NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

I'm really thinking the gulf mx closed this years imo

Any reasoning for that?

[xcool22]

cycloneye yes .ridge is in place.

[Nikki]

I'm really thinking the gulf mx closed this years imo

Do you have meteorological data to back this up? I am just curious of why you would say this.

[xcool22]

Nikki not really lmaoo

[xcool22]

back to weather .thanks

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Breezy here in St. Petersburg. This system looks like one of those large areas of disturbed weather that take a few days to really organize. It will be interesting to watch.

[boca]

Why would you say that because of shear which will lessen as time goes on.
Texas doesn't have that surpressing high pressure over them like they did last year, I think the GOM willbe more active this year.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to keep in mind is that if the shear lessens even a little and this low is stationary and especially once it begins to move NE being picked up by the Trough it will counter the degree in which the westerly shear is affecting it. The warm and deep SST's and all the energy here could support a sheared TC if the shear is under 20kts especially once it begins moving NE.

[Dean4Storms]

12z NAM..... Lots of water and keeps this tracking westward toward upper TX Coast.

I know it's the NAM.....

http://foxwx.com/weather/nam/nam2012062 ... _pwat.html

[boca]

Where is the trough now that is supposed to pick are low up to the NE?

[SFLcane]

Where is the trough now that is supposed to pick are low up to the NE?

Few days a pretty strong trof coming towards the Mid Atlantic will try to recurve this mess towards florida.

[boca]

Where is the trough now that is supposed to pick are low up to the NE?

Few days a pretty strong trough coming toward the Mid Atlantic will try to recurve this mess towards florida.

I just answered my own question I read the Mt Holly/Philadelphia weather discussion and they have a strong cold front pushing thru them on Friday which makes sense now.

[SFLcane]

Where is the trough now that is supposed to pick are low up to the NE?

Few days a pretty strong trough coming toward the Mid Atlantic will try to recurve this mess towards florida.

I just answered my own question I read the Mt Holly/Philadelphia weather discussion and they have a strong cold front pushing thru them on Friday which makes sense now.

NWS Miami earlier this morning...

Models are in slightly better agreement with the evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model is now agreeing with the GFS, depicting this Low pressure system getting absorbed by a disturbance in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere .

[jlauderdal]

My current discussion:

Nice vorticity this morning north of western Cuba, right by the trough of surface low pressure. This is the area that will be moving WNW towards the central GOM positioning north of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday, thus why the NHC has tentatively schedule a reco. plane to investigate that area by Friday afternoon.

I would expect that the area will be declared Invest 96L if not by this evening by tomorrow morning as convection should increase around the current vorticity as it meets the moisture coming in from the eastern Pac and the Caribbean moisture catches up to it once again.

Models now agree that it will be turning towards the NE as a trough of low pressure deepens across the eastern US this weekend, pulling up the system with it, with the GFS being the fastest (making landfall north of Tampa Sunday morning) and the Euro being the slowest with the turn, making landfall Monday evening. It seems to me that the GFS is way too fast. The CMC is the CMC, it always seems to want to make a system gain too much lattitude way too fast.

I don't expect for this system to become more than a moderate to strong tropical storm due to light to moderate SW windshear due to a pesky UL trough that will be located in the NW GOM according to last night's Euro, but a weak hurricane is not out of the question with such warm SSTs. Looks like dry air may not be too much of a problem, if the Euro is right.

But one thing for sure, more heavy rains for the Peninsula of FL is a sure bet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the heavy rain part of your forecast already verified, good work..

[boca]

That shortwave which is suppossed to pick this mess up is just entering the midwest cutting thru Iowa at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Low pressure SW of Key West is becomming more defined. 96L at anytime.

[Rgv20]

Dont look now but the 12zGFS has the Tropical Low thru 72hrs about 150 miles WSW of the 0z run...

[SFLcane]

Dont look now but the 12zGFS has the Tropical Low thru 72hrs about 150 miles WSW of the 0z run...

One big strung out mess as it gets entangled with the trof. Rain for florida.

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs ..90 hours....very similar to the Canadian approaching the northern Gulf coast

[Ivanhater]

Much more defined low on the 12z Gfs


96 hours