NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

Even the Euro has the low spinning up in the central Gulf before getting pulled/consolidating NE. It does not necessarily have to form in the eastern Gulf to head that way...that is what the latest Euro is showing anyway

[ROCK]

Even the Euro has the low spinning up in the central Gulf before getting pulled/consolidating NE. It does not necessarily have to form in the eastern Gulf to head that way...that is what the latest Euro is showing anyway

make sense because the INVEST flight was labled at 24N and 90W....the issue will be is that trof deep enough to pick this up....I have doubts...timing like always is important.

[Ivanhater]

Even the Euro has the low spinning up in the central Gulf before getting pulled/consolidating NE. It does not necessarily have to form in the eastern Gulf to head that way...that is what the latest Euro is showing anyway

make sense because the INVEST flight was labled at 24N and 90W....the issue will be is that trof deep enough to pick this up....I have doubts...timing like always is important.

Exactly...the system is already in the Gulf and the Euro does not show it making landfall in the Gulf until 7 days from now! Wow

[Aric Dunn]

Even the Euro has the low spinning up in the central Gulf before getting pulled/consolidating NE. It does not necessarily have to form in the eastern Gulf to head that way...that is what the latest Euro is showing anyway

make sense because the INVEST flight was labled at 24N and 90W....the issue will be is that trof deep enough to pick this up....I have doubts...timing like always is important.

which is exactly where the eastern low will be in two days since its moving that direction.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Even though this is 7 days out and the models will likely shift significantly, I'm going to activate the magical Tampa Shield to keep it away from Tampa. Wish me luck

The Shield worked last time with Charley '04. Keep shielding us, honey.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=TS Chris getting stronger per 18z Best Track. Go over there to see the details.

[dixiebreeze]

Station LCIY2 - Little Cayman Research Centre, Cayman Islands

Map data ©2012 - Terms of UseLarge icon indicates selected station.
Stations with recent data
Stations with no data in last 8 hours
(24 hours for tsunami stations) Disclaimer


Owned and maintained by Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Fixed Structure Weather Station
19.699 N 80.061 W (19°41'56" N 80°3'38" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 5.9 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 5.9 m above site elevation
Sea temp depth: 4.6 m below site elevation
Water depth: 6.7 m

Conditions at LCIY2 as of
(1:00 pm EST)
1800 GMT on 06/20/2012
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 18.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.9 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Weatherfreak000]

FWIW- the eastern low is barfing outflow boundaries all over the place....I dont see any consolidation or for that matter anything at the surface. Also the YUC swirl is off shore. The MLC is tilted from West to East with the MLC over land. The lower midlevel clouds sit a good ways offshore....

Are you seeing the big picture here I wonder Rock? I don't think it matters what happens....the energy is going to go East far more likely than not.....or do you disagree with the EURO?

P.S. EURO seems to me to see the two areas try to combine, with the low to the East ultimately winning.

[tolakram]

NHC has the eastern area tagged, and there appears to be a low level vortex developing in that area.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

This is also where the Canadian, which I find reliable under 72 hours (and not at all passed that) shows the first closed low.

IMO keep a close eye on this area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

FWIW- the eastern low is barfing outflow boundaries all over the place....I dont see any consolidation or for that matter anything at the surface. Also the YUC swirl is off shore. The MLC is tilted from West to East with the MLC over land. The lower midlevel clouds sit a good ways offshore....

Are you seeing the big picture here I wonder Rock? I don't think it matters what happens....the energy is going to go East far more likely than not.....or do you disagree with the EURO?

P.S. EURO seems to me to see the two areas try to combine, with the low to the East ultimately winning.

Pfffttt...am I seeing the big picture?....just been here since 2004 and now at 6000 posts...I always look at the BIG picture... I see it as Jeff the MET said a few pages back...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Weatherfreak000"][quote="ROCK"]FWIW- the eastern low is barfing outflow boundaries all over the place....I dont see any consolidation or for that matter anything at the surface. Also the YUC swirl is off shore. The MLC is tilted from West to East with the MLC over land. The lower midlevel clouds sit a good ways offshore....[/quote]

Are you seeing the big picture here I wonder Rock? I don't think it matters what happens....the energy is going to go East far more likely than not.....or do you disagree with the EURO?

P.S. EURO seems to me to see the two areas try to combine, with the low to the East ultimately winning.[/quote]


I believe he is not buying in to the fact that the Trof will be deep enough to shunt whatever it is off to the NE...who knows, he may end up being right. All I really care about is getting some decent rain out of it but given that our neck of the woods always seems to be on the outside looking in, I'm not holding my breath.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC has the eastern area tagged, and there appears to be a low level vortex developing in that area.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

This is also where the Canadian, which I find reliable under 72 hours (and not at all passed that) shows the first closed low.

IMO keep a close eye on this area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thats exactly where you should be watching also surface obs show a developing circ. increased curvature to the low level structure. its void of convection but that will change.

[Ivanhater]

Now where is my Invest?

[Ivanhater]

Also a friendly reminder to keep it respectful in here

[tolakram]

I broke my refresh button already.

[Aric Dunn]

I broke my refresh button already.

I locked my computer up a little while ago. lol

[northjaxpro]

Now where is my Invest?

Ivan, I think we will see it get tagged sometime later tonight.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does anyone remember a time where we had two 'storms' in the gulf? Ever happened?

[cycloneye]

I broke my refresh button already.

My finger is very red.

[Ivanhater]

HPC Final Update:

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.