EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

The entire thread is you guys arguing the NHC, they are the experts for the right reasons.

We're just stating our opinions. Dont forget in regards with the NHC's forecasts numerous times they would say "this may be conservative". Its only natrual that people are going to dispute a few things. Even among NHC forecasters opinions differ on storm intensities etc.

[Aric Dunn]

Puerto Escondido
is an amazing surf break ! and tourist area. hope everyone got out of the way

[Yellow Evan]

Puerto Escondido
is an amazing surf break ! and tourist area. hope everyone got out of the way

I am finding very little info about evacuations there.

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7oF1WAaOGY[/youtube]

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Another EPac cyclone to issue a RI forecast on...but what to put?

Pros:
Moisture available to work with
Low shear
High oceanic heat content
System is coming together at a fairly rapid pace
Small size

Cons:
Will be approaching mountainous land over the next 24 hours
Possibility it could inhale drier air from the land
RI depends on whether the inner core can get together or not
Small size

This one will be a tight squeeze, as to whether Carlotta can reach RI status (defined as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period). I would personally prefer not even close, but I have to stick to the facts...and they point toward at least semi-rapid deepening. The main hiccup in my forecast is I have not seen my indicator pop up yet (though it looked like the beginnings of it may have been starting to form, after looking at different images). Assuming it was the beginnings, I'll start the clock at approximately 0130 UTC (9:30 pm EDT, 6/14). Adding 6 to 8 hours to that yields a time of 0730 to 0930 UTC (0330 to 0530 am EDT), and that is roughly when the actual RI should begin.

As far as the RI itself is concerned...I'm really not sure how much it'll strengthen (not enough data to go off of at the moment, imo), but I'll take a guess anyways. I'll go with 30 to 35 knots between now and the 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tomorrow night. The 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tonight has the winds at 55 knots...so a 30 to 35 knot increase would put the winds at 85 to 90 knots by then. The peak may come earlier than 0300 UTC, as by then Carlotta will be pushing pretty near the coast, which should help to reduce any further strengthening.

"Worries" behind the forecast:
Carlotta's inner core does not come together as forecast, causing only a modest increase in intensity (probably still on the order of 20 knots by 0300 UTC tomorrow, though). On the opposite end of the spectrum, Carlotta could intensify more than I think she will...and especially given her small size, the jump could be as big as 45 or 50 knots...as seen in other storms of a similar size that underwent RI. As it is, I would much rather overshoot the intensity, and she never become a hurricane.

Well, updating the forecast. I feel much more confident that at least minimum RI is going to occur in Carlotta, and i think recon will find a lot stronger system than it is now. On my phone, so sorry for any errors. I'm going to up the forecast to 40 to 45 knots now, only issues I still see is land interaction. 40 to 45 knots puts the intensity at 95 or 100 knots by 11 pm EDT tonight.

Time to take a look at my forecast, now that 11 pm EDT (6/16) has passed.

The RI forecast period was from 03 UTC 6/15 to 03 UTC 6/16...and forecasted a cycle of rapid intensification taking place. Intensity guessing was, in all reality, an unknown factor, as not quite as much data as I would of liked to look over had come in yet. Overall, however, I would rate the intensity guess as satisfactory (pending any potential revisions of the BT data...which as of this post has the maximum wind speeds at 90 knots at 00 UTC 6/16).

There were two forecasts made by myself, the first one was around 0330 UTC 6/15, the second was an update at around 1330 UTC 6/15.

The first forecast (typed out around 0330 UTC 6/15...valid period 03 UTC 6/15 to 03 UTC 6/16):
Time: most of the day's strengthening was forecast to occur starting between 0730 UTC and 0930 UTC. What actually happened: between 6/15 00 UTC and 12 UTC, the wind speed only increased 10 knots, from 55 knots to 65 knots...while between 6/15 12 UTC and 6/16 00 UTC the wind speeds increased 25 knots...for a total of 35 knots. It seems I was a couple hours fast on my initial assessment (main strengthening began around 11 to 12 UTC), but not too bad overall, imo.

