Here's the last one from 2030 UTC in a larger view:
WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
EWR coming? These are MIMIC images from 0900 1745 and 2030 UTC.
Here's the last one from 2030 UTC in a larger view:
Here's the last one from 2030 UTC in a larger view:
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Jun 16, 2012 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143867
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
Infdidoll wrote:I'm glued to the computer watching this track. Every run by every agency it seems to shift. I'm guessing JTWC has updated again. I can see a change on Weather Underground's site (based off JTWC), but I haven't been able to access the JTWC site in weeks. Seems this is a problem for many people on Okinawa, currently, and I'm not sure why. Kind of a pain when that is the main site we are supposed to refer to for info. I've been getting JTWC tracks off the NRL site or here for reference. Latest track seems to bring it closer to us again.
The 03:00z track is a little closer to you. (66 Miles) The intensity at that point is 130kts.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Question, if anyone knows - Have I heard correctly that Weather Underground bases their track graphic off JTWC? Or was it JMA? I knew they weren't independently forecasting, but for the life of me, can't remember which agency they based their results from.
In any case, I appreciate those of you who have also posted the JWTC info and discussion since we've been unable to access it here. Thank you. Also thanks to SnrPepr for the analysis. I'm really learning a lot from them.
In any case, I appreciate those of you who have also posted the JWTC info and discussion since we've been unable to access it here. Thank you. Also thanks to SnrPepr for the analysis. I'm really learning a lot from them.
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
cycloneye wrote:The 03:00z track is a little closer to you. (66 Miles) The intensity at that point is 130kts.
Thank you so much! We're getting to the point where every wobble is going to start to count. Such a beautiful day here today. Hard to believe there's a major storm on the way.
P.S. Just answered my own question in regards to Weather Underground. Their info is direct from JTWC.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 35.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 40.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 127.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE EYE CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPRESSED EYEWALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT EVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 161838Z TRMM, A 161951Z SSMI, AND A 162130Z WINDSAT SHOW
A POSSIBLE DOUBLE WALL OF CONVECTION CLOSING AROUND THE CENTRAL WALL
OF CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SELF-INDUCED
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONTINUES TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND IS BEGINNING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, HOWEVER THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
HAS YET TO TAP INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
HAS STARTED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 130 KNOTS AS THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) BEING VERY FAVORABLE (30 CELSIUS), UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IMPROVING, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINING LOW. A 6.5/6.5
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. STY 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12. THE TRACK WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS
THE SYSTEM ITSELF WEAKENS THE STR ALLOWING STY 05W TO MOVE POLEWARD
TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CHINA WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN, HELPING TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STEERING STR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 72. STY 05W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT GOES THROUGH AN ERC. THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING
OF THE CORE EYEWALL WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AND
FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 25N (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL START TO
WEAKEN STY 05W. WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS
THE MAGNITUDES FOR VWS AND SSTS INCREASE. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 60. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGINS TO SPREAD AT TAU 72 WITH GFS AND
NGPS STILL SHOWING A MORE MAINLAND JAPAN TRACK. BASED ON THE
CONTINUED SUPPORT OF THE TROUGH OVER JAPAN EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72,
THESE TRACKS ARE LESS LIKELY, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 05W SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, EAST OF JAPAN. STY
05W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS AND SSTS (18-20
DEGREES CELSIUS) AS IT COMPLETES ETT. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND, IT
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
PASSING OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS RIGHT
OF, AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED RIDGE MODIFICATION NOTED EARLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN REGARDING
WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE CLOSE
INTERACTION WITH COASTAL JAPAN DURING THE ETT PROCESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 35.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 40.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 127.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE EYE CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPRESSED EYEWALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT EVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 161838Z TRMM, A 161951Z SSMI, AND A 162130Z WINDSAT SHOW
A POSSIBLE DOUBLE WALL OF CONVECTION CLOSING AROUND THE CENTRAL WALL
OF CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SELF-INDUCED
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONTINUES TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND IS BEGINNING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, HOWEVER THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
HAS YET TO TAP INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
HAS STARTED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 130 KNOTS AS THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) BEING VERY FAVORABLE (30 CELSIUS), UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IMPROVING, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINING LOW. A 6.5/6.5
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. STY 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12. THE TRACK WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS
THE SYSTEM ITSELF WEAKENS THE STR ALLOWING STY 05W TO MOVE POLEWARD
TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CHINA WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN, HELPING TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STEERING STR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 72. STY 05W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT GOES THROUGH AN ERC. THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING
OF THE CORE EYEWALL WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AND
FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 25N (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL START TO
WEAKEN STY 05W. WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS
THE MAGNITUDES FOR VWS AND SSTS INCREASE. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 60. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGINS TO SPREAD AT TAU 72 WITH GFS AND
NGPS STILL SHOWING A MORE MAINLAND JAPAN TRACK. BASED ON THE
CONTINUED SUPPORT OF THE TROUGH OVER JAPAN EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72,
THESE TRACKS ARE LESS LIKELY, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 05W SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, EAST OF JAPAN. STY
05W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS AND SSTS (18-20
DEGREES CELSIUS) AS IT COMPLETES ETT. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND, IT
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
PASSING OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS RIGHT
OF, AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED RIDGE MODIFICATION NOTED EARLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN REGARDING
WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE CLOSE
INTERACTION WITH COASTAL JAPAN DURING THE ETT PROCESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
so i see...guchol remains a Super Typhoon!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 925.3mb/129.6kt
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re:
Infdidoll wrote:Question, if anyone knows - Have I heard correctly that Weather Underground bases their track graphic off JTWC? Or was it JMA? I knew they weren't independently forecasting, but for the life of me, can't remember which agency they based their results from.
