ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

I agree. If they named Jose, this should be named (if it continues to keep convection)

[ozonepete]

Here's the RGB satellite with SSTs.

[CrazyC83]

Is that a cold front attached to the south?

[Aric Dunn]

its very likely been a TC for the past 24 or more hours. although convention is limited it has been persistent enough.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS says fully tropical:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eye-like feature.

[Florida1118]

Either Tropical or Subtropical, it should be named if the convection holds until 5pm. If it isnt named at 5pm with convection I will be surprised; I wouldn't know what would be holding the NHC back. We will see what the 2pm TWO says, and will give us an Idea on whether it will be named or not.

[Aric Dunn]

its almost seems that way.

[Aric Dunn]

upgrade should come today. convection for the first time again limited surrounds the center. reminds of many azores systems.

[ozonepete]

Agree with you guys that it's pretty much been a TC for a while and sure looks like one now. BTW, looks like it's slowed down; if it moves a tad more north it will run into very light steering winds so could slow down or stall. Here's the CIMSS steering for 1000-1010mb storms.



My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster [me] and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Is that a cold front attached to the south?

No. It has a couple of troughs embedded in the circulation and an occluded front on the NE side that is marked as dissipating.

[bg1]

Convection seems to be wrapping around in the latest visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

[Florida1118]

Doesn't sound like they will upgrade it anytime soon.

[bg1]

Doesn't sound like they will upgrade it anytime soon.

Maybe at 5 pm they will put out a special outlook (80-100%) if convection persists?

[Florida1118]

Doesn't sound like they will upgrade it anytime soon.

Maybe at 5 pm they will put out a special outlook (80-100%) if convection persists?

In my opinion, if there is no renumber and no storm at 5pm, its over. Who knows, it might be upgraded at 11pm...but 95L is really short on time. This might just be a case of them upgrading post-season. Convection is the only thing that is keeping the NHC from upgrading. They probably wont do a special outlook though, since this is not a threat to any land areas.

[ozonepete]

Boy, they're gonna be busy in the post-season the way things are going so far.

[senorpepr]

SSD is accomplishing Dvorak analyses on 95L: 19/1745 UTC 39.4N 58.0W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the update.

Looks like the center has drifted southeastward over the last few hours if you watch the loops.

(or maybe even south-southeastward)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm going to be completely and utterly shocked if they do not upgrade at 5PM EDT or 11PM EDT. It meets all the criteria as is.