Wind speed: I originally predicted an increase of wind speed between 30 and 35 knots between 03 UTC 6/15 and 03 UTC 6/16. I also mentioned that the peak may occur prior to 03 UTC 6/16, as land interaction should limit the strengthening by then. What actually happened: Per BT/Advisories currently (2:50 am EDT 6/16), the wind speed forecast was completely accurate. The winds at 03 UTC 6/15 were 55 knots (per advisory)...Carlotta peaked out at 90 knots at 00 UTC 6/16 (per current BT), for a total increase in wind speed of 35 knots. Pretty decent, imo.

The second forecast (typed out around 1330 UTC 6/15...valid period same as above):
Time: no changes were made to the time, as Carlotta had begun to undergo RI.

Wind speed: my original forecast was of 30 to 35 knots, I updated it to 40 to 45 knots by 03 UTC 6/16. The reason is that the indicator had popped out and it was stronger than I originally thought it was. However, I only increased the winds to 40 to 45 knots because I felt land interaction should prevent Carlotta from strengthening any more than that. This increase would allow winds to reach 95 to 100 knots by 03 UTC 6/16. This forecast was, using current BT/Advisory information, a little over what actually happened to Carlotta, as winds peaked out at 90 knots. Still not horrible, but still needs work.

Conclusions: We need more satellite data, and microwave images, that update more often than they do now!

[Cyclenall]

I'm not surprised Carlotta went straight to landfall and I thought she did so in a huge way. Very impressive for June. IMO, it peaked at about 100 knots (this is supported and not a guess), hit Mexico at 90-95 knots (touching), and then finally made landfall at 85 knots. When I found out 90 Mph for landfall officially, I wondered how far into landfall it already was because even extrapolating the official values that seemed low. Problem is there probably isn't very many weather stations at landfall and if they were, most likely broken now . Disappointed to see radar go down hours before landfall.

The media failed to cover this hurricane properly yet again (how surprising), nothing at all from The Weather Network here in Canada on TV...not even a slight mention. Instead of talking about Carlotta, they had a segment on "Watching the Night Sky" . That's not even weather related! Not much from other TV sources. TV is becoming more and more useless for any good information on tropical weather. It was bad 7 years ago and now its worse.

Carlotta appears to be raking the Mexican coastline delivering maximum punishment. The GFDL did well in detecting that scenario. It actually looks very good considering past history of Mexican hurricanes making landfall. New bursts of convection near the center and rainbands continuing to form well outside the main area. Its losing its definition but over those mountains those rains are going to be very bad. Yellow Evan indicated there is very little information about evacuations which is concerning and there probably will be deaths.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.6mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.2

I reminded everyone about the huge deviations from the BT/official intensity and Dvorak and here is another stunning example. These aren't just raw numbers, these are Final T# values. Even if this is 20 knots too high, that would still be 10 knots above the "official value". Dvorak estimates can't possibly be this wildly inaccurate right? Assuming here that it was 20 knots too high, this shows Carlotta was a major hurricane during a period before landfall. If its not upgraded then I would love the question to be answered, why not?

I'm surprised they didn't at least bump it to 95 kt (although even that seems conservative IMO) as the ADT was 5.4 at Recon and 6.2 now...

95 knt is fair, but the reason why they IMO did not go to MH status is political.

I certainly would be asking questions, that's for sure.

Wow, only 80 knts. Would have set it at 85 knts (down from 90 knts since it is slightly inland), but I am not an expert.

Not many of us are, but there is consensus that it wasn't 90 knots during the 8 pm intermediate advisory which made no sense at all. I'm shocked it was left at that already conservative value when everything was pointing towards a higher intensity. Recon left Carlotta strengthening very quickly and the satellite presentation was improving much more after it left. Dvorak estimates were around 120 knots final. No explanation was given for leaving it at 90 knots.

The entire thread is you guys arguing the NHC, they are the experts for the right reasons.

