WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

Nice Vis Shot Mark!

Eye on Radar is just east of Okinawa now. Well whats left of the eye that is.

Plus pressure is not falling so rapidly much any more.

[Infdidoll]

Pretty much weak sauce here. But I did get what video I could right around the time of the peak just before it got dark.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2JOfQGmYWU&feature=g-upl[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGtJg9utpoc&feature=g-upl[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCM8zIruMps&feature=g-upl[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQ_4phaHI8&feature=g-upl[/youtube]

Hope these turn out. Definitely not the best video I've ever shot and not with my HD camera...but it's something.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Infidoll, I want to use these but I would haft to get it in in 3 minutes. LOL A little late. So sorry. If I may though I would like to put these in tonights wpw video with your permission.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The 4th looks the most intense but the second is the best shot I think. I might try to use both though.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Guchol moving away from Okinawa. Very fast as well with 30kph forward motion.

[Infdidoll]

Rob, no problem, you have all rights to use whatever you want. I'm easy going. My really good camera is all packed up or I would have been able to get REALLY amazing crisp, HD video.

[Infdidoll]

p.s. - The 4th is the one I got SO drenched I had to stop filming. lol...Since then, it has calmed down considerably. I think that is about the worst we'll see from this storm on Okinawa.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This works, Im going to use it at the start of the video I'm doing now

[dexterlabio]

based on the vid, it seems that Guchol brought a fun storm chasing event in Okinawa. Good thing that this isn't a supertyphoon anymore and weakening or else the winds would have been violent and unfriendly to capture on film. Strong winds are still an issue tho as it approaches mainland but additional problem would be rains and the flooding it may cause.

[euro6208]

wow okinawa is extremely lucky this is passing well to their east but still rainbands and winds are affecting the island of over a million people...
to everyone in okinawa, our thoughts and prayers are with you...

[euro6208]

95 knots

next target: japan

TPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 25.4N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.5N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.8N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.5N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 41.9N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 129.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. AN 181115Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY, WHICH IS
VALIDATED WELL BY THE AGREEABLE PGTW AND RJTD CENTER FIX LOCATIONS,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY CONTINUES TO REFLECT
THE WEAKENING TREND AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
90- 102 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE MESO-ANTICYCLONE THAT ONCE PERSISTED OVER THE
LLCC NO LONGER EXISTS AND NOW THE SYSTEM RESIDES A FEW DEGREES
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (STR). WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS BUT DIVERGENCE
REMAINS ROBUST. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE AMPLIFYING
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 05W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROG REASONING.
B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
EQUATORWARD AS ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY NORTHWEST
OF KOREA, BECOMES ABSORBED. IN RESPONSE TO THESE UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS, THE STEERING STR WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND RE-
ORIENTATE TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS. TY 05W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES. BY TAU 24, TY 05W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR KYOTO AS A STRONG SYSTEM THAT WILL BE UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). DURING TAUS 36-48, ETT WILL BE
COMPLETE AND THE LLCC WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO VERY STRONG VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION, NOT TO MENTION THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUS LANDFALL. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT EAST OF HOKKAIDO AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD TO DECAY OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCHANGED, AS DO
THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST AGREES
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW). THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT TAU 72,
WHERE CONW IS GREATLY DEGRADED DUE TO THE GFDN TRACKING BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS CHINA. THE JTWC TAU 72 POSITION CONTINUES TO TAKE
THE REMNANTS OF TY 05W EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

I hope everyone here knows that the Radiation is well under control in Fukushima Diachi and that its effects in the coming days are nothing compared to the strong storm moving on shore.

I spoke to a few Japanese Mets today, and all of them laugh every time someone announces radiation is going to be stirred up. Please. Calm down foreign people. LOL

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 952.0mb/ 92.4kt

in agreement with JTWC...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest video, feed back is always appreciated, if theres anything I can improve on. Thanks!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Dk2XcF2KRY[/youtube]

[mf_dolphin]

Great information Rob. Looks like Tokyo and mainland Japan in general is in for some rough weather. Thankfully they're much better prepared than most of us in the US for this type of weather.

[RobWESTPACWX]

They sure are, its so odd now to see news footage from the states where people are crammed on the interstate, here this is no where to go, just sit tight. These buildings are really built to specification. Earthquake resistant, typhoon resistant. They know how to build stuff.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, lots of dry air flowing in to Guchol right now. A good day looks to be on top for okinawa.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=216

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 27.3N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 37.2N 137.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 201800UTC 41.3N 142.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[brunota2003]

Looking at the MIMIC-TC loop above...it appears extratropical transition is well underway, with the convection shifting off to the NE side of the system and weakening dramatically.

[ManilaTC]

Looks like the eye is there still but convection is no longer a thick ring