CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.4mb/107.2kt
It was 5.3-5.4 when Recon went in...
EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.4mb/107.2kt
It was 5.3-5.4 when Recon went in...
Anyone think we could see a special statement from the NHC, or think they'll wait until the next advisory? I mean, to me at least, it looks like it's gotten significantly stronger since even an hour ago.
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tolakram
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Hurricane
Latest
Looks to have jogged very close to due north.
Looks to have jogged very close to due north.
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M a r k
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Aric Dunn
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I would bet money that this is close to 120mph. problem is the pressure has probably dropped below 965. wind may not respond before landfall though.
really wish there was radar !!
oh wait they do !! how amazing is this image !!
really wish there was radar !!
oh wait they do !! how amazing is this image !!
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Aric Dunn
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that is actually scary if you never have experienced something like this.
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Hurricane
sure hope its not too populated.... hope you all realize how rare to have a system intensifying up to landfall. handful have been documented.
loop
loop
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Aric Dunn
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the angle its coming in is also a problem... the wind for the most part will be along the mountain range and that angle could cause much higher winds in areas.
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
Zanthe wrote:Could be the strongest landfall in the East Pac. Since Kenna of '02.
Don't think it will get stronger than Lane.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Zanthe wrote:Could be the strongest landfall in the East Pac. Since Kenna of '02.
Don't think it will get stronger than Lane.
Forgot about Lane...
Okay.
ONE of the strongest since Kenna
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Yellow Evan
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While we wait for the adv, here is some trivia
Agatha 71 was in May and hit at 85 knt, it is currently at 90 knt so if it hit at 90kt it would be tied with Alma 96 the strongest pre-July EPAC landfall. Now if it hit 95 knts, the record would not be shared. Dolores 74 hit at 80 knts, and Bridget 71 hit at 85 knts. Boris 96 hit at 75 knts while Alma 96 hit at 90 knts. Also, if this storm strikes as an MH it becomes the earliest MH landfall in basin history.
Agatha 71 was in May and hit at 85 knt, it is currently at 90 knt so if it hit at 90kt it would be tied with Alma 96 the strongest pre-July EPAC landfall. Now if it hit 95 knts, the record would not be shared. Dolores 74 hit at 80 knts, and Bridget 71 hit at 85 knts. Boris 96 hit at 75 knts while Alma 96 hit at 90 knts. Also, if this storm strikes as an MH it becomes the earliest MH landfall in basin history.
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Hurricane
Kept at 105MPH.
O_o
O_o
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Yellow Evan
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Here is the actual adv:
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152350
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD
MOVE OVER OR ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO
ANGEL AND ACAPULCO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER LAND...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION IN HUATULCO
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRING WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...
300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH
6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152350
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD
MOVE OVER OR ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO
ANGEL AND ACAPULCO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER LAND...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION IN HUATULCO
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRING WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...
300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH
6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm surprised they didn't at least bump it to 95 kt (although even that seems conservative IMO) as the ADT was 5.4 at Recon and 6.2 now...
95 knt is fair, but the reason why they IMO did not go to MH status is political.
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