NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Dean4Storms]

Was it me or did the 12zGFS almost had the trough missing this potential development in the GOM.....Going to be interesting what the Ensembles have to say.

EDIT: I meant early on the run because 120+hrs it has a major trough for June!

It misses it initially but then the trough digs back and picks it up on Tues.

[tropicwatch]

First thing though is that upper level winds need to settle down. It is pretty heavy up there.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

Tropicwatch

[tolakram]

Wide live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Speed it up, and find the dominant swirl.

[Weatherfreak000]

Was it me or did the 12zGFS almost had the trough missing this potential development in the GOM.....Going to be interesting what the Ensembles have to say.

EDIT: I meant early on the run because 120+hrs it has a major trough for June!

It did..it sat for a while but the trough deepened and got pulled NE.....all that will work out but the main thing is the GFS finally has an organized strengthening system in the Gulf now

Good to see your insightful outlook Ivan! Here we go again! lol.


Here's another interesting thought, assume the low forms in BOC or perhaps Debby does miss the trough? Hmmmm.....Mexico to Key West still looks good....but the cone now starts narrowing every six hours...

[Ivanhater]

Good to see you all again as well....4 named storms before June is up....I think that caught everyone off guard.

[Stormcenter]

Wow that's more like a Fall/Winter type trough. I've got to see that pan out before I believe it. IMO

[Ivanhater]

Here we go

[Ivanhater]

Can someone post the link where they tag an Invest...I can't seem to find my link anymore.

[baytownwx]

Updated his blog this morning.....after the gfs 12z run looking like trough almost missing development in GOM (but eventually does take it)....hmm it leaves some room for NGOM for some action. Although I still am leaning towards going off into fl.

http://tropicaltidbits.com

[cycloneye]

Can someone post the link where they tag an Invest...I can't seem to find my link anymore.

Here it is.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Ivanhater]

Can someone post the link where they tag an Invest...I can't seem to find my link anymore.

Here it is.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Thanks Luis!

[boca]

Here we go

I see a swirl off off the western Yucatan as well as 150 wsw off Key West

[SunnyThoughts]

Can definitely see the swirl on Ivan's satellite above for sure. Looks as though someone is in for quite a bit of rain, hopefully not much wind to go along with it. Can't believe we are possibly/probably looking at the 4th named storm of the season before the end of June...just amazing. Nice to see everybody..and welcome to all the new folks. Everybody take care and get prepared now for what just may be a busier season than everyone thought.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET takes it to South Texas as a 1003mb low on Wednesday Morning. Sorry cant post a pic as I'm at work.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... 20&fixhh=1

[ROCK]

IMO, the dominant swirl looks lto be over the Yucatan....that goo over Key West is a broad mess still. Still say one of these are going to develope....just an odd set up to me....

[ROCK]

12zUKMET takes it to South Texas as a 1003mb low on Wednesday Morning. Sorry cant post a pic as I'm at work.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... 20&fixhh=1

nice model consensus....

[Rgv20]

12GFS and 12zUKMET are having lunch as we speak lol

[South Texas Storms]

Rgv, look at today's 12z cmc run...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

wow more model consensus....I am shocked the models are having a hard time...

I am betting the NHC doesnt know which area to invest right now....You have the YUC swirl w/ banding features then you have a broad pile of goo over Key West....

[ROCK]

CMC takes out Galveston then hugs the coast into STexas.....nice....