WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

megi was described by JMA as very intense

[dexterlabio]

I agree with what Chacor have said earlier. We definitely have a rapidly intensifying typhoon out here as according to JMA, Guchol intensified from a 60-kt STS to a 100-kt typhoon in less than 24 hours.

[phwxenthusiast]

If the FNMOC is right, JTWC might increase the winds to 130kt and 926mb pressure on their next update...

Also, the latest mwi hints at concentric eyewalls starting to form, what GCANE was alluding to earlier... EWRC are unpredictable and can sometimes throw off forecasts.. I guess we'll just have to wait and see..

[dexterlabio]

Ohh I see..... And yea I remember that too, Megi intensity was described as very intense then.

[dexterlabio]

Guchol really looks good. I am saving latest sat pics right now. We don't know how long it is gonna look like this. Most of the time EWRC happens suddenly and disrupts such a wonderful sight and ends up wrecking the eye for good.

[cycloneye]

A reminder to those who may post images to use imageshack to conserve them and not be lost as it appears we are looking at a marvelous typhoon to see in images and to document it.

[mrbagyo]

nice cdo,, very impressive

[cycloneye]

Uploaded with imageshack.us

[phwxenthusiast]

7.0 now on the latest CIMSS ADT...

[senorpepr]

Should be T7.0 now (which matches CIMSS ADT); cool medium grey continues to get thicker... We'll see if this continues, although it looks like the intensification trend is slowing down

[dexterlabio]

jtwc has Guchol now as STY, the first one for this year. and they seem to be so ecstatic about it as they raised the peak intensity in their forecast at 150kts, and expect it to be at supertyphoon strength as it passes east of Okinawa.

[cycloneye]

jtwc has Guchol now as STY, the first one for this year. and they seem to be so ecstatic about it as they raised the peak intensity in their forecast at 150kts, and expect it to be at supertyphoon strength as it passes east of Okinawa.

Here is the 15:00z warning and track.

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.5N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 37.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 40.9N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 05W HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO STY
STATUS BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A SUSTAINED EYE WITH IMPROVING
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

jma says 935 hpa, the last storm of that pressure is nalgae but this looks way stronger.

[cycloneye]

This is the time to post images to conserve them for documentation as it's reaching the peak.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Infdidoll]

I guess we'll bring in the dog. (I'm kidding)

Those raw T #'s are insane. Big question in my mind is what we're going to be looking at when it gets closer to us. With this approaching on the east side, I'm wondering what the avg wind speed we should expect will be with the distance from shore. Time to start calculating...I'm frankly in shock, right now, over how quickly she is bombing to super typhoon status. And to think I was clinging to the Euro's model that nothing would come of this!

[Infdidoll]

Thanks for conserving these images, cyclone eye! Might be one those of us on Oki want to remember.

[SouthDadeFish]

What a beautiful storm. They don't get much better looking than this:

[SouthDadeFish]

Is there any chance we will have recon? And how do they decide which WPAC storms to fly into?

[Zanthe]

Such a beautiful storm.

[Chacor]

Is there any chance we will have recon? And how do they decide which WPAC storms to fly into?

No. Past recon missions have been undertaken as part of larger research projects. There isn't one actively ongoing right now that I'm aware of.
Taiwan won't fly a storm not threatening them; their research drones have in the past been flown fairly randomly.