NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

At least some consensus on that run.

yeah timing is a little off but not too bad. lol

[jlauderdal]

192kts.

40kt ts into big bend.... similar to the gfs.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nds192.gif

that 192kts will do some serious damage

[Aric Dunn]

192kts.

40kt ts into big bend.... similar to the gfs.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbWinds192.gif[/ig]

that 192kts will do some serious damage

lol sorry not kts.... 194 hrs.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm pretty sure he meant it hit at 192hrs from now.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF wants to split the low/energy in the western gulf by around 120hrs with one eventually moving to Florida and the other drifting west while it dissipates in Mexico. Will be interesting to see what the ECMWF Ensembles have to say.

[Cyclenall]

Overall weather/ atmosheric patterns have been like from another Planet (last 2-3 years)
La Nina - Lo Nonna - Los Ninanonna. What the heck?
Will normal ever return?

In a short answer, no.

[Aric Dunn]

better loop of Euro. looks like about 1000 to 1004 mb just north of tampa. (End of run has a large wave coming off africa too)


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[baytownwx]

I have been a lurker for awhile.....love this site very informative!

Youtube video from tropicaltidbits.com.....Seems to think this area could end up being an Allison senario, but just a bit further south down the texas coast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out...

http://youtu.be/k-GGNWIFoUA?hd=1

Interesting stuff.... I don't think he was talking about Allison from 2001, though.

Yes, sorry he was talking about Allison from 1989 which still caused extensive flooding in Tx/LA.

[cycloneye]

HPC afternoon discussion: Uncertainty is the word here.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 22 2012 - 12Z TUE JUN 26 2012

THE ORIGINAL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS
3-5 AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7
WAS USED FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE...BUT MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING LARGE SPREAD WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...SO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.

RAUSCH/GERHARDT

[Rgv20]

Sounds like the HPC/NHC is as lost as we are........

"FINAL...
THE ORIGINAL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS
3-5 AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7
WAS USED FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE...BUT MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING LARGE SPREAD WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...SO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST."

[Dean4Storms]

Well that now makes it the ECMWF, CMC and GFS taking a system anywhere from the FL Panhandle to the Big Bend area.

Looks like a big shift eastward!

[ROCK]

I dont know if you would call it a big shift eastward. I dont think the models have a center to track with no invest tag yet..... MX to FL should just about cover it.....

[Rgv20]

Well that now makes it the ECMWF, CMC and GFS taking a system anywhere from the FL Panhandle to the Big Bend area.

Looks like a big shift eastward!

Its not so much that they are shifting, is the they want to split the low in the Southern GOM with a weak one going West and the other ENE.

[Riptide]

Tommorow is perhaps the day when this broad rotation becomes more noticeable and organized. Convection is already building towards the area of interest in the SW Carribean.

[stormandan28]

whatever it becomes or doesn't become looks like alot of rain for Florida.



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[Aric Dunn]

looks like we are finally getting some signs of a circ developing near and around the isle of youth. its very broad and may blow its self apart if the convection collapses but if convection continues to increase and we get some pressure falls could close off a circ overnight.

will of course still be sheared though.

[northjaxpro]

looks like we are finally getting some signs of a circ developing near and around the isle of youth. its very broad and may blow its self apart if the convection collapses but if convection continues to increase and we get some pressure falls could close off a circ overnight.

will of course still be sheared though.

Yes, no question that whatever tries to form will be a sheared system. Complex pattern right now in the Gulf of Mexico with a Upper Level Low over Northern Mexico coast and another one in the Central GOM. Right now, not an ideal set-up for development of tropical cyclone. However, the deep tropical moisture is rapidly surging northward from the Caribbean across the Florida peninsula. Lots of rain looks like in store for the peninsula for the next several days.

[Lorenzo]

I am hearing that the carribean system could get in the gulf deeping developed then the trough will push it back east into Florida?Could this be true?

[Aric Dunn]

I am hearing that the carribean system could get in the gulf deeping developed then the trough will push it back east into Florida?Could this be true?

to early to say for sure. but Florida will likely receive a lot of rain regardless of development.

[cycloneye]

IMO,if/when this becomes a invest in the future,I am sure that the models will have a better grasp of things.