Here is todays discussion by Rob of Crown Weather about the possible developments in the next few days and the different model scenarios.
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http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557Mischief Possible Off Of US Southeast Coast By Late This Week; I Continue To Believe That Tropical Development Is Very Possible In The Northwest Caribbean Or Southern Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next 7 to 9 Days
Tuesday, June 12, 2012 6:07 am
by Rob Lightbown
The overall weather pattern for the rest of this week into this weekend consists of a frontal system passage across the Florida Peninsula on Thursday into Friday, across the Florida Straits on Saturday and into the northwestern Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. At the same time, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop about halfway between the US Southeast coast and Bermuda from Friday into this weekend. This particular low pressure system is then forecast to shoot off to the northeast into the open Atlantic by early next week. There is some chance for this low pressure system to acquire sub-tropical characteristics and it will be something that will be monitored in the coming days.
Now, the entire pattern, including the fact that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into Octants 8 and 1 starting around June 18th indicates that the atmosphere may be setting up in a way that leads to tropical development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico within the next week. The Tropical Precipitable Water loop from CIMSS clearly shows a surge of energy tracking across the central Caribbean. This surge of energy is expected to reach the western Caribbean by early Wednesday morning. I think that the environment is more favorable in the western Caribbean and an increase in thunderstorm activity is expected across the western Caribbean by Wednesday.
The overall wind shear forecast is for a more favorable environment in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend into next week. All of these factors, the favorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, increasing energy and moisture and lowering wind shear values leads me to believe that tropical cyclone development is quite possible by this weekend or early next week.
The NOGAPS model is the most aggressive by far as it forecasts the development of a tropical storm by Thursday of this week in the western Caribbean. It then forecasts this tropical storm to quickly become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday and aim its sights towards western Florida and the Florida Panhandle early next week. I want to be blunt and say that I DO NOT believe this particular model solution and have thrown it out of my forecast reasoning process.
The Canadian model forecasts the development of a tropical storm in the western Caribbean by about next Tuesday and forecasts this tropical storm to be located in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now.
The GFS model guidance hints at tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean by late this weekend and eventually splits into two low pressure systems. One near the northwestern Bahamas and other in the western Caribbean by about next Tuesday.
Finally, the European model guidance forecasts the development of a low pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean early next week and forecasts this system to get into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by about next Wednesday and the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.
I may be stubborn in saying that I strongly believe that tropical development will occur in the western Caribbean sometime between Sunday and Tuesday (June 17th and June 19th). There is just too much evidence with current data to not ignore this possibility and call it the way I see it. I continue to monitor this potential closely and will keep you all updated on the latest.
