EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

I disagree, it is taking its sweet time organizing.

we shall see

[Yellow Evan]

From TWD

"ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM TONIGHT...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST OF MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED."

[Aric Dunn]

From TWD

"ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM TONIGHT...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST OF MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED."

well then there you have it.

[Cyclenall]

Watch shear kick in all of a sudden and 94E dies just like 93E.

If that happens then maybe another La Nina is in store .

Recon for Friday afternoon. I think is the first time I see that wording on a TCPOD.

NOUS42 KNHC 131330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W
JWP

two whole days from now.. strange that would be just before landfall.

They will miss peak intensity again if that is how it stands. I'm amazed there isn't one for Thursday.

Ehh, looks kinda a mess right now. Won't shock me to see this lowered at 5.

Uh no, its looking better than before and it would shock me if they lowered it considering they're expecting a hurricane in no time flat.

Still got a long way to go though.

If its a TD right now as Aric said, how does it have a long way to go? 95E has a long way to go, not 94E.

if they wait too much longer they are going to have to go straight to TS at its rate of development tomorrow we might be looking at a moderate TS. they even said them selves i t could spin up fast. so what are they waiting for. oh wait the 24 hours of persistence to run out.

I was confused at its appearance again eariler and gave me reason to question the structure of 94E however banding is increasing and only a small burst of convection will pull it over for the NHC to trigger TD status. Its rotating well. Consolidation was the main thing lacking. I was sort of expecting 94E to look like what TS Guchol (in the Wpac) looks like right now...compact and very organized.

[Aric Dunn]

I will completely surprised if this is not upgraded at 11.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better once again.

[cycloneye]

90%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, NHC going bullish.

[Macrocane]

Wow! they must be pretty confident in rapid intensification if they're already talking about hurricane watches.

[Aric Dunn]

90%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

yeah not surprised at all. no reason not to upgrade at 11. possibly straight to TS.

if this keeps up we will be looking at possibly a hurricane tomorrow night.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, devlopment is almost certain now. The question is, is there enough convection?

[cycloneye]

And the big question is if recon will go on Friday before it makes landfall or the peak has passed?

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep032012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206140032
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Aric Dunn]

about time. ....

[Yellow Evan]

TD 3E is here!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 03, 2012061400, , BEST, 0, 90N, 922W, 30, 1006, TD


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Yeaaah buddy!

To our friends in Mexico: STAY SAFE!

[Yellow Evan]

Hope MX is getting prepared.

[Yellow Evan]

Adv time.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 140248
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO PUNTA
MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 92.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 92.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 10.3N 93.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.9N 94.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 96.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.2N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

WTPZ33 KNHC 140248
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE
WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO PUNTA
MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

WTPZ43 KNHC 140254
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANE ENVELOPE...
BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS A RESULT...THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS
TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 9.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 10.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 11.9N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 13.5N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG