WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TH, have you decided where you are going to chase Guchol?

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 10.4N 132.2E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 11.9N 130.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 161800UTC 15.5N 128.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 171800UTC 19.3N 126.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[cycloneye]

Moving south of due west.

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.5N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 13.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.5N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 131.8E.
TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. //
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

If you look on various images Guchol seems to twinkle

CIMSS ADT notes that an eye is visible again on microwave scans:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUN 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 10:20:52 N Lon : 131:35:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.4

Center Temp : -68.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[somethingfunny]

That right turn had better start soon...

[cycloneye]

First visible image of June 15 shows the eye more than before.Also,it mantains almost on the 10N latitude line,drawing closer to the Philliphines.

[Infdidoll]

we might see a category 5 with 160 knots ?

Psst, Euro...Your graphic says "Carlotta" at the top. Wrong storm, buddy.

[dexterlabio]

slowing down could mean a good thing though, might start to make a more NW track. but when it does it should be a sharp NW turn.

[Infdidoll]

The reporting about this storm on Okinawa through ALL the various military Facebook pages is enough to drive you crazy. The latest and greatest from one of the major Facebook pages everyone tunes into for info here (yes, we tune into FACEBOOK for info, sad as that is) just told everyone that the storm isn't going to hit us. What's more, they said they don't even plan on taking us out of Typhoon Condition of Readiness 4 (TCOR 4). At that stage, nobody cleans up, secures belongings, or does any typhoon prep whatsoever.

[dexterlabio]

^thats a confident thing to say. even if the storm doesn't hit the island bull's eye, a track near the west or east can bring some adverse effects. if the storm maintains a small, compact core then thats good news cause the area of most damaging winds may stay out to sea.

[dexterlabio]

streamline analysis shows the storm might already be on the sw portion of the STR and so it should be making a NW turn.

[cycloneye]

JMA up to 60 kts

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 10.3N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 12.7N 129.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 170000UTC 16.3N 127.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 180000UTC 20.3N 126.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still too early to say Cycloneye, since it's over 3 days away from impacting the Ryuku Island IF it stays on forecast track, I only know where I'm going about 36hrs before impact.

[euro6208]

guchol remains a very very compact powerful typhoon and expected to undergo rapid intensification! Microwave shows a well defined eye...

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED WITH
CONCURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS COMPACT AND DENSE WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD
TILT FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TY 05W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS CAUSING THE
STRUCTURE TILT. THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS INHIBITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 141642Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE AGGREGATE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
TREND. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED LEAF OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS
IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
TAIWAN THAT IS DIGGING INTO THE STR. OVER THE NEXT 12-72 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK POLEWARD INTO THIS BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY WITH POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TOWARD THE APEX OF THE TURN. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT - LOW VWS, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, INDUCED BY THE
FRONT SLOPE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER, HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON GUCHOL WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD WEST OF OKINAWA, TOWARD KYUSHU AND INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
A BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THERE IS, HOWEVER, STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR AND DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA AFTER TAU 72. DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, TY 05W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SST'S DECREASE AND VWS INCREASE,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG STORM-FORCE LOW AS IT ENTERS
MAINLAND JAPAN. //
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

^thats a confident thing to say. even if the storm doesn't hit the island bull's eye, a track near the west or east can bring some adverse effects. if the storm maintains a small, compact core then thats good news cause the area of most damaging winds may stay out to sea.

Needless to say, a lot of us chimed in with what we thought of THAT forecast. At this point, JMA's pretty much got us on bullseye.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha I miss Storming and his frantic, "will it hit us?" / "Kadena said winds of 90mph now they're saying 110mph" / "it's going to disrupt my holiday plans..." posts!

[euro6208]

looks like its eye is appearing...rapid intensification is imminent...

[Infdidoll]

Haha I miss Storming and his frantic, "will it hit us?" / "Kadena said winds of 90mph now they're saying 110mph" / "it's going to disrupt my holiday plans..." posts!

LOL...He added me on Facebook. I know he transferred out of here a few weeks ago. Probably still getting settled in to his new home. Kadena's page said they got their info from the "experts" at the almighty Kadena flight line so you know it's 100% accurate...as it ALWAYS is.

[dexterlabio]

Guchol finally slows down...and is about to change course..

[euro6208]

we might see a category 5 with 160 knots ?

Woah woah, let's just take a deep breath and calm down a bit here, one the CHIPS ensembles aren't reliable forecast intensity models and should not be treated as model guidance. You will ALWAYS see them forecasting a cat. 5. One of the pro mets on here will be able to explain exactly what their existence is for... utterly pointless would be a good start.

Two, how does a 120nm CDO alone suggest the possibility of this storm being a potential category 4 typhoon already? I know we all like enthusiastic discussion on here but I personally would like some more evidence to back up your claims before I can take them seriously (especially since you repeatedly claim every forecast agency's / auto Dvorak estimates are too low with most storms.)

Here's the latest Dvorak estimate from KNES made subjectively by a trained meteorologist using a multitude of satellite products:

512
TXPQ28 KNES 141533
TCSWNP

A. 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 14/1432Z

C. 10.6N

D. 132.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...05W DOES NOT HAVE AN EYE IN EIR OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. LLCC
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. CENTER EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0. PT = 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/1235Z 10.6N 132.8E AMSU


...GUILLOT

=

EDIT: And please give evidence to support your reasoning that Parma at peak intensity is similar to Guchol right now!

i should have made myself more clear..i meant to say that parma and guchol has a very similiar structure but unlike guchol, parma has a pinhole eye...

yes dvorak are always too low. heck we wouldn't have this discussion if we had recon in the first place lol