Global model runs discussion

[northjaxpro]

Aric, our small vort feature near Panama City continues to hang in there, albeit barely. It is a neat feature to observe on satellite imagery. It has drifted east-southeast. Still not expecting too much from it, but still it is sitting out there near warm waters if it can get farther offshore. Plus conditions are actually becoming more conducive for development as time progresses in the GOM. Any vorticity in the GOM this time of year has to be watched.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, our small vort feature near Panama City continues to hang in there, albeit barely. It is a neat feature to observe on satellite imagery. It has drifted east-southeast. Still not expecting too much from it, but still it is sitting out there near warm waters if it can get farther offshore. Plus conditions are actually becoming more conducive for development as time progresses in the GOM. Any vorticity in the GOM this time of year has to be watched.

yeah I check on it every once in a while. the gfs did not do much to it ridging built in. which should happen over the next 12 to 24 hours. that should start its progress of drifting westerly and will give it a better chance would be interesting if it did develop. such a small system.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have aalternative site for the euro that updates images as they come in.


this site is not updated today for some reason

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have aalternative site for the euro that updates images as they come in.


this site is not updated today for some reason

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

This is the only other site I know of besides Accuwxpro. It doesn't have vorticity but it's still pretty good.
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have aalternative site for the euro that updates images as they come in.


this site is not updated today for some reason

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

This is the only other site I know of besides Accuwxpro. It doesn't have vorticity but it's still pretty good.
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

The Experimental FIM model is favoring a SW carrib system.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... 244&wjet=1

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro show little to nothing. now just a quick redevelopment of carlott then moves inland. does appear that there is something trying to get going in the carrib but does not.

[floridasun78]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html work for me next update is at 3:30pmest it show low going toward texas from boc i add 0z run that last one next one will be at 3:30pmest

[Aric Dunn]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html work for me next update is at 3:30pmest it show low going toward texas from boc

check the date stamp its stuck on the 13th.

[floridasun78]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html work for me next update is at 3:30pmest it show low going toward texas from boc

check the date stamp its stuck on the 13th.

my start today on june 14

[Aric Dunn]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html work for me next update is at 3:30pmest it show low going toward texas from boc

check the date stamp its stuck on the 13th.

my start today on june 14

are you looking at 00z or the 12z on the bottom. the 12z is not updating.

[floridasun78]

it 00z run next run soon

[Aric Dunn]

it 00z run next run soon

the 00z was last night. or early this morning ZULU time we are waiting for the 12z run. it already completed but that site is not updating.

[floridasun78]

00z have 14 12z got 13 ECMWF Images (updates begin around 3:20pm for 12z, 3:20am for 0z)

[Aric Dunn]

00z have 14 12z got 13 ECMWF Images (updates begin around 3:20pm for 12z, 3:20am for 0z)

its not a big deal. the better site updated. yeah euro not not doing much at all. I do buy this run carlott makes landfall in mexico than drops south then NE jumps over very high mountains and for a long time over land. if it survives it will have to cross as straight on as possible.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[floridasun78]

that why you cannot go long range models run you see we may not see any thing next week maybe in boc and gulf we were looking hurr in nw carribbean week ago

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 12zECMWF on Accuweather Pro, it has a very weak low (1008) just to the east of Tampico, Mx by Thursday 12z. It bring some pretty descent moisture to deep south texas tho...I like it!

[Rgv20]

Brownsville afternoon long range discussion.

THURSDAY A WEAK SHEAR ZONE/TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE DUE EASTERLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PWAT NUMBERS ALSO MOVE CLOSER
TO 2.00 INCHES AS WE ENTER WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A MORE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. CONTINUED CHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY DAY 7 THAT FURTHER
ENHANCES SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FEATURE AND THE EXACT PLACEMENT/NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...IT
IS ALSO FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ITS FUTURE. /68/

[GCANE]

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Big push north of the monsoon trough forecast in the next 72 hrs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif