NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

12 Euro then weakens the low as it traverses the Gulf

[Aric Dunn]

12 Euro then weakens the low as it traverses the Gulf

it elongates it and then splits the energy heading over florida and leaving some in the central gulf.

[Ivanhater]

12 Euro then weakens the low as it traverses the Gulf

it elongates it and then splits the energy heading over florida and leaving some in the central gulf.

Never gets going.

[Aric Dunn]

12 Euro then weakens the low as it traverses the Gulf

it elongates it and then splits the energy heading over florida and leaving some in the central gulf.

Never gets going.

shows up with a little better resolution..

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=096

[Rgv20]

After today's 12z runs their is a lot more ??? than answers lol.....The joy of tropical weather.

[floridasun78]

do you see invest from area in nw Caribbean soon?

[cycloneye]

After today's 12z runs their is a lot more ??? than answers lol.....The joy of tropical weather.

And the NWS offices from the GOM area will continue to follow King Euro as their preffered solution.

[Aric Dunn]

surface obs and satellite seem to be indicating a circ developing just offshore honduras. vorticity has increased more this afternoon and there is more curvature in the low levels evident on satellite and clear rotation. shear is dropping in that area and has become quite divergent although shear is moderate it will help enhance convection till upper environment improves.


roughly and still broad.

[floridasun78]

mjo kicking in this set up of system trying get going low shear and mjo

[Aric Dunn]

little better resolution of the Euro. develops it just north of the Yucatan then splits the energy.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Rgv20]

After today's 12z runs their is a lot more ??? than answers lol.....The joy of tropical weather.

And the NWS offices from the GOM area will continue to follow King Euro as their preffered solution.

Or just ignore it like my NWS's in Brownsville

Afternoon discussion

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."

[Aric Dunn]

RAMMB site has a floater.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[wxman57]

do you see invest from area in nw Caribbean soon?

I'm fairly certain we'll have 96L tomorrow morning.

[Dean4Storms]

RAMMB site has a floater.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I also see a LLC just off the SE Coast of Belize!

[cycloneye]

The Belize long range radar will be very important to follow in the comming days.

[Aric Dunn]

RAMMB site has a floater.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I also see a LLC just off the SE Coast of Belize!

yeah saw that too. sure will see a number of vorts. just have to wait for convection to build up again. it if does farther east just off nica honduras border then the shear is much lower there and more divergent.




Also almost not vorticity in that area maybe just a illusion or more in the mid levels. surface obs dont support anything either.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah that rotation is up at the 500mb level..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

I also see a LLC just off the SE Coast of Belize!

Obs suggest a broad weak low level circulation in the region. Nothing unexpected and nothing that can spin up soon due to it moving inland in the next 12 hours. I think that the NHC will start mentioning the disturbance tonight in their 2-day outlook and have a 20% chance of development. Should be an invest tomorrow. Have to wait until around Wednesday for any medium to high chance of TC development in the NHC outlooks, with development most likely no earlier than Thursday.

[Aric Dunn]

melbourne.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SAT...FORECAST LIFTING NWD OF TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIB
FEATURES VARYING DEGREES OF PSBL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND LTST GFS/ECMWF FEATURES WEAK LOW GENESIS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ANYWHERE FROM S OF THE AREA TO PERHAPS THE EASTERN GULF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY HAS BEEN CAPPED IN BREEZY CATEGORY. POP
DEPICTION FROM N-S ASSUMES HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AT WEEKS END WITH COVERAGE BY WEEKS END RANGING SCATTERED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED...SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS DEPICTED ACROSS FL
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON BACKSIDE OF UPR TROUGH DEPARTING THE US EAST
COAST. POPS SIDE TOWARD TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. BROAD HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASCD WITH LINGERING TROUGH REMNANT MAY
INFLUENCE LOCALLY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD EVENTUAL
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF.

[Dean4Storms]

yeah that rotation is up at the 500mb level..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Good catch!