NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

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Ivanhater
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#441 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:37 pm

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#442 Postby Zanthe » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:40 pm

Haven't been looking too closely at this system, but it looks like convection has increased quite a bit and may look the best the system has looked in it's lifetime -- right?
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#443 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:41 pm

Ivanhater wrote:]

if that come over south fl that going big rain
Last edited by Ivanhater on Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Remove IMG tags
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#444 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:45 pm

If a Low doesn't form under all that deep convection I'd be surprised!
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#445 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:46 pm

shear still over area
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#446 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:46 pm

Certainly deep moisture tonight

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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#447 Postby canes04 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:54 pm

invest by sunrise?
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#448 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:59 pm

canes04 wrote:invest by sunrise?

dont think that fast
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#449 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:07 pm

watch isle of youth radar SFor signs of any rotation.
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#450 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:watch isle of youth radar SFor signs of any rotation.


Here it is.

Image
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#451 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:11 pm

Tropical Storm Chris forms, Debby by the weekend? Likely Florida impacts.
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... e-weekend/
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#452 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:13 pm

those are some really cold tops and huge area at that...if it persists throughout the night then I would think invest very soon....
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#453 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:17 pm

here it is. showing developing circ and some curvature ... invest

in the morning if it contI

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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#454 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:21 pm

with that radar shot I would say invest VERY soon....I have seen worst called an invest with limited model support. This one has support but the support is all over the place....
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#455 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:25 pm

The little storm that was in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is crossing eastern Mexico now heading north I think, not great vorticity at 850mb level as it's crossing the mountains but still pretty good at the 750 and 500 mb levels.
Should it head into the BOC it will need to watched closely.
36hr loop, speed up the animation all the way.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#456 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:31 pm

the TWO should be interesting....I bet they bump up to 25%...if its Stewart maybe 15%... :lol:
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#457 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:32 pm

A D the Key West long range is also showing the Northern half of that Circ.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#458 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:39 pm

here's a radar loop of the area appoaching the BOC.

Image
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#459 Postby psyclone » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:43 pm

That radar is impressive. and what a tremendous amount of moisture. no wonder the gfs has been spitting out some ridiculous rainfall amounts.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#460 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:58 pm

I don't see this doing much of nothing in the gulf, regardless of what models show. Which by the way he been nothing but comedic since last week . Heat ridge will be flexing muscles out of the plains, hot and dry all along the gulf coast.Only escape for this system will be NE over Florida and all it will probably be is a sheared rainy mess.

Sorry tailgator talking about system in Caribbean, not yours
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