FINAL WARNINGWTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 35.3N 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 37 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 137.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 39.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.9N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 138.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JAPAN SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAD RAPIDLY MOVED INLAND, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE KII PENINSULA
NEAR NAGOYA CHUBU. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE
SYSTEM BECAME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO
DRAG ACROSS THE JAPANESE ALPS AND THE REMNANT LOW, SHOULD IT SURVIVE
THE RUGGED TERRAIN, WILL EMERGE IN THE COLD PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH
OF HOKKAIDO AS A COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 12. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W
(TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
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