NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Evil Jeremy]

Given the solid model support for development, I'm surprised this hasn't been tagged yet. Should be by the end of the day.

[bayoubebe]

Hi helpful people. Can someone please explain to me why here in NOLA we have strong winds? We have the last several days. Is it related at all to what you all are talking about in this thread? The blobs of potential development?

Also, will this effect our weather in southern louisiana for the weekend? My local forecasts shows wind, but not much of a rain chance. Just wanted yall's opinions, as it seems more accurate.

thanks!

[Ivanhater]

Oh my



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[Aric Dunn]

Oh my

[mg]http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/9809/12zeurotropical500mbslpk.gif[/img]

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Looks like 55kts to maybe 60.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anti-cyclone has formed at 17N 90W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

that would be our YUC swirl....

REady to see what that will do over water.... This 'swirl' has been hanging in there the last few days. If that shear were to die down a bit, could be interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Eastern gulf low beginning to become more defined see some westerly moving clouds now. wont be long as it rotates and drift NW should deepen some.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Ivanhater]

Details are not that important right now but all the models now have a rapidly deepening system in the Gulf now...concerning

[South Texas Storms]

You more concerned about the gaining consensus in strength or the lack of consensus in track?

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:

You more concerned about the gaining consensus in strength or the lack of consensus in track?

Models coming into agreement on a strengthening storm in the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

Not far from not being picked up fully...

This should be fun in the Gulf this week



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[northjaxpro]

Details are not that important right now but all the models now have a rapidly deepening system in the Gulf now...concerning

Yeah, I noticed that too. It would not be very surprising should that happen as even in marginally conducive environment, the system can spin up into a potential strong TS or even a minimal hurricane. GOM has plenty of 85-86 degree SSTs and that loop current for this system to feed upon in the coming days, especially since it won't be moving fast intially in the short term and if the shear can lessen just a bit to at least marginal levels.

[bayoubebe]

Not far from not being picked up fully...

This should be fun in the Gulf this week



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Which states, besides Florida, do you see getting the effects of this?

[ROCK]

FWIW- the eastern low is barfing outflow boundaries all over the place....I dont see any consolidation or for that matter anything at the surface. Also the YUC swirl is off shore. The MLC is tilted from West to East with the MLC over land. The lower midlevel clouds sit a good ways offshore....

[92sman]

It has been windy down here in Key West from that "wave" that's been hovering over us.

We got hit pretty hard with some heavy rain and winds yesterday. Winds were probably clocking up to 50 mph at one point.

[Zanthe]

Which states, besides Florida, do you see getting the effects of this?

At this point, everyone along the Gulf needs to keep an eye on this (these?) low pressure centers.

[Cyclenall]

Oh my

*Image*

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King Euro hath spoken. Now that it shows this, my interest level has shot up considerably (after waiting an eternity). The 00z Canadian was a doozy in terms of track and speed. I think this one (Euro run) is a hurricane strength storm so with the analogs pointing near June 1957, watch out.

[jeff]

I do not see anything in the eastern Gulf or W/NW Caribbean that would be a surface circulation...a board ill defined trough axis. There is a very broad surface circulation near/over the eastern Bay of Campeche/western Yucatan.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

FWIW- the eastern low is barfing outflow boundaries all over the place....I dont see any consolidation or for that matter anything at the surface. Also the YUC swirl is off shore. The MLC is tilted from West to East with the MLC over land. The lower midlevel clouds sit a good ways offshore....

Agree with you Rock. That mess around Cuba is not doing anything anytime soon. 50+ knots of shear all around southern gulf currently and will only SLOWLY subside to moderate range over the next 3-4 days. MLC now emerging in the BOC is much more impressive looking and if convection can sustain itself has a much better chance to develop more quickly than that other mess in the near term. Obvious why the Euro is showing it in 24-48 hrs.

[ROCK]

I do not see anything in the eastern Gulf or W/NW Caribbean that would be a surface circulation...a board ill defined trough axis. There is a very broad surface circulation near/over the eastern Bay of Campeche/western Yucatan.

yep I agree....or have been agreeing for the past 6 hours.....

[tolakram]

Just a swirl? Speed loop up for full effect.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10