NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

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Aric Dunn
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#381 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:13 pm

12z CMC ... similar to last

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#382 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:For all we know those random solutions that had development near the Bahamas will happen.


At this point nothing is discounted with the many different scenarios painted by the models. :)
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#383 Postby crimi481 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:21 pm

Pattern keeps repeating here
ULL diving to S. Mex -and 1 in central Gulf

Pull up dry air - cause sheer. To come -Must be a right sided weather maker to effect Fl -again
Just a guess here -may be another Hybrid thingy

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#384 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:37 pm

crimi481 wrote:Pattern keeps repeating here
ULL diving to S. Mex -and 1 in central Gulf

Pull up dry air - cause sheer. To come -Must be a right sided weather maker to effect Fl -again
Just a guess here -may be another Hybrid thingy

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash


For the time being, I have resigned myself to this thinking for now. Models are simply having too difficult of a time consolidating a Low presure center in one specific region. They have been all over the place.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#385 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:42 pm

seems attm that vort has decreased in the area...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#386 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:44 pm

ROCK wrote:seems attm that vort has decreased in the area...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


?? its higher. if you go back 3 hrs its higher now than earlier.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#387 Postby TexWx » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:46 pm

baytownwx wrote:I have been a lurker for awhile.....love this site very informative!

Youtube video from tropicaltidbits.com.....Seems to think this area could end up being an Allison senario, but just a bit further south down the texas coast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out...

http://youtu.be/k-GGNWIFoUA?hd=1




Interesting stuff.... I don't think he was talking about Allison from 2001, though.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#388 Postby crimi481 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:48 pm

Overall weather/ atmosheric patterns have been like from another Planet (last 2-3 years)
La Nina - Lo Nonna - Los Ninanonna. What the heck?
Will normal ever return?
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#389 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:seems attm that vort has decreased in the area...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


?? its higher. if you go back 3 hrs its higher now than earlier.



must not be looking at the same map.... :) 3 hrs ago it was way higher than it is now...
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#390 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:52 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:seems attm that vort has decreased in the area...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


?? its higher. if you go back 3 hrs its higher now than earlier.



must not be looking at the same map.... :) 3 hrs ago it was way higher than it is now...




guess its close. a little farther north is all.
3 hours ago..

Image


now'
Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#391 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:54 pm

Remains at 10%.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#392 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:57 pm

yep forgot to refresh the map..... :lol: your map is correct Aric....
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#393 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:04 pm

Euro weaker.... just a sharp trough.

Image
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#394 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:11 pm

you know here is a possibility...

there is a decent mid level circ that has developed about to cross central Cuba and into the southern bahamas and florida straights. I do recall the euro had a system come up that way a few days ago... maybe its gets past cuba and since there is a lot more convection with that something works down the surface and there is a pre existing trough there as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#395 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:17 pm

96 hrs Euro tropical storm ...
Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#396 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:26 pm

ROCK wrote:yep forgot to refresh the map..... :lol: your map is correct Aric....


18z update.

farther north and now less vorticity and elongated.

Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#397 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:37 pm

becoming elongated.

Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#398 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:45 pm

168hrs deepening

Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#399 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:49 pm

192kts.

40kt ts into big bend.... similar to the gfs.

Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#400 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:53 pm

At least some consensus on that run. :)
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