EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Starting to look better and better.

I think if the current deepening trend continues, we could start to see an eye forming anytime.
Btw, Hi! First post, lurker for a while~

Welcome!

[Extratropical94]

Welcome Zanthe, really looking forward to your contribution. Enjoy your time around here and have fun

Back to the topic: CIMSS Wisconsin ADT says 47 knots. Raw values close to 60.

Code: Select all

                      UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  14 JUN 2012    Time :   171500 UTC
      Lat :   11:09:59 N     Lon :   93:47:57 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.1 /1000.7mb/ 47.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.1     3.5     3.6

 Center Temp : -35.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -52.2C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Aric Dunn]

definitely appears to be more NNW. its to the right of the forecast track. at this point every wobble counts.

[Extratropical94]

The more she moves to the right, the higher are the chances that remnants and moisture will enter the BOC and eventually the GOM.
Carlotta's movement will play an important role in any future development in the Atlantic basin.

[cycloneye]

The more she moves to the right, the higher are the chances that remnants and moisture will enter the BOC and eventually the GOM.
Carlotta's movement will play an important role in any future development in the Atlantic basin.

That is a good point. On the other hand,it may cut on intensity as it makes landfall more faster. But I want to see that recon mission that will be very interesting before the landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

The more she moves to the right, the higher are the chances that remnants and moisture will enter the BOC and eventually the GOM.
Carlotta's movement will play an important role in any future development in the Atlantic basin.

That is a good point. On the other hand,it may cut on intensity as it makes landfall more faster. But I want to see that recon mission that will be very interesting before the landfall.

If you look at the track, it is not going into the BOC and GOM anytime soon (maybe in about 7=8 days).

[Yellow Evan]

Is the real RBT out?

[Extratropical94]

Of course:

EP, 03, 2012061418, , BEST, 0, 114N, 939W, 45, 999, TS

[CobraStrike]

Carlotta is developing a lot of banding... I think it'll peak at about 75 knots before its landfall.

----
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Carlotta is developing a lot of banding... I think it'll peak at about 75 knots before its landfall.

----
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Welcome to Storm2k.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...RAINBANDS MOVING INTO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 94.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAIN BANDS.
HOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU OVERPASS DOES NOT YET SHOW AN
EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
THE EAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION. CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR PERHAPS
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION FROM 36-72 HR. THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HR...AND IT REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AND
MOTION. AT ABOUT 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IN THE TRACK
FORECAST.

CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
ON THE INTENSITY. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 11.8N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.2N 96.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.3N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 98.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 15.5N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its been moving NNW. been hard to track the exact center due to the constant cloud debris. but even so have measure NNW.

[Rgv20]

RI is a very real possibility....

"CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
ON THE INTENSITY. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST."

[Yellow Evan]

Carlotta has been struggling a little bit the past few hours.

[Zanthe]

Carlotta has been struggling a little bit the past few hours.

Looks like it's some dry air that managed to get wrapped around. The core looks relativity in tacked though, and there are colder storms then before firing up near the center.

Wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't gotten windier, but the pressure could've dropped a bit.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 142344
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Carlotta is strengthening. Note the deep convective bursts going off around the center of circulation in the visible image below, indicative that an eyewall is forming.

[Kingarabian]

She's so small and tightly wrapped... She's a ticking time bomb.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 55kts

EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[CrazyC83]

20120614 2345 12.1 94.4 T3.5/3.5 03E CARLOTTA

Basis for the 55 kt intensity.