Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

the 18Z NOGAPS was amusing....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

0Z GFS rolling out 204hr

TS into FL or NGOM...


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Rgv20]

0zGFS has a Tropical System heading into Florida in about 9 to 10 days from now..

[Rgv20]

Possible tropical development aside it is looking fairly likely that some of our friends in Central America are going to deal with some torrential rainfall in the next 8 to 10 days.

0zGFS forecast Rainfall totals thru Wednesday Evening (June 20)

[somethingfunny]

Well that was a very entertaining 00z run of the GFS.

[Torgo]

Makes a second landfall at 312 hrs in Long Island.

[Brent]

Best run ever

[Rgv20]

0zNogaps has the same idea as the 0zGFS but its a couple of days faster with regards to a TC hitting Florida.

0zNogaps forecast valid Wed morning June 20.

[somethingfunny]

I suggest everybody here watching the potential for Chris ought to be following Invest 94E in the EPAC, as its' evolution will have a huge impact on how things play out in the Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?p=2228854#p2228854

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC is very similar to last night's 0z run.

[SETXWXLADY]

More in line with CMC a little farther south.

[NDG]

A little better model concensus last night among the models.
NOGAPS and GFS showing development faster than the ECMWF and CMC.
Personally I think NOGAPS and GFS are too fast.
I can say with a little better confidence this morning that tropical development has gotten a little higher in chances for next Tuesday-Wednesday time frame in the NW Caribbean, IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

I suggest everybody here watching the potential for Chris ought to be following Invest 94E in the EPAC, as its' evolution will have a huge impact on how things play out in the Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?p=2228854#p2228854

I agree 100%. Crossover or not,it will be a big player down the road.

[tailgater]

last GFS run closer to CMC and king Euro. Takes it to central GOM then shoots off to the east-northeast,

[Aric Dunn]

I suggest everybody here watching the potential for Chris ought to be following Invest 94E in the EPAC, as its' evolution will have a huge impact on how things play out in the Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?p=2228854#p2228854

I agree 100%. Crossover or not,it will be a big player down the road.

yeah mentioned its couple days ago that it would depend on what happened with the east pac system. besides the cross over the outflow from the east pac system will help enhance convection in the western carrib especially later today once the wave axis reaches the western carrib. we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

A little better model concensus last night among the models.
NOGAPS and GFS showing development faster than the ECMWF and CMC.
Personally I think NOGAPS and GFS are too fast.
I can say with a little better confidence this morning that tropical development has gotten a little higher in chances for next Tuesday-Wednesday time frame in the NW Caribbean, IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yeah for sure. and the gfs is finally not keeping the system stuck then stretching it out. a sign the model is getting better handle on it. likely because the east pac system is much better organized and likely to develop which lessens the variables.

[cycloneye]

A little better model concensus last night among the models.
NOGAPS and GFS showing development faster than the ECMWF and CMC.
Personally I think NOGAPS and GFS are too fast.
I can say with a little better confidence this morning that tropical development has gotten a little higher in chances for next Tuesday-Wednesday time frame in the NW Caribbean, IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yeah for sure. and the gfs is finally not keeping the system stuck then stretching it out. a sign the model is getting better handle on it. likely because the east pac system is much better organized and likely to develop which lessens the variables.

That EPAC 94E is ramping up quickly this morning. Models will have a much better handle once this develops.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112886&p=2228887#p2228887

[Aric Dunn]

well for whats its worth. the low has moved off the SC coast this morning as well as the one off the mid atlantic. Also the low over extreme southern Mississippi and Alabama is going to heading over the gulf later ( this is the one the euro had yesterday in the gulf). do any of them transition is question. probably start a thread at some point for which one looks like it might do something.

[Rgv20]

Well its going to be an interesting week ahead.

0zECMWF forecast valid for Thursday Evening June 21.

[Frank2]

Yes, definitely something late in the long term model runs so we'll see...

Funny that a couple of months ago everyone (except NOAA) was saying "below average" for this season but now CSU has changed their mind - as Mike Seaver used to say (Growing Pains), "They don't have a clue"...

Sometimes I think God allows this just to show who's really in charge - it ain't (isn't) us...

Frank