ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Zanthe]

Beautiful storm. Surprised they haven't already named it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We have Tropical Storm Chris!

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[RL3AO]

AL, 03, 2012061918, , BEST, 0, 395N, 580W, 40, 1005,

We should have Chris at 2100.

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2012061918, , BEST, 0, 395N, 580W, 40, 1005,

We should have Chris at 2100.

Yes!!

AL, 03, 2012061918, , BEST, 0, 395N, 580W, 40, 1005, TS


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[tolakram]

Live visible, best I can do with the east coast view.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Seems to be moving south west.

[HurrMark]

Up to the 'C's...this season is definitely reminding me of 97. If 'Debby' forms from that mess in the Caribbean, we could have four TS's by the end of June...although like last year, no hurricanes to start.

[cycloneye]

Looks very impressive for being almost at 40N.

[tolakram]

Hurricane sector view, better.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[senorpepr]

Tropical Storm Chris would be the 3rd earliest 3rd TS to form... behind 1887 (12 Jun) and 1959 (18 Jun)... Chris WOULD be the earliest "C" name

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 191950
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1950 UTC TUE JUN 19 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS (AL032012) 20120619 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120619 1800 120620 0600 120620 1800 120621 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 39.5N 58.0W 39.2N 56.3W 38.4N 52.7W 38.8N 46.2W
BAMD 39.5N 58.0W 38.6N 55.6W 37.7N 49.9W 39.5N 42.4W
BAMM 39.5N 58.0W 38.8N 56.0W 38.0N 50.8W 39.7N 44.0W
LBAR 39.5N 58.0W 39.4N 55.3W 39.2N 52.1W 38.8N 47.8W
SHIP 40KTS 41KTS 45KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 41KTS 45KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120621 1800 120622 1800 120623 1800 120624 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.3N 42.5W 45.6N 43.9W 45.6N 47.8W 43.2N 49.8W
BAMD 42.6N 38.2W 47.3N 30.0W 49.7N 9.7W 54.1N 7.8E
BAMM 42.5N 41.8W 46.5N 43.6W 46.5N 48.2W 43.9N 50.4W
LBAR 39.4N 43.0W 42.6N 32.6W 45.6N 32.6W 49.1N 25.9W
SHIP 56KTS 58KTS 53KTS 39KTS
DSHP 56KTS 58KTS 53KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 39.5N LONCUR = 58.0W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 39.1N LONM12 = 59.6W DIRM12 = 59DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 38.0N LONM24 = 61.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Dean4Storms]

I'll need an explanation how this is considered a tropical convective warm core system???

[wxman57]

Wonder if we'll get any "Tropical" storms this year? That is, forming in the deep tropics.

[cycloneye]

Wonder if we'll get any "Tropical" storms this year? That is, forming in the deep tropics.

From future 96L?

[RL3AO]

So this is really a warm core tropical system with convection being caused from latent heat?

[Aric Dunn]

we didn't have the c storm in 2005 until july 4th.

[Zanthe]

we didn't have the c storm in 2005 until july 4th.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves and start comparing '12 to '05. 2005 was such an extraordinary year, I (personally) don't like comparing anything to a record year when we're just starting out.

[wxman57]

we didn't have the c storm in 2005 until july 4th.

Pre and Early-season subtropical storm formation is not a good indicator of an active season. If the 3 (4 if you count the earlier Azores storm) had formed in the deep tropics (Caribbean or MDR), then that would certainly indicate quite favorable conditions in the tropics and a very active season ahead. Of course, maybe we'll just have half a dozen semi-tropical systems forming in the subtropics and another 10 purely tropical systems...

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sorry, but this looks like a frontal low definitely draped at the end of a trough! I don't see the "warm core" at all!

[HurrMark]

Remember 1997...we had five tropical storms by the middle of July...but one thing about those storms was that they were forming outside the deep tropics. And after those five, we basically had nothing the rest of the season. So while I am not saying we will end up with as quiet a season as 1997 turned out to be, this early activity should not be interpreted that we are on a pace to beat any records.

[Zanthe]

FWIW, incase people might have thought it wasn't official, the NHC floater page is calling it Chris now.

Hi Chris!

Why did my computer auto correct official to OfficeMax...uninstalling that plug in!