NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

#541 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:03 am

102 hours

#542 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:08 am

114 hours

#543 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:12 am

Missing the trough @ 114 hours????

#544 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:14 am

Looking like a Tampa area problem on the 12z so far!

#545 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:14 am

Sits around and moving NE

#546 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:17 am

I've got it into Tampa at 996mb.

Weatherfreak000 · #547 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:18 am

Talk about huge shifts in the models to the east. Jeff Masters would be wrong if GFS is right, as the NGOM may indeed get some action from Debby, and as hot as it has been we won't be complaining. One thing is for sure, the usual synoptic pattern not only in the GOM right now but the entire basin is quite different than I expected. No "Death Ridge", almost nonexistent SAL near Africa and no swarm of TUTTS.

Odds are starting to fade for WGOM though, and I don't need to see the EURO to figure that.

#548 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:19 am

I would guess anyone east of the low is gonna get drenched. looks like a very wet period for the florida peninsula.

#549 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:20 am

It's becoming clear that from the FL Panhandle down to Tampa area really needs to monitor this as we head into the weekend IMO!

This is just my opinion and you should get all your info. from official sources!

#550 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:20 am

That is one hell of a trough off the Eastcoast..wow

PTrackerLA · #551 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:21 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Talk about huge shifts in the models to the east. Jeff Masters would be wrong if GFS is right, as the NGOM may indeed get some action from Debby, and as hot as it has been we won't be complaining. One thing is for sure, the usual synoptic pattern not only in the GOM right now but the entire basin is quite different than I expected. No "Death Ridge", almost nonexistent SAL near Africa and no swarm of TUTTS.

Odds are starting to fade for WGOM though, and I don't need to see the EURO to figure that.

Not so sure about the death ridge not returning. Our rain chances have vanished for the next 7 days with temperatures creeping up to the upper 90s by the end of the period. Thankfully we've had over 8" so far this June so we could stand to have a dry week. I see virtually no chance of us getting precip from this system unless the NAM is correct :roll:

. I'm hoping this isn't the start of a summer trend...

#552 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:22 am

@150 hrs it emerges off the east coast of Florida near the Cape and begins to deepen.

#553 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:24 am

Dean4Storms wrote:@150 hrs it emerges off the east coast of Florida near the Cape and begins to deepen.

By then is extratropical.

#554 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:25 am

My Bad....Down to 995mb before landfall.......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06138.gif

With the GFS showing a potent TS, certainly a hurricane is not out of the realm of possibilities!

#555 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:25 am

Saved MIMIC-TPW (Imageshack allows it with a yearly membership)

#556 Postby **Rgv20** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:28 am

Was it me or did the 12zGFS almost had the trough missing this potential development in the GOM.....Going to be interesting what the Ensembles have to say.

EDIT: I meant early on the run because 120+hrs it has a major trough for June!

Weatherfreak000 · #557 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:30 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Talk about huge shifts in the models to the east. Jeff Masters would be wrong if GFS is right, as the NGOM may indeed get some action from Debby, and as hot as it has been we won't be complaining. One thing is for sure, the usual synoptic pattern not only in the GOM right now but the entire basin is quite different than I expected. No "Death Ridge", almost nonexistent SAL near Africa and no swarm of TUTTS.

Odds are starting to fade for WGOM though, and I don't need to see the EURO to figure that.

Not so sure about the death ridge not returning. Our rain chances have vanished for the next 7 days with temperatures creeping up to the upper 90s by the end of the period. Thankfully we've had over 8" so far this June so we could stand to have a dry week. I see virtually no chance of us getting precip from this system unless the NAM is correct . I'm hoping this isn't the start of a summer trend...

No reason to lose hope yet! Technically the models are actually trending towards us...not away from us. Storms strike the NGOM this time of year, and we only need debby to meander close under us to get a few bands to stave off some of this horrific heat.

Invest Tag please Navy, lol.

#558 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:31 am

Should be an Invest this afternoon or this evening at the latest.

#559 Postby **lrak** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:32 am

The BOC seems to be turning more than the area of interest.

#560 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:33 am

Rgv20 wrote:Was it me or did the 12zGFS almost had the trough missing this potential development in the GOM.....Going to be interesting what the Ensembles have to say.

EDIT: I meant early on the run because 120+hrs it has a major trough for June!

It did..it sat for a while but the trough deepened and got pulled NE.....all that will work out but the main thing is the GFS finally has an organized strengthening system in the Gulf now

NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

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