NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[northjaxpro]

NWS Houston AFD excerpt late this afternoon. Looks as if Texas and the NW Gulf region will se hot and dry weather heading into this weekend as a deep layered ridge will build in over the weekend, which will block any tropical system affecting them:

RAIN CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE TO NIL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. LATE WEEK UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EXPANDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 85H
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH 10-5H
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING BY ANOTHER 30 M OR SO...TRANSLATES TO
HOT AND DRY GOING THROUGH THIS FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER. NO MAJOR
CHANGE ON THE GFS/ECMWF 19/12Z RUNS CONCERNING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CIRCULATION...STILL LARGE AND BROAD AND POSES NO THREAT TO THE TEXAS
COASTLINE THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. 31

[Big O]

While the 12z European operational has a land falling tropical system over the NE Gulf coast, the ensemble mean leaves open the possibility of a western Gulf coast hit. Sorry, but I can't upload images via my IPad. Images can be seen at ecmwf.int

[Aric Dunn]

im starting to think that we might end up seeing something on the atlantic side as well. or exclusively.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Rgv20]

Looking closely at the models it looks like they try to develop the Low in the Southern GOM by around Friday but they drop it in favor for the Eastern Gulf Low (GFS&ECMWF). If we at least had an invest the models would more than likely start being more consistent.

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS....shears it apart and sends the energy into the MX/TX line...seems plausible given the high dropping down in the next few days. Models are just way out there right now to pin this down yet...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[jasons2k]

18Z NOGAPS....shears it apart and sends the energy into the MX/TX line...seems plausible given the high dropping down in the next few days. Models are just way out there right now to pin this down yet...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

At this point, I'd believe anything.

We also have to remember it's only June so systems have a tougher time to get going, even if the MJO is favorable.

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmm, think we have something developing to the east of the Isle of Youth south of Cuba.

If this continues with the deep convection there will be little doubt in my mind that the eastern Gulf will need to monitor this close.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html


Edited to say.... I swear it looks as if a ridge is trying to build in over the top of this blow up of convection. Note the clockwise rotation of the upper cloud debris?

[ROCK]

I think Aric has pinned it....Isle of Youth.....the best vort right now along with low level convergence....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[floridasun78]

it look like low maybe trying form in central bahamas look at loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

[Ivanhater]

I just don't see this getting organized in the Gulf...looks like a rainmaker though.

[floridasun78]

you see banding in bahamas in sat pic

[StarmanHDB]

HUGE explosion of convection just north of the Cayman Islands!

[floridasun78]

i got feeling this may go ne and dont bring rain to fl as forecast but hit bahamas hard and haiti and cuba and cayman

[ROCK]

I just don't see this getting organized in the Gulf...looks like a rainmaker though.

a lot of models see it becoming at least a TS...keep hope alive...

[psyclone]

the boring june option of "no development" is certainly on the table here. at least moisture will be returning to Florida. 4 consecutive days of no rain and relatively low dew points this late in june is as remarkable as it is unsustainable.

[Dean4Storms]

i got feeling this may go ne and dont bring rain to fl as forecast but hit bahamas hard and haiti and cuba and cayman

No way, too much of a ridge. Note that everything lower level is moving east to west trapped under the East CONUS ridging that extends way out into the Atlantic. Whatever this does it will eventually end up in the Gulf. What it does there and ultimately ends up is the big question!

[ROCK]

IMO, the best chance currently is to the West of those cold tops. Current low level flow suggests into the GOM....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

[ROCK]

i got feeling this may go ne and dont bring rain to fl as forecast but hit bahamas hard and haiti and cuba and cayman

No way, too much of a ridge. Note that everything lower level is moving east to west trapped under the East CONUS ridging that extends way out into the Atlantic. Whatever this does it will eventually end up in the Gulf. What it does there and ultimately ends up is the big question!

you beat me to it....but at least I posted a map....

[cycloneye]

Low Level Convergence has increased near the Island of Youth.