NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

well the area north of cuba is heading wnw snd would be near that area in two days.

[SouthDadeFish]

Although I do see what looks like a possible circulation trying to establish itself SW of Key West, here is my problem with this system:



Wind shear is 50 knots over the Central GOMEX and shows no signs of letting up any time soon. I looked at the GFS 200mb forecast and the upper level winds should still be fairly strong over the area for at least the next 36 hours. Even after that time frame, for the next 96 hours there will still be decent westerlies over the Gulf. If anything does develop, all the convection will probably be sheared off to the east and the system will be very sloppy.

This is not a professional forecast, just my opinion.

[tolakram]

Visible loop of the area (highest zoom): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tolakram]

GFS shear forecast shows area of highest shear drifting NW with this possible system, and some favorable areas developing. Mid level shear looks even more favorable, IMO. Nothing very strong, but good enough for some development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I would assume that the area at 24n 89w is from the energy coming up from Central America and the Yucatan.

The Euro and even the GFS to some degree show that it is from the vorticity/disturbance now moving into the SE GOM from Caribbean disturbance.

[NDG]

My current discussion:

Nice vorticity this morning north of western Cuba, right by the trough of surface low pressure. This is the area that will be moving WNW towards the central GOM positioning north of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday, thus why the NHC has tentatively schedule a reco. plane to investigate that area by Friday afternoon.

I would expect that the area will be declared Invest 96L if not by this evening by tomorrow morning as convection should increase around the current vorticity as it meets the moisture coming in from the eastern Pac and the Caribbean moisture catches up to it once again.

Models now agree that it will be turning towards the NE as a trough of low pressure deepens across the eastern US this weekend, pulling up the system with it, with the GFS being the fastest (making landfall north of Tampa Sunday morning) and the Euro being the slowest with the turn, making landfall Monday evening. It seems to me that the GFS is way too fast. The CMC is the CMC, it always seems to want to make a system gain too much lattitude way too fast.

I don't expect for this system to become more than a moderate to strong tropical storm due to light to moderate SW windshear due to a pesky UL trough that will be located in the NW GOM according to last night's Euro, but a weak hurricane is not out of the question with such warm SSTs. Looks like dry air may not be too much of a problem, if the Euro is right.

But one thing for sure, more heavy rains for the Peninsula of FL is a sure bet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

My guess for first sign of LLC:



Clouds seem to be nearly stationary on the south side of that area.

from this loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There is reason to be concerned about this disturbance, in my opinion. Sea Surface Temperatures are a degree above average across the entire Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Values there are well above-average compared to last year. There is a large loop current that the storm will pass over eventually as well. The Texas "death ridge" is no longer in place, so the Gulf of Mexico should be quite moist as system enters. Taking a look at the GFS and NAEFS 250 wind forecasts, wind shear is expected to drop near or below 10 knots in a few days.

The only negative factor I could find is that this disturbance will take a while to spin up due to its broadness and monsoonal origins.

[northjaxpro]

Pretty good analysis NDG. That pretty much sums up the situation. Florida peninsula in for lots more rain going into the weekend for sure.

[tailgater]

Center Fix on 6/22/12 @ 1800Z

http://www.fallsky.com/96l/1.jpg

I think they picked that area because it just about the center of Gulf, with the models changing there tune almost daily who knows where it will be, if anything does try to develop.

[ocala]

My current discussion:

Nice vorticity this morning north of western Cuba, right by the trough of surface low pressure. This is the area that will be moving WNW towards the central GOM positioning north of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday, thus why the NHC has tentatively schedule a reco. plane to investigate that area by Friday afternoon.

I would expect that the area will be declared Invest 96L if not by this evening by tomorrow morning as convection should increase around the current vorticity as it meets the moisture coming in from the eastern Pac and the Caribbean moisture catches up to it once again.

Models now agree that it will be turning towards the NE as a trough of low pressure deepens across the eastern US this weekend, pulling up the system with it, with the GFS being the fastest (making landfall north of Tampa Sunday morning) and the Euro being the slowest with the turn, making landfall Monday evening. It seems to me that the GFS is way too fast. The CMC is the CMC, it always seems to want to make a system gain too much lattitude way too fast.

I don't expect for this system to become more than a moderate to strong tropical storm due to light to moderate SW windshear due to a pesky UL trough that will be located in the NW GOM according to last night's Euro, but a weak hurricane is not out of the question with such warm SSTs. Looks like dry air may not be too much of a problem, if the Euro is right.

But one thing for sure, more heavy rains for the Peninsula of FL is a sure bet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wow! Didn't see that coming. Then again I'm not as knowledgeable as you guys. A possible tropical storm for the weekend? Yeah, I'm on board with that.

[Sanibel]

BOC might grab the center.

[canes04]

Agree Sanibel. The energy from both systems will converge by tomorrow.
Intersting setup.

[boca]

Agree Sanibel. The energy from both systems will converge by tomorrow.
Intersting setup.

I think thats why the NHC chose 24n 89w cause both areas should merge into that area

[SFLcane]

Masters thoughts this morning...http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2126

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.

[tailgater]

Make that 4 of us that are thinking along those lines of the convergence.

Some old MLC's from last nite.

[boca]

:uarrow: Make that 4 of us that are thinking along those lines of the convergence.

Some old MLC's from last nite.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy.php

Tailgater is that current or radar from last night

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW shows best rotation NW of Cuba.

Live image (unfortunately)

[tailgater]

That's current

[xcool22]

I'm really thinking the gulf mx closed this years imo