NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Cuda17]

The BOC swirl has my vote, but I am biased, being from Texas and all Looks like us Texas folk are playing up the BOC swirl while the Florida folk are playing up the NW Carribean/SE GOM swirl! Either way, ain't it fun???

[Ntxw]

No wonder models have had a hard time. Two different areas of important convection but which to pick. I still believe the Euro had it right several days ago of a weak area of low pressure going into northern MX/S Texas. It's notorious for catching first and losing it 3-5 days out. Canadian is just whack.

[tolakram]

120 hour (144 for the 0z euro) model maps. May the best model win.

all saved

[Aric Dunn]

the low off of cuba will be the one to watch it is drifing NW and should close off later today.

[Ivanhater]

GFS into Tampa
CMC into Houston

What a fun week setting up....what is concerning is all the models are coming into line of a stronger system

Gulf Coast is officially on Bear Watch

[ROCK]

The BOC swirl has my vote, but I am biased, being from Texas and all Looks like us Texas folk are playing up the BOC swirl while the Florida folk are playing up the NW Carribean/SE GOM swirl! Either way, ain't it fun???

nah, we dont do that in here....we are all family...

[Weatherfreak000]

Gonna have to wait on the EURO it seems.....IMO this is still probably a Florida issue as I think the Yucatan area isn't the area to watch.

[floridasun78]

i see that their good spin over Yucatan look like it be se gulf or nw carribben

[jdray]

NWS JAX is not sure either, but looks like at least a good rainmaker for a good portion of the penisula.

Is it just me, or does Florida seem to be the target again this year so far?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil=AFD&sid=JAX

FXUS62 KJAX 200849
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
449 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY


STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL THUS
MAKE FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. A STRAY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER COULD IMPACT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS (20-25%) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADS UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND WATERWAYS...INLETS AND RIVERS DUE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 MPH. FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TODAY. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT SHAKY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT LEAST SHOW SOME WEAK
DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES NORTHWEST FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HIGH
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WOULD ARGUE FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN
ANY EVENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD AT LEAST INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SCATTERED NATURE.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIP WILL
HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WILL
CONFINE POPS TO OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND KEEP THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AT LEAST
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
THE GFS SHOWS THE GULF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY THE GULF LOW WILL FIND ITSELF CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND IT IS NOT CLEAR AS TO WHETHER IT WILL GET PICKED
UP BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OR
WHETHER IT WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE AND STRONG MID
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY AND UNTIL THE
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WE WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GOING FORECAST WILL FAVOR A HOT AND DRY
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH A SUGGESTION OF MORE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

[cycloneye]

GFS into Tampa
CMC into Houston

What a fun week setting up....what is concerning is all the models are coming into line of a stronger system

No mention of NOGAPS means nothing showing right? Where does UKMET track it?

[NDG]

Nice to see the 12z GFS join last nights euro with timing of the possible storm. Now let's hope the Euro stays consistent before I go insane with their past inconsistencies.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS into Tampa
CMC into Houston

What a fun week setting up....what is concerning is all the models are coming into line of a stronger system

No mention of NOGAPS means nothing showing right? Where does UKMET track it?

12z UKMET has it into Brownsville as a 1003mb low in 144 hours.

[floridasun78]

if Yucatan low win that pull stormy weather toward gulf away from fl. if sw keywest low win that mean rainy event for florida

[N2Storms]

[quote="Cuda17"]The BOC swirl has my vote, but I am biased, being from Texas and all Looks like us Texas folk are playing up the BOC swirl while the Florida folk are playing up the NW Carribean/SE GOM swirl! Either way, ain't it fun??? [/quote]



LOL...Florida posters typically post models that show a TC heading in to Florida and Texas posters typically post models that show a TC heading in to Texas. Been that way for as long as I've been here and I doubt that it will change any time soon.

[Ivanhater]

It seems like we have a tough deal with where the low will set up and where it is positioned with the trough. Invest please!

[djmikey]

The BOC swirl has my vote, but I am biased, being from Texas and all Looks like us Texas folk are playing up the BOC swirl while the Florida folk are playing up the NW Carribean/SE GOM swirl! Either way, ain't it fun???

LOL...Florida posters typically post models that show a TC heading in to Florida and Texas posters typically post models that show a TC heading in to Texas. Been that way for as long as I've been here and I doubt that it will change any time soon.

LOL...it's the battle between Texas Vs. Florida!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm thinking two possibilities.

Possibility 1: The GFS model posted by Ivanhater on Page 28 of this thread shows a 996 mb low making landfall near Tampa. That is a strong tropical storm. Again it is only one model and one run so I'm not going to freak out. But still it
bears watching.

Possibility 2: The storm goes towards Texas or LA or somewhere in the W. GOM by early next week giving them a stronger storm, my guess below 990 mb and in the developing stages (today-Friday) brings a lot of squalls through Florida before going West.

Either way, Florida gets heavy rain and with possibility #2 Texas gets hit sometime next week by a stronger storm.

[floridasun78]

that low over Yucatan moving ne if i see it right

[Weatherfreak000]

The BOC low has a less than 1% chance of winning this battle. The wind shear is just too strong. After that when you have to factor in land interaction, the odds just seem far too low, and the best models around all appear to corroborate with that.

Not impossible, just unlikely.

[Aric Dunn]

The BOC low has a less than 1% chance of winning this battle. The wind shear is just too strong. After that when you have to factor in land interaction, the odds just seem far too low, and the best models around all appear to corroborate with that.

Not impossible, just unlikely.

well its mostly the fact that its much much smaller than the large circulation pattern in the low in the eastern gulf that and the yucatan is mostly midlevel. it will likely start rotating around the larger low and get stretched out as that one deepens.