We're arguing because it just simply didn't make sense to the available data. I've been confused the entire last 24 hours like when the previous 5 am advisory stated that RI was becoming less likely when it was undergoing RI at that time. It turned out it was because an eye popped right out as the band fully wrapped around and the satellite presentation was rapidly becoming impressive with its outflow. Listed above were my reasons for disagreeing with the official intensity.

Wind speed: my original forecast was of 30 to 35 knots, I updated it to 40 to 45 knots by 03 UTC 6/16. The reason is that the indicator had popped out and it was stronger than I originally thought it was. However, I only increased the winds to 40 to 45 knots because I felt land interaction should prevent Carlotta from strengthening any more than that. This increase would allow winds to reach 95 to 100 knots by 03 UTC 6/16. This forecast was, using current BT/Advisory information, a little over what actually happened to Carlotta, as winds peaked out at 90 knots. Still not horrible, but still needs work.

Conclusions: We need more satellite data, and microwave images, that update more often than they do now!

I thought you did excellent, since I don't agree with the BT I would give your RI prediction an A+. So far your 2/2. Last conclusion I agree with for sure.

Latest:

[cycloneye]

Weakens to a Tropical Storm.

WTPZ33 KNHC 161134
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...CARLOTTA WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 99.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF
PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST. CARLOTTA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CARLOTTA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL REMAIN INLAND OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON CARLOTTA AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...100 TO 200 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...375 MM...ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

A reminder, a bit to late to help. Do not link directly to images. Use the imageshack toolbar below or go directly to imageshack to create a copy of the image using the URL, otherwise all images are live and there is no documentation of how the storm looked at the time of the posting.

Please review the sticky post on this topic here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

[senorpepr]

That's an incredible drop between the 06Z and 12Z best track:

EP, 03, 2012061606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 979W, 70, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 30, 25, 10, 1008, 200, 15, 85, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D, 12, NEQ, 0, 120, 90, 0
EP, 03, 2012061612, , BEST, 0, 173N, 990W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 161431
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS DISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF CARLOTTA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE
DECREASING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW SQUALLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING
FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM MOST LIKELY WILL MEANDER OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE
MOST LIKELY NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. THE STEERING
FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MOVE
LITTLE FOR A DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 99.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, still not dead quite yet. I was thinking that i would be dead by now, but she wants to hang on for 6 more hours or so.

[cycloneye]

The final chapter for Carlotta.

Best Track no longer has TD.

EP, 03, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1001W, 20, 1006, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...CARLOTTA NOW A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...100 TO 200 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...375 MM...ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE
CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND INLAND
FLOODING.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

[CrazyC83]

The best track in the end should be interesting to see. The peak and landfall intensities are going to be VERY difficult to analyze, as there was a wide range in the data.

Peak intensity was likely at 0000Z (about 3 1/2 hours before landfall), but the ADT was 6.2 (121 kt) and the SSD was 4.5 (77 kt). Recon when the ADT was 5.4 (100 kt) supported 90 kt, but the SSD had not increased in that time even though the ADT increased by 0.8 (change of 21 kt).

A blend of all the data, accounting for Recon, would suggest a 100 kt peak intensity, with a pressure of about 968mb. But that would be quite courageous to make this a major in post-analysis with conflicting data. 95 kt maybe as peak intensity?

At landfall, based on the clouding of the eye, it should be 10 kt below the peak intensity.

[Zanthe]

I think this one might be a bit embarrassing for the NHC in the end. As far as I can tell, it might have been significantly stronger then they said. Maybe not, though, i'm no expert. But that was one well formed 105 MPH system.

FYI, two people died in Mexico, according to this from the USA Today

[Yellow Evan]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE
REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

['CaneFreak]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE
REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

It looks like Carlotta's remnants are still down there and according to visible imagery, it looks like it still has a circulation down there believe it or not. I would not be surprised if this area is not outlooked yet again with a little more emphasis.