NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[boca]

Yes, boca they did indeed enhance the GFS model, and apparently it has really made a signifcant difference for sure.

Yes I noticed the model is good and we can see how the GFS will do when we have storms to track,but I like the Euro too,but they do need an upgrade too

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

Also the GFS upgraded May 22nd as well.

Really? Can I see a link describing the upgrades they made? I didn't know it did!

[jasons2k]

As you all know, the models will tend to flip flop with the ridge placement in question and the lack of a cyclone to track. In fact, it's a real mess right now and it probably won't be until Thursday when something does form.

A good place to check is always the HPC. They don't flip-flop like the models do and they coordinate with the NHC. They have it meandering in the western GOM for now, which tells me they aren't quite sure what to do with it yet either.

HPC plots: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

It may not go anywhere fast, which will make the timing of events more important down the line. That could all potentially change in the next few days depending on how fast the system evolves.

[northjaxpro]

As you all know, the models will tend to flip flop with the ridge placement in question and the lack of a cyclone to track. In fact, it's a real mess right now and it probably won't be until Thursday when something does form.

A good place to check is always the HPC. They don't flip-flop like the models do and they coordinate with the NHC. They have it meandering in the western GOM for now, which tells me they aren't quite sure what to do with it yet either.

HPC plots: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

It may not go anywhere fast, which will make the timing of events more important down the line. That could all potentially change in the next few days depending on how fast the system evolves.

Good observation jasons. I often look to HPC as well. Hopefully the models will have it nailed down or get into a better consensus with future runs.

[cycloneye]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

Also the GFS upgraded May 22nd as well.

Really? Can I see a link describing the upgrades they made? I didn't know it did!

Here is the post from page 166 of the Global Models Discussion Thread eluding to the upgrade.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=3300

[Rgv20]

Joe Bastardi Twitter

"@BigJoeBastardi:To be clear, system in Caribbean is a 3-5 day process if it develops and will be in gulf, but which would YOU think was worth watching"

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks Luis and that is a very good post jasons. Well said.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

Also the GFS upgraded May 22nd as well.

Really? Can I see a link describing the upgrades they made? I didn't know it did!

Here is the link:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=GFS

[Rgv20]

As you all know, the models will tend to flip flop with the ridge placement in question and the lack of a cyclone to track. In fact, it's a real mess right now and it probably won't be until Thursday when something does form.

A good place to check is always the HPC. They don't flip-flop like the models do and they coordinate with the NHC. They have it meandering in the western GOM for now, which tells me they aren't quite sure what to do with it yet either.

HPC plots: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

It may not go anywhere fast, which will make the timing of events more important down the line. That could all potentially change in the next few days depending on how fast the system evolves.

The reason HPC does not Flip Flop is that they go with a consensus of the Ensembles which often lead to better results but the details are sketchy.

For example the 12zCMC Ensembles have a broad low in the western gulf in 5 days while the operational 12CMC has a TC going until the Northern Gulf Coast.

[boca]

As you all know, the models will tend to flip flop with the ridge placement in question and the lack of a cyclone to track. In fact, it's a real mess right now and it probably won't be until Thursday when something does form.

A good place to check is always the HPC. They don't flip-flop like the models do and they coordinate with the NHC. They have it meandering in the western GOM for now, which tells me they aren't quite sure what to do with it yet either.

HPC plots: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

It may not go anywhere fast, which will make the timing of events more important down the line. That could all potentially change in the next few days depending on how fast the system evolves.

The reason HPC does not Flip Flop is that they go with a consensus of the Ensembles which often lead to better results but the details are sketchy.

For example the 12zCMC Ensembles have a broad low in the western gulf in 5 days while the operational 12CMC has a TC going until the Northern Gulf Coast.

Thats good info I didn't know that about the HPC

[NDG]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

I am sorry to disagree with you. The GFS did not do that well with both Alberto and Beryl.
With Alberto it had its circulation by a good 100-150 miles off and very broad.
With Beryl it kept showing development in the NW Caribbean, while the euro never really bought on the idea & was the first one to show that development was going to be off of the SE US and to move it westward towards FL, well before the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

So whats the difference between ensembles and the model itself?

[Ntxw]

So whats the difference between ensembles and the model itself?

Ensembles are different runs of that model using slightly adjusted initiation data. Example GFS ensembles is essentially the GFS ran several times but with data changed to it. This sometimes can correct model biases. However ensembles are lower resolution than the parent model. Usually what's posted is the average solution given out by the different ensemble members collectively.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

I am sorry to disagree with you. The GFS did not do that well with both Alberto and Beryl.
With Alberto it had its circulation by a good 100-150 miles off and very broad.
With Beryl it kept showing development in the NW Caribbean, while the euro never really bought on the idea & was the first one to show that development was going to be off of the SE US and to move it westward towards FL, well before the GFS.

I thought GFS was the model that consistently showed Beryl with the solution latching onto a NE Florida landfall, with the Euro, CMC and NAM joining it later. I may be incorrect with my assessment NDG and it may have been the EURO that had it first.

[Ntxw]

I thought GFS was the model that consistently showed Beryl with the solution latching onto a NE Florida landfall, with the Euro, CMC and NAM joining it later. I may be incorrect with my assessment NDG and it may have been the EURO that had it first.

NDG is correct that the euro had it first out in 5+ days . It got less aggressive as the other models latched on but was the first. Euro had it as a SC-ish landfall though early on.

[northjaxpro]

I thought GFS was the model that consistently showed Beryl with the solution latching onto a NE Florida landfall, with the Euro, CMC and NAM joining it later. I may be incorrect with my assessment NDG and it may have been the EURO that had it first.

NDG is correct that the euro had it first out in 5+ days . It got less aggressive as the other models latched on but was the first. Euro had it as a SC-ish landfall though early on.

I went back though the old threads and NDG you are correct. EURO was the model to first latch onto the intial development of the Low pressure in the NW caribbean. As it moved northeast, as Ntxw pointed out, the models were not in agreement, but the GFS was the model which picked up on the development of Beryl strengthening and transitioning into a tropical cyclone and headed back towards the NE FL coast. That 's what I was fixated on initially regarding the model on Beryl.

Thanks NDG and to Ntwx for the clarification. That's why you guys here on Storm2K are awesome and why this is my hangout on the blogosphere!

[cycloneye]

Ok guys,let's return to the topic about the NW Caribbean/SGOM/BOC possible tropical development.

[northjaxpro]

Ok guys,let's return to the topic about the NW Caribbean/SGOM/BOC possible tropical development.

I apologize for the deviation Cycloneye. We still are focused on the main topic of the thread I assure you

[floridasun78]

it look were low at it on dry side most storm are to east of low in nw carribbean

[cycloneye]

Just out is the 00z Surface Analysis.