ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

For area near Bermuda.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201206180248
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012061800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012061706, , BEST, 0, 292N, 671W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2012061712, , BEST, 0, 306N, 649W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2012061718, , BEST, 0, 318N, 639W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2012061800, , BEST, 0, 334N, 635W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112931&hilit=&p=2230372#p2230372

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This was has potential to become something. The models do show further development over the next day.

Any guesses at the next TWO? I'd say 40% or so.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SHIPS shows it becoming a tropical storm.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 180256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0256 UTC MON JUN 18 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952012) 20120618 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120618  0000   120618  1200   120619  0000   120619  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    33.4N  63.5W   35.8N  61.9W   37.7N  60.2W   38.7N  58.3W
BAMD    33.4N  63.5W   37.2N  62.0W   39.7N  60.5W   40.6N  59.7W
BAMM    33.4N  63.5W   36.4N  62.4W   38.4N  60.9W   39.3N  59.8W
LBAR    33.4N  63.5W   36.6N  60.5W   39.0N  56.7W   40.1N  51.3W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          42KTS          45KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          42KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120620  0000   120621  0000   120622  0000   120623  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    39.0N  56.8W   38.7N  53.0W   38.8N  45.7W   41.6N  37.1W
BAMD    39.9N  60.1W   35.6N  61.6W   32.1N  62.2W   31.0N  59.4W
BAMM    39.0N  59.2W   36.0N  57.4W   32.2N  49.9W   33.5N  37.4W
LBAR    39.7N  43.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        46KTS          34KTS          27KTS          20KTS
DSHP        46KTS          34KTS          27KTS          20KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  33.4N LONCUR =  63.5W DIRCUR =  35DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  30.4N LONM12 =  65.3W DIRM12 =  46DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  28.8N LONM24 =  68.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Shear forecast is with strong shear,but this is non-tropical so it can handle that.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        49    33    33    31    33    18    10    22    22    29    23    24    24


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12061 ... _ships.txt

[cycloneye]

Nothing impressive here at this time.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS DEVELOPING GALE-AREA
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Too much shear preventing convection to wrap around the center....might become a sub-tropical storm

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[wxman57]

Looks like a frontal low. Heading out over cooler water in a high-shear environment.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Appears to be making the transition into a subtropical system. Will likely see higher percentages at the next TWO.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc12/ATL/ ... W.70pc.jpg

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS phase analysis via FSU site shows that the cyclone is already shallow warm core:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/25.html

This is supported by the recent burst of convection over the center:



In my opinion, which is not a professional forecast, it looks like it has a decent shot at briefly being classified as a subtropical cyclone. To have the letter C storm by mid-June would be crazy. All named storms would be subtropical in nature though.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is a better look at the GFS phase forecast, which clearly shows that it thinks 95L is warm core now, and will be warm core until the 23rd of June. I doubt 95L will last that long though. Nonetheless, according to the 06Z GFS, 95L may transition to a symmetric warm core system by tomorrow:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I would not be surprised to see this designated before the night is over.

[cycloneye]

A reminder to the members who post images to upload them with imageshack.us to conserve them.

http://imageshack.us/

[Extratropical94]

I'm afraid that they might not be quick enough with raising the percentage numbers like with that unnamed storm last year.
They might go to 50% or 60% at 2pm and keep it there until convection drops off again and the whole thing becomes fully extratropical.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm afraid that they might not be quick enough with raising the percentage numbers like with that unnamed storm last year.
They might go to 50% or 60% at 2pm and keep it there until convection drops off again and the whole thing becomes fully extratropical.

Except that the GFS is suggesting this thing may stick around as a subtropical entity for a few days instead of just 12-24 hours.

[Extratropical94]

I'm afraid that they might not be quick enough with raising the percentage numbers like with that unnamed storm last year.
They might go to 50% or 60% at 2pm and keep it there until convection drops off again and the whole thing becomes fully extratropical.

Except that the GFS is suggesting this thing may stick around as a subtropical entity for a few days instead of just 12-24 hours.

...which would be a nice solution if it became true.

[Extratropical94]

Currently, 95L is in an area of relatively low wind shear, that's why the convection has been wrapping around the COC so nicely in the past few hours.

95L's position is approximately at 38N, 61W

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm afraid that they might not be quick enough with raising the percentage numbers like with that unnamed storm last year.
They might go to 50% or 60% at 2pm and keep it there until convection drops off again and the whole thing becomes fully extratropical.

Except that the GFS is suggesting this thing may stick around as a subtropical entity for a few days instead of just 12-24 hours.

...which would be a nice solution if it became true.

Yep definitely. Very strange season thus far. 3 STS's to start off the season?