WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yes I agree, recon is a must!! Imagine how much more we would learn about tropical cyclones if there was regular recon in the Wpac given the very large number of powerful typhoons we get rather than relying on the occasional major hurricane in Atl or Epac.

[euro6208]

no recon in the KING of all basins is a real loss to meteorology...imagine how much valuable information we can get. records broken one after another...

[Chacor]

JMA is at T4.5 at 0600 UTC, so expecting an upgrade to typhoon.

JMA 0600 fix:
10.38 N 131.23 E
312/03
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

[dexterlabio]

^Are DT numbers of JMA different with that of JTWC?



I dont know if this warning I'm seeing is the latest one as they kept the intensity at 60kts.

[mrbagyo]

i'm a newbie and this is my 1st time posting, gutchol seems to be starting to go more north, just lost its westerly momentum, but still, it will suck up the southwest monsoon.that will leave the PI wet again.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Welcome Mrbagyo.

Yup looks like the turn is starting, and it's often the case as typhoons pass the Philippines you guys get swamped by the SW monsoon surge in their wake. Stay dry if you can.

JMA held at 60kts at 06z.

[StormingB81]

Haha I miss Storming and his frantic, "will it hit us?" / "Kadena said winds of 90mph now they're saying 110mph" / "it's going to disrupt my holiday plans..." posts!

Lol I did see that they postponed the courtrooms fair again this year due to a storm....I miss the storms and my wife was like we left why you still tracking storms out there lol....I was like we still have grounds out there plus storms are storms no matter where...

[Chacor]

Really surprised that JMA are holding at 60 knots despite the T-numbers.

[somethingfunny]

Where would I find microwave imagery for this storm?

[francis327]

Where would I find microwave imagery for this storm?

This one perhaps?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Information from TSR
Typhoon GUCHOL (05W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

[RobWESTPACWX]

Im in info gathering mode? Anyone here any reports of damage by the SW monsoonal flow or anything over the PI at this time, fingers crossed its a no.

[Chacor]

TSR is a private company, similar to Accuweather, and not an official agency (or even unofficial agency) — they're not a weather agency period. I'd sooner wholly believe the JTWC than TSR.

[Infdidoll]

i'm a newbie and this is my 1st time posting, gutchol seems to be starting to go more north, just lost its westerly momentum, but still, it will suck up the southwest monsoon.that will leave the PI wet again.

A warm welcome to you! Hope it doesn't leave the PI too wet.

[RobWESTPACWX]

i'm a newbie and this is my 1st time posting, gutchol seems to be starting to go more north, just lost its westerly momentum, but still, it will suck up the southwest monsoon.that will leave the PI wet again.

A warm welcome to you! Hope it doesn't leave the PI too wet.

Welcome as well, the more the better, keep the information flowing!

[RobWESTPACWX]

In regards to the microwave imagery question, the one Francis posted above is very good, you can also use this here. There static images though but a bunch to choose from.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/WPAC/05W.GUCHOL/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Info gathering done, I just created this video update I hope its useful. Let me know your thoughts and I would like anyones opinions on there own forecast on where this may be going.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJ1zmhU37hM[/youtube]

Also at the end I was sure to give S2K a shout out.

[oaba09]

We're finally seeing the northwards turn which is good news for us. We'll still get drenched by monsoon rains but that's way better than being in the path of a powerful storm.

[senorpepr]

JTWC Dvorak analysis on Guchol increases to T5.0. ADT is a little less at T4.8 / 85 kt.


702
TPPN10 PGTW 151212

A. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 15/1132Z

C. 11.2N

D. 130.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 52NM INTO W
YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AGREES AND PT IS 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


NEWCOMER

[senorpepr]

JMA w/ 60G85kt, 975 hPa at 12Z:


WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 11.2N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 13.5N 128.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 171200UTC 17.6N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 181200UTC 21.6N 126.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Chacor]

JMA is being rather silly now holding at 60 knots despite all the evidence suggesting otherwise.