaves our area...more monsters coming

[euro6208]

well i was wrong that 90W wouldn't develop because it did but it is weak! interesting that it is having a hard time trying to develop not just here in the wpac but also in the epac.

[euro6208]

the philippine sea remains ripe for development

[dexterlabio]

This is a great news for the WPAC season this year if it verifies, yes it's not confirmed but at least there is some kind of hope.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112917&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[dexterlabio]

there seems to be an area of low pressure north of the South China Sea, and another area of interest in the WPAC. I think we'll be having another one to watch soon after Guchol.

[euro6208]

This is a great news for the WPAC season this year if it verifies, yes it's not confirmed but at least there is some kind of hope.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112917&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

that would be awesome! recon in the king of all basin! let's hope they do this every year at least guam should have recon, we are a U.S territory...

[cycloneye]

For those who follow the WPAC tropical season, Storm2k has now a new forum for active storms/invests forum for that part of the world so I am sure that you will like it a bunch.

viewforum.php?f=76