NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

Nice west winds in the island of San Andres this morning. Yesterday at this time it was reporting light and variable winds as the low pressure center passed over it, now that the COC is north of the island closer to the Nica/Honduras border, they are getting the west wind.

Code: Select all

 METAR text:  SKSP 181100Z 26010KT 9999 FEW017 BKN200 27/25 A2977 REDZ 
Conditions at:  SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1100 UTC 18 June 2012 
Temperature:  27.0°C (81°F) 
Dewpoint:  25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 89%] 
Pressure (altimeter):  29.77 inches Hg (1008.2 mb) 
Winds:  from the W (260 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.2 m/s) 
Visibility:  6 or more miles (10+ km) 
Ceiling:  20000 feet AGL 
Clouds:  few clouds at 1700 feet AGL
broken clouds at 20000 feet AGL 
Weather:  no significant weather observed at this time 
 


and the bouy north of tbe convection has a east wind.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[NDG]

Notice how the buoy is now reporting 3 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

[Aric Dunn]

yep has a ways to go though but its getting there

[GCANE]

Nice convergence on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

ASCAT

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds76.png

[tolakram]

Visible loop of the area http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[GCANE]

JB Tweets:

Weatherbell tolling possible gulf development this week from western Caribbean system. Slow to develop tho

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 24/photo/1

[jasons2k]

JB Tweets:

Weatherbell tolling possible gulf development this week from western Caribbean system. Slow to develop tho

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 24/photo/1

Is thinking the ridge will be weaker or break down? All the local guys now have bought hook, line, and sinker into a 'death ridge' forming this weekend pusyhing anything into South Texas or Mexico, keeping us hot and dry here.

[tailgater]

The whole area still looks a little troughy to me, with 4 circulation fairly visible I think the #1 circ. will be the domaint one who knows.


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[wxman57]

Is thinking the ridge will be weaker or break down? All the local guys now have bought hook, line, and sinker into a 'death ridge' forming this weekend pusyhing anything into South Texas or Mexico, keeping us hot and dry here.

I noticed that the talk as far as Houston TV stations is the system moves ashore well to our south with little or no impact here. Euro and GFS certainly don't offer such guarantees. While I do think it will more likely move ashore in deep south TX or northern Mexico, we could see a significant increase in instability across SE TX this weekend, leading to widespread thunderstorms.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS came in and I think its overestimating the strength of the Florida low...I think Florida is in for a heavy rain event tho but IMO the area to watch for later this week is in the BOC/Western GOM.

We shall see what king Euro has to say later today.

[Dean4Storms]

Is thinking the ridge will be weaker or break down? All the local guys now have bought hook, line, and sinker into a 'death ridge' forming this weekend pusyhing anything into South Texas or Mexico, keeping us hot and dry here.

I noticed that the talk as far as Houston TV stations is the system moves ashore well to our south with little or no impact here. Euro and GFS certainly don't offer such guarantees. While I do think it will more likely move ashore in deep south TX or northern Mexico, we could see a significant increase in instability across SE TX this weekend, leading to widespread thunderstorms.

I agree, this is likely to be a broad system also. I don't see a small compact system here.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS........ Still with the Florida low.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[jasons2k]

I noticed that the talk as far as Houston TV stations is the system moves ashore well to our south with little or no impact here. Euro and GFS certainly don't offer such guarantees. While I do think it will more likely move ashore in deep south TX or northern Mexico, we could see a significant increase in instability across SE TX this weekend, leading to widespread thunderstorms.

NWS-HGX isn't optimistic for rain either, but if you offer some hope, I'll gladly cling to it!

[Dean4Storms]

12zGFS came in and I think its overestimating the strength of the Florida low...I think Florida is in for a heavy rain event tho but IMO the area to watch for later this week is in the BOC/Western GOM.

We shall see what king Euro has to say later today.

I don't know, with it just 3 days out you have to begin giving it some merit! It certainly has support from 0z GGEM.

[Aric Dunn]

the fact yhere is nothing in thr boc and conditions are not condusivr there. so unlikely there will be any development in the boc timeframe of the gfs. carrib develoment then drift north is likely

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian brings a tropical storm into Pensacola...strengthens pretty rapidly..1003mb down to 994mb between 120 and 144 hours

[GCANE]

12Z CMC pretty aggressive

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is trending much stronger with this system so far

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
121 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

VALID 12Z THU JUN 21 2012 - 12Z MON JUN 25 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED MOSTLY THE 00Z/18 ECMWF WITH A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE
00Z/18 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES
FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...THEN FLIPPED THE WEIGHTING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO
THAT TIME RANGE. THE ECMWF IS SOLIDLY CORRELATED WITH THE ECENS
MEAN...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO ITS SOLUTION. THE 00Z/18 GEFS MEAN
CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE...ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THE GEM GLOBAL IS ALONE IN SPINNING UP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE EAST OF FLORIDA. WILL AWAIT THE REGULARLY
SCHEDULED 1700Z COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
REFINE THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM INDICATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.


FINAL...

AS A WHOLE...THE 12Z/18 MODEL CYCLE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASONS
TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. REFINED THE SUBTROPICS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS PER
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...OPTING TO EXTEND
A TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.


CISCO

[cycloneye]

This afternoon's Marine NHC discussion:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO SW GULF WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT A FRESH E BREEZE
OVER STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
LINGER OVER NW GULF WATERS FROM PREVIOUS TROUGH PASSAGE. DRIER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO AREA INHIBIT CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTEN OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
TUE BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SE GULF ACROSS
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCENARIO WITH GFS GIVING MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH STRONG E
BREEZE OVER ALONG STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND
UKMET INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE BREEZE. FORECAST
FAVORS ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER OR TROUGH EMERGING OFF W YUCATAN
INTO SW GULF LATE THU OR FRI. OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS GFS AND
ECMWF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC FLOW IN BROAD SWATH AROUND
LOW PRES. EXPECT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN GULF THU AND
FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BROAD LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 16N84W OFF NE COAST OF HONDURAS
REMAINS THE MOST CRITICAL FEATURE AS UNCERTAINTY OF POSITION MAY
THROW A WRENCH INTO MODEL SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE
CENTER IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH MAY THEN TRACK
ERRATICALLY FROM EXPECTED. ONE CERTAIN FACT IS ENORMOUS AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ENHANCES LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH STILL
REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WRN CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
FAVORS STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO MOVE ACROSS BELIZE AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU OR FRI. HOWEVER
...STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
BRINGS WLY WIND SHEAR OVER LOW PRES CENTER KEEPING CONVECTION ON
ITS E SIDE WITH JAMAICA AND SMALLER ISLANDS GETTING THE BLUNT OF
RAINFALL. EXPECT CONTINUED HEAVY CONVECTION OVER WRN CARIBBEAN
INTO THU AS LOW PRES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT
W.