Not a healthy TD 12

#1 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:19 pm

After watching the visible loops for several hours now, it is very apparent that TD 12 is already in a world of hurt. Strong upper level winds blowing the convection well away from the center. If the depression can't get some thunderstorms around it, then it will be in deep trouble.

I have also noticed that the TD has drifted toward the west...and this is confirmed by the latest recon.

Not a healthy system right now.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:23 pm

The shear courtesy of an ULL down in the BOC is doing it's thing of keeping it in check for now but if that shear relaxes then it may organize into Henri.

zoeyann · #3 Postby **zoeyann** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:24 pm

Just catching up right now, and I really don't see a cirulation but I sure there is one. Lets see if it holds together. Florida might be relieved to see it fall apart though.

#4 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:24 pm

That's true cycloneye. I've been looking at model data and they all keep about 20 kts of upper level shear over the storm. Does not look good for strengthening, IMO.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:30 pm

The 20 knots upper level wind shear is located west and southwest of Tropical Depression 12.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:32 pm

I couldn't really tell the movement of the depression but I agree that it looks very ugly...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_SE/anim16vis.html

SF

#7 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:37 pm

Right now at the 300-200mb level there is about 20kt of wind right over the depression.

I like to refer to it as a "convective haircut."

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:43 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Right now at the 300-200mb level there is about 20kt of wind right over the depression.

I like to refer to it as a "convective haircut."

The latest upper level wind shear map has either not been updated yet (every three
hours) and/or isn't showing what you see.

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:53 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Right now at the 300-200mb level there is about 20kt of wind right over the depression.

I like to refer to it as a "convective haircut."

Convective Haircut? LOL :lol:

:o

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:56 pm

I agree that the depression has gone downhill since being upgraded. Lots of shear there. I think it may just make minimal TS strength though before landfall because somehow that recon plane will find a 40-45kt wind in a squall east of the poorly defined center tomorrow. Looks like a big rain event to me.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:58 pm

A big rain event can be worthwhile... even tropical waves can bring flooding rains to some areas.

ameriwx2003 · #12 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:00 pm

Why TD #12 IS bombing out.. advisory 1A has it all the way down to 1011 MB lol... I agree TD 12 looks bad and wxman57 your RIGHT it will probably just make minimal TS before landfall and it may not be a true tropical system at landfall either??? Hybrid ?? comments??

Not a healthy TD 12

Not a healthy TD 12

Agree

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