2012 EPAC season

[Cyclenall]

Link to model runs site thingy?

Also this: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. Its just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Its NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It appears the chances of an Epac tropical cyclone forming within the next 10 days is skyrocketing. Over the last few days every single model is hinting at TC formation occurring in different areas of the basin and even some beyond 130ºW (western Epac). The main area that the Euro and some other models are zoning in on is the disturbance that can't quite be seen yet on imagery becoming something south of Mexico near 100ºW to 18ºN and heading up towards Baja. Because the model support is so strong and the Euro hinted at a significant hurricane, I say a 95% chance at seeing Carlotta within the next 10 days. The way the models are behaving, its identical to the sniffing out of Bud. Here's why:

- The Euro at the same timeframe (240 hours out) shows a strong hurricane in one of its runs and then cools off
- The Euro ensembles continues to show a closed isobar and low (like Bud)
- NOGAPS is more aggressive than usual with development

The current timeframe ranges from 72 hours to 168 hours for the first closed isobar. One of the GFS runs showed 3 tropical cyclones at once in the Epac (TD's probably). Right now there is a large area of consolation that looks great and I wouldn't be surprised to see it become an Invest:



EDIT: As I was writing this, the NHC in the TWO went code yellow:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090516
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

SST's are rising again and the TCHP has some decent values near the Mexican coast:

[Kingarabian]

Looking really good^

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

FYI= Invest 93E is now in the Eastern Pacific.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112874&hilit=&p=2228181#p2228181

[Yellow Evan]

Link to model runs site thingy?

Also this: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. Its just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Its NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It appears the chances of an Epac tropical cyclone forming within the next 10 days is skyrocketing. Over the last few days every single model is hinting at TC formation occurring in different areas of the basin and even some beyond 130ºW (western Epac). The main area that the Euro and some other models are zoning in on is the disturbance that can't quite be seen yet on imagery becoming something south of Mexico near 100ºW to 18ºN and heading up towards Baja. Because the model support is so strong and the Euro hinted at a significant hurricane, I say a 95% chance at seeing Carlotta within the next 10 days. The way the models are behaving, its identical to the sniffing out of Bud. Here's why:

- The Euro at the same timeframe (240 hours out) shows a strong hurricane in one of its runs and then cools off
- The Euro ensembles continues to show a closed isobar and low (like Bud)
- NOGAPS is more aggressive than usual with development

The current timeframe ranges from 72 hours to 168 hours for the first closed isobar. One of the GFS runs showed 3 tropical cyclones at once in the Epac (TD's probably). Right now there is a large area of consolation that looks great and I wouldn't be surprised to see it become an Invest:



EDIT: As I was writing this, the NHC in the TWO went code yellow:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090516
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

SST's are rising again and the TCHP has some decent values near the Mexican coast:

Hmm, getting closer to El Nino with these warm waters.

[somethingfunny]

93E has been designated, here's the thread in Active Storms: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112874

[Cyclenall]

Hmm, getting closer to El Nino with these warm waters.

Nope, check 2009's TCHP for the same time: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2009160ep.jpg - It has way more area of increased heat potential but most of it was in an area where most TC's don't reach...Hurricane Carlos was the exception that year. This year there are some higher values near Mexico.

You didn't have to quote such a large post.

[cycloneye]

This is from the 10:05 UTC discussion regarding future developments:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 11 2012


GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEN LESS RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY SINCE 12Z
AND THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AREA
CENTERED NEAR 9N90W THROUGH WED MORNING THEN MORE RAPID INTENSITY
RATE WED NIGHT AND THU...TRACKING THE LOW NW INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR TEHUANTEPEC AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW
NEAR 11N111W AND EVENTUALLY MERGES IT WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. BY COMPARISON...THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN AN
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW WINDS S OF THE
TROUGH BUT NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT LOW THAT EMERGES
OUT OF THE TROUGH. OBVIOUSLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
BE A POOR APPROACH BECAUSE BOTH CANNOT BE CORRECT...SO WILL NEED
TO SELECT THE BEST MODEL FOR LONG-TERM GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A TONED-DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS WHICH SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKER LOW AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO MINIMAL TS.

[Aric Dunn]

For what its worth. The next area to watch is starting to come together just south of panama very low latitude. the is the area the models are showing something developing as it moves NW. the monsoon trough is tilted and should shift north over the next couple days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 11 2012

THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AREA NEAR
9N90W BY WED MORNING...WITH THE LOW POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER WED
NIGHT AND THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO NEAR TEHUANTEPEC OR CENTRAL AMERICA AS A STRONGER LOW
PRES AREA LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE STRONGEST LOW. IN COMPARISON...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH W-SW WINDS S OF THE TROUGH...BUT NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS
A SIGNIFICANT LOW SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH UNLESS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, could we see 94E soon?

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm, could we see 94E soon?

do believe its coming soon.




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121131
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Extratropical94]

94E has just been declared.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112886&hilit=

[Yellow Evan]

Any models show anything else brewing?

[cycloneye]

95E is also up.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, that shocked me a bit.

[Cyclenall]

95E didn't shock me because at least the GFS started to pick another system up and convection has been active for a while there. I have not checked the models recently to see if its still being picked up. Did 93E energy transfer to 95E?

[cycloneye]

95E didn't shock me because at least the GFS started to pick another system up and convection has been active for a while there. I have not checked the models recently to see if its still being picked up. Did 93E energy transfer to 95E?

The area that was 93E is now between 115W and 120W and 95E is between 105W and 110W so no energy transfer in this case. The 12z ECMWF has a landfalling strong TS to Hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, 93E is long gone.

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, 93E is long gone.

Gone but not forgotten . My worst fears came true with that one. I knew the first time I veered a peak yesterday that it was finished. Anticyclone should have stayed over it for "protection".