Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

its interesting to note that after looking at the models for 94E and the 00z runs for the future system in the carrib. the only model that does not drop 94E back SE is the Euro. most of the other models have been hinting at whatever develops in the carrib will be interacting with 94E it what appears to a Fujiwara type deal. 94E drops SE while the carrib system rotates NW. not sure if the models can forecast such an interaction, the high mountains between the systems should disrupt that type of process at least to an extent. Im putting my money there being little rotational interaction and just initial outflow aiding convection on the carribean side then after 94E moves inland and weakens the carrib system ( if develops) would take over.

[caneman]

For the record Tailgator. The GFS has it hitting Appalachacola which isn't central GOM. Still far closer to its original forecast than it is the Euro. Still til too early to tell which model will have it right. Hasn't the GFS outperfomed the Euro this year? Wait and see.........

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else notice that the only reason the Euro does not develop the carrib system earlier is that its over central america the whole time? ( only a couple runs were not over land and development was faster)

looking at the 00z you can clearly see something starting to get going in the SW carrib then development stops because the energy moves NW over land till it exits in the southern gulf and develops. other than that its actually still very much inline with the rest of the models.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[SFLcane]

Yes, definitely something late in the long term model runs so we'll see...

Funny that a couple of months ago everyone (except NOAA) was saying "below average" for this season but now CSU has changed their mind - as Mike Seaver used to say (Growing Pains), "They don't have a clue"...

Sometimes I think God allows this just to show who's really in charge - it ain't (isn't) us...

Frank

El nino is coming just a matter of time now in my view. Could have impacts on the season towards the peak sept-oct but well see.

[HurricaneTracker]

Evidence supports model runs
FROM NHC...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 12N80W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS N OF
17N.

[PTrackerLA]

Strong hints from the models that something may try to get going in the Gulf late next week. Will have to watch closely!

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of deep moisture is filling into the western carribean. it wont be too long before there is convection all over the place. Also looking at TPW there quite of bit of rotation down there. according to the models all that should begin to shift nw over the next couple days.

[wxman57]

Evidence supports model runs
FROM NHC...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 12N80W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS N OF
17N.

This wave will move into the east pacific by this weekend. It isn't the source of the model development.

[Aric Dunn]

Evidence supports model runs
FROM NHC...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 12N80W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS N OF
17N.

This wave will move into the east pacific by this weekend. It isn't the source of the model development.

true its not the source but the energy and moisture return is part of it.

also ... first wave moves NW never making to the pacific. second wave comes in ( easily seen coming up on the eastern carrib. ) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

from the discussion.
"THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NW
THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND. "

[cycloneye]

Aric,look what some of the GFS ensemble members on this run for 94E do after landfall in Central America.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,look what some of the GFS ensemble members on this run for 94E do after landfall in Central America.

[img]http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/1096/ep201294ensmodel.gif[/mg]

yeah seems like a combination of ridging and an interaction with the carribean system. going to be interesting .

[Aric Dunn]

12z NAM really pushing that low off the SE coast really far south this run. better chance to transition the farther south it can go. trend so far with the models concerning the SE low is for east coast ridging to extend farther offshore pushing the low farther south.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is rolling in.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[floridasun78]

so models have drop support for nw carribbean system? by weekend

[Aric Dunn]

GFS also dropping the SE system farther south. Also its picking up on the northern Gulf low this run. looking at sat its a tiny little circulation over southern alabama. not sure if it even does anything once it gets over water. but something to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 111hrs = giant mess.




and 120 hrs even bigger mess.. still has the little gulf low which wanders to just off texas coast... then a BOC low and a gulf of hunduras low the east pack and the SE low still east of bahamas. really ??

[Aric Dunn]

And here come the always humorous nogaps !

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like something is trying to get going in the NW carib this run at 120 hours. What a massive monsoon trough though huh?

[Aric Dunn]

well for ever reason the GFS and other day the euro hang onto this little low (cmc has a little of it) is beyond me. 12z gfs so far seems to like it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

fianlly 500 (165 hrs)years later the GFS has something solid...