WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 35.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 38.8N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 129.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 160048Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
100 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND LIMITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
48. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER CHINA, IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO ALLOW TY 05W TO ROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 72. TY 05W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND AS OUTFLOW
IMPROVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 05W SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 96, NEAR TOKYO, JAPAN. TY 05W IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOLER SST
TO THE NORTH OF OKINAWA AND SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO THE HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-
FORCE WINDS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE AROUND
TAU 96 WITH GFS AND GFDN TRACKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER POLEWARD ACROSS
JAPAN. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE JET IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER JAPAN BY THAT TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND EGRR MODELS THAT TRACK TY 05W OVER THE KANTO
PLAIN REGION AND SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODELS
TRENDING EASTWARD AND THE MODEL SLOW BIAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE SPLIT GROUPING, BUT THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST HAS FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED MODEL
PACKING AND TRENDS.//
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