NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[floridasun78]

very rainy here in miami today

[tolakram]

My best guesstimate.

GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show some kind of low pressure forming in the central gulf and then moving northeast. I say we get some kind of development, at least an invest, and as it moves toward Florida there will be intense discussion about development ... but I'm not certain it will reach TD status. The fact that NOGAPS now shows nothing increases my confidence of something forming.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

so area north tampa may need watch area

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion by Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[NDG]

circ moving off north coast of cuba. into florida straights wkll like deepen

I wouldn't say a circulation but definitely a nice vorticity and is right by the surface trough, as it moves WNW during the next couple of days I think this the area to watch as it posititions itself north of the Yucatan Peninsula merging with the moisture coming in from the EPAC.

Edit: Latest vorticity map agrees with us.

[Rgv20]

HPC Early Morning Discussion......Uncertainty still being the keyword here.

"ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS AND POTENTIAL THAT THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE WEST COAST TROF AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LEAD
TO USING A 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN BLEND FOR DAYS
3-4 SAT-SUN... FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
DAYS 5-7 TO REPRESENT CONSENSUS FOR THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROF AND TO
SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAIN SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN THE WEST COAST TROF.
THE MANUAL FCST STAYS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NHC/HPC COORDINATED
CONTINUITY OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE SERN COAST WITH PSBL
TROPICAL EVOLUTION... WITH AT BEST A WEAK REFLECTION OFF THE SERN
COAST VERSUS THE STRONGER FEATURES DEPICTED IN THE GFS/CANADIAN.
WEAK STEERING FLOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
EXACT DEGREE OF ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION KEEP CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW
OVER THIS AREA."

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, whatever tropical entity that tries to develop looks to move into an area in the Southern GOM either just north or northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 2-3 days.

[Dean4Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]00z Canadian slams Pensacola again[quote]


That bothers me, it has been pretty consistent with this.

[Dean4Storms]

Here is this morning's discussion by Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Kind of lost why he's not buying it. An amplified upper pattern with a digging trough in the eastern US is more likely than not going to pick up a tropical system in the Gulf!

[tolakram]

NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Aric Dunn]

Well I would imagine a invest itself will be coming soon.

[tolakram]

I made mine blue, so it was as good looking as yours.

The twitter bot in the s2k chatroom informed me of the new plan, otherwise I would not have looked.

[Dave]

Just cleared my work schedule for Friday June 22nd @ 1800 Z.....

[cycloneye]

Just cleared my work schedule for Friday June 22nd @ 1800 Z.....

Excellent! I imagine 96L will be up shortly.

[floridasun78]

it look like low will be in central gulf by friday that were plane going fly too

[canes04]

We should have a invest anytime now.

[Dave]

Center Fix on 6/22/12 @ 1800Z

[boca]

I would assume that the area at 24n 89w is from the energy coming up from Central America and the Yucatan.

[tolakram]

That's my assumption. The CMC model shows it best, though not likely to happen as quickly as the CMC predicts.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

I see a broad area of turning just to the north of Cuba so not a lot of consolidation yet. I am not buying a digging SW either...We are in June and not late Sept...