In any case, I appreciate those of you who have also posted the JWTC info and discussion since we've been unable to access it here. Thank you. Also thanks to SnrPepr for the analysis. I'm really learning a lot from them.
Its JTWC, actually most News agencies and Internet sources use JTWC, which is surprising since its not an official source. I actually talked to an ex JTWC guy last night, he said they were always blown away when they saw the tracks on WU.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
i think its about to undergo ewrc - concentric eyewall becoming evident.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
^yeah. eye continues to contract, seems the inner eyewall is starting to give in. not too optimistic about it getting stronger than it is (or was) or at least keeping its intensity at peak with this EWRC going on. If it hits less favorable region without EWR completed yet then I think it's on its way down right now.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
looks like its strengthening again as outflow is expanding especially to its north...
its upper outflow was biased to the south...I think this means Guchol is in a more favorable environment.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
Here is my video for today, give Storm2k a nice shootout in it, hope it helps.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HoLSwBLvZo[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HoLSwBLvZo[/youtube]
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RobWESTPACWX
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For those in Kadena, currently TCCOR 3, would not be surprised at all if it goes to 2 today sometime. http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tccor.htm
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
STRENGTHENING!
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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RobWESTPACWX
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Here is the latest SITREP from the PI, 8 reported dead now due to a boat capsize last week, with two still missing sadly.
http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/ar ... %206PM.pdf
http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/ar ... %206PM.pdf
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WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 18.3N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 23.5N 127.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 190600UTC 30.3N 132.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 200600UTC 37.7N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 18.3N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 23.5N 127.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 190600UTC 30.3N 132.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 200600UTC 37.7N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Typhoon Hunter
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Looks unlikely I'll be going to Okinawa to covered Guchol since the models and forecast tracks are all showing the centre passing some distance to the east of the main island.
However those living there should still be preparing for a direct hit just in case Guchol wobbles more to the left than anticipated!
However those living there should still be preparing for a direct hit just in case Guchol wobbles more to the left than anticipated!
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senorpepr
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
Here's the wind radii from JTWC projected out. Thankfully, this continues to keep Okinawa in the gale-force bracket... but barely.
The extrapolated track projects gale force between 1300-2400L on Monday. Peak winds at around 1800-2100L in the upper 40s (kt). Still nothing to bat an eye at... Storm-force winds (>50 kt) just east and some local areas in Okinawa could see sustained speeds in the 50s, especially if this track shifts westward. Typhoon-force remains about 30 mi E of the island.
The 03Z JTWC forecast also projects Tokyo getting into some nasty winds Wednesday morning. Current peak is at 0900L Wednesday with sustained speeds in the lower 60s (kt). Some reports of typhoon-strength may be possible, especially considering track error.
The extrapolated track projects gale force between 1300-2400L on Monday. Peak winds at around 1800-2100L in the upper 40s (kt). Still nothing to bat an eye at... Storm-force winds (>50 kt) just east and some local areas in Okinawa could see sustained speeds in the 50s, especially if this track shifts westward. Typhoon-force remains about 30 mi E of the island.
The 03Z JTWC forecast also projects Tokyo getting into some nasty winds Wednesday morning. Current peak is at 0900L Wednesday with sustained speeds in the lower 60s (kt). Some reports of typhoon-strength may be possible, especially considering track error.
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phwxenthusiast
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Typhoon 05W
That is one impressive Microwave imagery. Really great news for Okinawa though if the storm track continues to push farther off the coast. Don't want people to get a sense of calamity though but ya. Good news.
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