EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONG RAINBAND IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS RAINBAND WILL
LIKELY BRING HEAVY SQUALLS LATER TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.
CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA
IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA
WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 12.5N 94.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 97.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Could this disintegrate like Bud as it approaches the coast? Is dry air still a major issue?

[Yellow Evan]

Could this disintegrate like Bud as it approaches the coast? Is dry air still a major issue?

Can't be ruled out.

[Chacor]

Here's the WV imagery at the moment:

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to hurricane status IMO

[Zanthe]

Really impressive burst of convection. Could be just a sign of diurnal strengthening, could be a sign that it's gonna start of something more. In my opinion, I don't see anything to keep the system from (rapidly?) strengthening, it just has to manage to get a catalysis. You can see Carlotta on the south-west part of this gif.



Really gives you an idea of how tiny the system is.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Another EPac cyclone to issue a RI forecast on...but what to put?

Pros:
Moisture available to work with
Low shear
High oceanic heat content
System is coming together at a fairly rapid pace
Small size

Cons:
Will be approaching mountainous land over the next 24 hours
Possibility it could inhale drier air from the land
RI depends on whether the inner core can get together or not
Small size

This one will be a tight squeeze, as to whether Carlotta can reach RI status (defined as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period). I would personally prefer not even close, but I have to stick to the facts...and they point toward at least semi-rapid deepening. The main hiccup in my forecast is I have not seen my indicator pop up yet (though it looked like the beginnings of it may have been starting to form, after looking at different images). Assuming it was the beginnings, I'll start the clock at approximately 0130 UTC (9:30 pm EDT, 6/14). Adding 6 to 8 hours to that yields a time of 0730 to 0930 UTC (0330 to 0530 am EDT), and that is roughly when the actual RI should begin.

As far as the RI itself is concerned...I'm really not sure how much it'll strengthen (not enough data to go off of at the moment, imo), but I'll take a guess anyways. I'll go with 30 to 35 knots between now and the 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tomorrow night. The 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tonight has the winds at 55 knots...so a 30 to 35 knot increase would put the winds at 85 to 90 knots by then. The peak may come earlier than 0300 UTC, as by then Carlotta will be pushing pretty near the coast, which should help to reduce any further strengthening.

"Worries" behind the forecast:
Carlotta's inner core does not come together as forecast, causing only a modest increase in intensity (probably still on the order of 20 knots by 0300 UTC tomorrow, though). On the opposite end of the spectrum, Carlotta could intensify more than I think she will...and especially given her small size, the jump could be as big as 45 or 50 knots...as seen in other storms of a similar size that underwent RI. As it is, I would much rather overshoot the intensity, and she never become a hurricane.

[euro6208]

interesting...euro shows carlotta approaching the mexican coast as a rapidly intensifying hurricane but doesn't make landfall instead it has carlotta right off the coast as a very small intense midget hurricane???

[Kingarabian]

Guarantee this is gonna RI anytime soon. CDO is blossoming.

[USTropics]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but there is a buoy just to the south of the center of Carlotta.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... hspan=week

[Cyclenall]

Carlotta still maintained her form over yesterday with moderate convection and excellent banding. I was expecting a solid CDO form but waited until 6:00 pm EDT to start the deep burst over the center which might signal the start of RI. I think the intensity is 65 knots as of now and the eyewall nearly complete. The rotational aspect is still very volatile near the center. Its larger still than I expected it to be but if the deep convection over the center takes over (it should) and Carlotta bombs, I would expect the wind field to tighten and the structure to become smaller. Rainbands look to continue hitting the coastline well before Carlotta arrives.

The GFDL was the first to detect the wacky track the NHC is now using. Does anyone else think this is a "worst case scenario" type deal? There are so many possibilities that this might just be more fascinating than any storm in the Epac since Celia of 2010. The amount of rain Carlotta could dumb might be epic on parts of the Mexican coastline and then having a significant system just wonder around there continuing to dump torrential rain...

The latest advisory showing the last three position points being in the exact same place, has that been done before? I liked the 2nd last one better.

When we're using Dvorak until recon arrives, remember how it was showing 125 knots (for many hours I might add) for Bud when recon sampled 100 knots instead...or grossly underestimating pin-hole eye type TCs. I still don't know how a computer program overestimating or underestimating something by that much can be used as pure fact or reliable.

One of the latest TCHP maps. Carlotta will be moving over or very close to the highest heat content in the Epac basin as it nears Mexico:

[somethingfunny]

Carlotta is looking pretty nice in this most recent frame, the infamous "fist" shape is developing. I think they'll hold off on upgrading to hurricane until 5am or 8am PDT, but with Stewart on duty you never know.

[Kingarabian]

Yep^. Up to 70mph.

[Cyclenall]

As it is, I would much rather overshoot the intensity, and she never become a hurricane.

What did you say here?

Could this disintegrate like Bud as it approaches the coast? Is dry air still a major issue?

The NHC mentioning that factor 0 times should be a indicator of how major that issue is. The WV imagery showing extreme moisture everywhere around Carlotta (including inland) should also speak to how major that issue will be. If it becomes a microcane, then it becomes a total non-issue entirely.

interesting...euro shows carlotta approaching the mexican coast as a rapidly intensifying hurricane but doesn't make landfall instead it has carlotta right off the coast as a very small intense midget hurricane???

Now following the GFDL.

Carlotta is looking pretty nice in this most recent frame, the infamous "fist" shape is developing. I think they'll hold off on upgrading to hurricane until 5am or 8am PDT, but with Stewart on duty you never know.

Its predictably shedding its large feeder bands as it transforms into a small hurricane. Will the eye pop out when its done? That's the question.

[brunota2003]

As it is, I would much rather overshoot the intensity, and she never become a hurricane.

What did you say here?

That I'd rather my intensity forecast bust, and see Carlotta never reach hurricane strength?

[Cyclenall]

That I'd rather my intensity forecast bust, and see Carlotta never reach hurricane strength?

Ok, now that I read that again it made sense. It didn't quite mold well with the surrounding sentences. It might already be a hurricane right now anyways, now wearing a nice skirt of convection with huge fist.

[Cyclenall]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAGGED AND
ELONGATED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

This is extremely confusing. What's being described here is not the Carlotta I'm looking at. And I don't know how RI can be less likely when its going on right now.

Latest:

[cycloneye]

Recon will tell us how strong she is when it goes early this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 95.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CARLOTTA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CARLOTTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Almost closed.