WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN22 PGTW 171130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8N 109.7E TO 21.2N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
171100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
110.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8N 111.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER IT. A 170646Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER AND BROADER
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 170450Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LLCC IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD OUTFLOW WITH A DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD AND WEAK (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC
SURFACE WIND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE MAY REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL SUPER TYPHOON 05W EXITS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LLCC SKIRTING
THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND POTENTIALLY
MAKING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAIWAN IN FOUR TO FIVE
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181100Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Already sustained 45kts (10 min) winds blowing over one of the higher spots in Hong Kong, Ngong Ping near the BIg Buddha!

http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/windbarb.htm?ngp&menu=otherwxi&rwx&addbar

[dexterlabio]

deep convection wrapping around the center of circulation. i am expecting a TD from JTWC, maybe tomorrow morning? if it continues to develop like this then the next named storm after Guchol is very likely.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Take a look at this radar image from Hainan.

[euro6208]

direction of hong kong...

[euro6208]

WOW! i can't believe how fast 92W developed! it looks like a tropical storm to my eyes already...

TXPQ29 KNES 171526
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 19.3N

D. 112.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...92W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF TIMELY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY MAKES THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. 3/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET = 1.0. PT = 1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

should be upgraded to our 6th tropical cyclone soon...

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 19.1N 111.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 20.5N 113.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191800UTC 22.5N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 201800UTC 24.9N 120.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[senorpepr]

Here's my 20Z Dvorak analysis:

Position was based off of spiral band curve. Convection wrapped 4/10s around the log10 spiral, yielding a DT of 2.5. PT agreed... my final T is T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 h; STT: S0.0/3 h

[senorpepr]

KNES keeping at T2.0 or 30 kts. I guess their curved band requirements are slightly different. The training material I have list .40 to .55 spiral as T2.5; although I could see the case made for 2.0.


618
TXPQ29 KNES 172111
TCSWNP

A. 06W (TALIM)

B. 17/2032Z

C. 19.4N

D. 112.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .4 WH BAND ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.0.
MET=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/1750Z 19.5N 112.4E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[ManilaTC]

Hi Guys, this one will continue to enhance Monsoon Rains in the West Philippines

[ManilaTC]

Here is the last 2100z warning from JMA

WTPQ21 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 18.9N 111.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 20.7N 114.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 191800UTC 22.5N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 201800UTC 24.9N 120.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[cycloneye]

James, going just east of your location.

TS 1205 (TALIM)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 18 June 2012
<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50'(18.8°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE390km(210NM)
NW220km(120NM)

Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E114°10'(114.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°00'(28.0°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[dexterlabio]

I believe the name "Talim" was submitted by the Philippines which means "sharpness".

[francis327]

This could bring trouble to the already rain saturated Taiwan.

WTPQ51 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 18.8N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 20.1N 114.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200000UTC 23.4N 118.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 210000UTC 28.0N 123.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 220000UTC 33.0N 131.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
120HF 230000UTC 38.1N 142.9E 450NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT =

[Infdidoll]

Some on Okinawa already starting to freak out about this one. However, doubtful this would be a threat to Okinawa, right? If it does run right into Taiwan in accordance with JTWC's predictions, Taiwan's terrain would likely weaken it severely. JMA's track, however, seems to evade Taiwan. Thoughts?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Some on Okinawa already starting to freak out about this one. However, doubtful this would be a threat to Okinawa, right? If it does run right into Taiwan in accordance with JTWC's predictions, Taiwan's terrain would likely weaken it severely. JMA's track, however, seems to evade Taiwan. Thoughts?

I don't think Talim poses any threat to Okinawa, as you said the terrain of Taiwan would rip it to shreds. And if it went up the Strait and heading east to to Okinawa low SSTs and land interaction would stop it from being strong. My amateur 2c!

[Infdidoll]

Some on Okinawa already starting to freak out about this one. However, doubtful this would be a threat to Okinawa, right? If it does run right into Taiwan in accordance with JTWC's predictions, Taiwan's terrain would likely weaken it severely. JMA's track, however, seems to evade Taiwan. Thoughts?

I don't think Talim poses any threat to Okinawa, as you said the terrain of Taiwan would rip it to shreds. And if it went up the Strait and heading east to to Okinawa low SSTs and land interaction would stop it from being strong. My amateur 2c!

Great! Thanks, James. Taiwan is good for eating typhoons alive and spitting out the bare bones. Might help to kill some of these "double whammy" rumors before they get started and everyone stockpiles food for the apocalypse.

[euro6208]

still a tropical depreesion by JTWC and expected to pass south of hong kong headed to taiwan...

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.3N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.3N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.5N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 36.8N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 112.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND
190300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALIM)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS BANDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BUILDING
OVER THE LLCC, HOWEVER, BASED ON THE POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LLCC POSITION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE HAS STARTED BUILDING
OVER THE LLCC, WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15-20 KNOTS)
HELPING TO PROVIDE AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS BUILDING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). THIS RIDGE WILL
HAMPER THE ANTICYCLONE FROM VENTING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN STEADILY TRACKING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT
FLOW. AS TY 05W (GUCHOL) CONTINUES TRACKING POLEWARD, A STR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGHOUT THE SCS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A
FIX FROM PGTW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED A 2.5/2.5
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AS THE STR BEGINS
TO DOMINANT THE STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH TAU 48 TD 06W WILL
INTENSITY AS FAVORABLE SSTS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SCS AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO VENT EQUATORWARD. THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE TD 06W INTO TAIWAN AROUND TAU 48 AND WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SSTS DROP OFF WITHIN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, NORTH OF 25N. AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM LEVELS, THE TRACK OVER
TAIWAN WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATIONAL ISSUES WITHIN
THE LLCC, REQUIRING TIME TO RE-DEVELOP ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
TAIWAN. BY THIS TIME DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL KEEP TD
06W FROM INTENSIFYING BY TAU 72. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
FORECAST AS IT RELIES HEAVILY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STR, AND IF
THE TIMING IS NOT CORRECT, TD 06W WILL HAVE MORE TIME WITHIN THE SCS
TO INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RE-ESTABLISHED STR TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERN KYUSHU. DECREASING SSTS (22 TO 26 CELSIUS) AND
INCREASING VWS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WARM POOL OF WATER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA WITH SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS. THE IMPACT THIS
WILL PROVIDE IN LIEU OF THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS IT WILL ALLOW TD 06W TO REMAIN
A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL CIRCULATION AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
BEGINS AROUND TAU 72 AND COMPLETES BY TAU 120. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR THE EXTENDED TAUS BASED ON THE TIMING FOR THE STEERING STR
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTS TO LLCC DEVELOPMENT BY THE WARM POOL OF
SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST,
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STR SHOULD
ALREADY BE HELPING THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER THE TAU 96 AND 120 POSITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO KEEP WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL SPEEDS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 180323
TCSWNP

A. 06W (TALIM)

B. 18/0232Z

C. 19.5N

D. 112.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 W BANDING. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS
2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/0146Z 19.5N 112.9E AMSU


...RAMIREZ

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 996.6mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.3

[euro6208]

interesting that euro shows talim intensifying to a typhoon south of hongkong while moving very very slowly to the northeast and passing over the taiwan strait...