NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

just like that poof.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

['CaneFreak]

Hard to get development when there is 40 knots of shear around, eh?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

just like that poof.

[floridasun78]

were now high shear but to east it droping

[ROCK]

I wouldnt say poof....those are some cold cloud tops. Models dont have this thing getting going until about 48hrs anyway....See CMC and NOGAPS 0Z runs last night....

[ROCK]

06Z NOGAPS paints a wet picture for SE Texas....but its the NOGAPS.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[crimi481]

Just an opinion - based on patterns in/near Gulf over last 2 years

Too many ULL's - keeping Gulf a 'Shredder" of Trop systems.
Gulf is a dead zone for formation...I do believe

[Aric Dunn]

Well the shear looks like it mught lighten up a little has that upper low rotates west more. Visible is indicating that there is some low level turning south of the isle of youth and west of the cayman islands. just the northern end of the sharp trough. still needs to be watched but the poof was the little bit more organized it was yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Dr Masters seems a little bit optimist about tropical development.Here is this morning's discussion:

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is essentially the same as the 00z and 6z. develops just north of yucatan then drifts slowly NE sheared the whole time.

[Aric Dunn]

at 120 to 130 its farther E and a little stronger just offshore florida... still sheared. although upper ridge placement is very close would be a prime out flow channels if the upper low to its west was just a little father south.

[ROCK]

Just an opinion - based on patterns in/near Gulf over last 2 years

Too many ULL's - keeping Gulf a 'Shredder" of Trop systems.
Gulf is a dead zone for formation...I do believe

The GOM always has ULL tranversing it during TC season but yet the last 2 years we have had numerous TC come across and even develope in the GOM....what are you expecting? a Cat5 party every year like 05...

[Aric Dunn]

140 hours coming ashore in the big bend of florida 1004 mb

[ROCK]

well the 12Z NOGAPS is no help....went from a consolidated system a bunch of goo at 60hrs.....

[Aric Dunn]

nothing useful from the GFS today. seems to still be having latent heat problems. thought they fixed that issue multiple time.

[tolakram]

Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Rgv20]

Starting in 48hrs the forecast models begin to have different ideas in the fate of this possible disturbance, that is crazy because with such a short long range forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Starting in 48hrs the forecast models begin to have different ideas in the fate of this possible disturbance, that is crazy because with such a short long range forecast.

yeah its rather odd the lack of a consensus.

[Aric Dunn]

For all we know those random solutions that had development near the Bahamas will happen.

[baytownwx]

I have been a lurker for awhile.....love this site very informative!

Youtube video from tropicaltidbits.com.....Seems to think this area could end up being an Allison senario, but just a bit further south down the texas coast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out...

http://youtu.be/k-GGNWIFoUA?hd=1