EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The mission is for Friday afternoon. I thought they would go on Thursday but I know there is a full day for preparations. Maybe by Friday system has or would be close to a landfall.

NOUS42 KNHC 131330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W
JWP

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to TD status.

[Extratropical94]

Best Track is up to 30 knots:

EP, 94, 2012061312, , BEST, 0, 86N, 906W, 30, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N91W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH N OF A FAIRLY STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE 10-20
KT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH...60 PERCENT...CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW
TOWARD TEHUANTEPEC. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST OF
MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.

[MGC]

Good cyclonic spin noted on sat loop....should spin up into a TD some time soon....looks to me to be headed NW but my old eyes may be tricking me. Could become a significant tropical cyclone.......MGC

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better and better.

[Macrocane]

The circulation is getting better but the convection is fading for the moment, maybe because of D-min.

[Extratropical94]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It only resembles the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

Yeah, I dont't really see why the NHC should upgrade this system today based on convective activity. They usually wait until a kind of CDO or at least some hot towers fire over the center and sustain for half a day or so and that's not the kind of thing I can spot right now.
I guess they will up the percentage to 70 at 2pm, then 80 at 8pm and either pull the trigger at 11pm tonight or maybe not before 5am tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

I would say about 80 to 90 % now ( although its a depression but they will hold till 5 or 11)

[cycloneye]

Stays at 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, Held at 60%.

[Aric Dunn]

well alrighty then.... conservative I i see.

[Extratropical94]

Kinda understand them, they are just trying to ensure that it doesn't poof like 93E did.

On the other hand, convection is on the increase again, especially on the western side of the low.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 94, 2012061318, , BEST, 0, 87N, 918W, 30, 1006

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Slowly, but surely getting there

[Yellow Evan]

Ehh, looks kinda a mess right now. Won't shock me to see this lowered at 5.

[Extratropical94]

Ehh, looks kinda a mess right now. Won't shock me to see this lowered at 5.

NOT an official forecast, but:
I think they will keep it at 60% as long as it doesn't poof or consolidate further. There's a clear evidence of a broad cyclonic circulation and the only thing that has to organize is the convection around it.

[Yellow Evan]

Still got a long way to go though.

[Aric Dunn]

if they wait too much longer they are going to have to go straight to TS at its rate of development tomorrow we might be looking at a moderate TS. they even said them selves i t could spin up fast. so what are they waiting for. oh wait the 24 hours of persistence to run out.

[Yellow Evan]

I disagree, it is taking its sweet time organizing.