NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Dean4Storms]

Inside 5 days and the models are all over the place. This might be one of those deals where we could have a monster in the Gulf to a broad disorganized Low and we won't know until a day out or so!

[Lorenzo]

I see convection blowing up above puerto Rico.Could the tropical system form in bahmas form into a cat 1 hurricane hit se Florida then rode up the east coast as a rainstorm?Or go in the gulf and do a Wilma track?

[cycloneye]

I see convection blowing up above puerto Rico.Could the tropical system form in bahmas form into a cat 1 hurricane hit se Florida then rode up the east coast as a rainstorm?Or go in the gulf and do a Wilma track?

Welcome to Storm2k. That is part of an upper trough that has lingered for the past few days in the Western Atlantic,but is slowly moving away. No development from that area. The area to watch in the next few days is from the NW Caribbean thru the Bay of Campeche/Central Gulf of Mexico.

[floridasun78]

nw carribbean drying up a bit all storms are central Caribbean

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM still shows a tropical low approaching Texas in 84 hours. It also has a low in the BOC this run as well.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TexWx]

0z NAM still shows a tropical low approaching Texas in 84 hours. It also has a low in the BOC this run as well.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/1773/namwnatl08410mwndprecip.gif

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I can dig that run....

[South Texas Storms]

Same here Tex. We could all still use the rain!

[TexWx]

We've been in this "funk" since the day after Ike.

It's like everything changed after that.

[thundercam96]

We've been in this "funk" since the day after Ike.

It's like everything changed after that.

What do you mean by "Funk". You Mean Climate Wise?

[Rgv20]

00zGFS develops a disturbance at the earliest on Friday morning than it losses it and comes back around Sunday. By Monday morning it has a 1006mb low ESE of Brownsville which is in descent agreement with the 12zECMWF. It would be nice if we could start getting some consistent model support as lately they have been hit or miss.

[TexWx]

We've been in this "funk" since the day after Ike.

It's like everything changed after that.

What do you mean by "Funk". You Mean Climate Wise?

Yes, it's just been dry since then.
Heck, the day after Ike we had a dry cool front.

Not that I'm complaining about that. It was great when we had no power for a week.

[Rgv20]

Well the first real shot of development looks to be in 3 days just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula according to 0zGFS Ensembles,12zECMWF, and 12zECMWF Ensembles....At least we will have a better idea by then.

0zGFS Ensemble Means forecast valid for Friday Morning...has a low pressure just NW of the Yucatan.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

2. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[South Texas Storms]

0z cmc is pretty interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SETXWXLADY]

0z cmc is pretty interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Finally into Brownsville at 192. So far the models are starting to come together. The EURO yet to be seen of course.

[lebron23]

I haven't been following lately, trying to catch up.
Seems like models are finally converging on a broad low (POSSIBLY tropical low) making landfall on the Southern Texas coast?
Correct me if im wrong please...

[cycloneye]

NHC Marine Discussion:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
CMAN...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOW EAST
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE...BETWEEN A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE ADVANCE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NOW
OVER HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH YUCATAN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF
BY LATE THU. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOW THIS FEATURE AS A BROAD LOW REACHING THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 24N93W BY EARLY SAT WITH A MSLP AROUND 1006 MB. THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS ARE SIMILAR BUT SHOW LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF BY EARLY
SAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS REGARDING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FT OVER
THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT DUE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WED ONWARD TO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAD
BEEN OFF NE NICARAGUA 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW OVER EASTERN
HONDURAS...WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD CENTRAL
CUBA. THE LOW AND TROUGH COMBINATION WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE THU. SW WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.
THE UPPER SHEAR AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND ARE PREVENTING THE
LOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING IN THE NEAR TERM. 15 TO 20 KT NE
TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

[NDG]

So now that the NHC highlighted the area yellow, last night's Euro keeps the disturbance broader than previous runs. It surely is not painting a pretty picture in the upper levels like it did a few days ago for the GOM.

[cycloneye]

From the NWS Corpus Christi:

RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT
BUNDLING ISSUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF.
ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG
MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA.

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.